Projections

FanGraphs has released its projected standings and playoff odds for 2025. The Giants, as you might expect, are predicted to be a .500 (81-81) team!

The NL West will be dominated by the Dodgers, again no surprise there, and the second-best team is expected to be the Diamondbacks. That's not unreasonable given their two top starters and their quality lineup. What's interesting to Giants fans is that the Padres are looking vulnerable. The Giants have a real shot at third place.

 

 

Sorry for the poor picture. Click the links above to see the whole thing. Or click on the image to enlarge it.

Going from a .500 team to a playoff team will require at least five more wins. Ten would be better. Last year it took 86 wins (Tigers and Royals) in the AL and it took 89 wins (Mets and Braves) in the NL to make the cut.

Are the 2025 Giants ten games better than the 2024 team? I don't see it. A five game improvement looks possible with the addition of Adames and (we hope) bounce back years from Doval and Ray and continued improvement from Harrison, Fitzgerald, and Ramos.

The 2025 team is relying on internal solutions. The young corps needs to step up and contribute!

--M.C.

p.s. David Pinto at Baseball Musings had a post a while back with a proposal to re-arrange the divisions so more teams have a chance at the playoffs. It's a little rough, but it's a cool idea. It at least addresses some of the things Zo mentioned in his last post.

Upgrades

I think the Giants should sign free agent right-hander Jack Flaherty to a short-term deal. (I'll take almost anyone on a short-term deal.) He's going to give you 25-30 starts with above-average results. Flaherty's market is depressed and he needs to prove himself with a good year and then opt-out. Think Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodon. (He's not as good as those guys, but that's okay.) It's never bad to have a surplus of starting pitchers.

Right now the Giants are expecting the kind of performance I described for Flaherty from four guys: Ray, Verlander, Hicks, and Harrison. How many of those guys are going to deliver 2+ WAR? Ray did it last in 2022, Verlander in 2023, and neither Hicks nor Harrison pulled it off last year. After that they have a nice group of youngsters—by definition unproven—like Roupp, Birdsong, Black, Rodriguez, etc. I like this group of hurlers but there's a heapin' pile of uncertainty there! Even Flaherty, an eight-year veteran, has exhibited big swings in seasonal WAR totals. There are red flags with him, like declining velocity, but he'd be relatively cheap. He's not going to get the multi-year deal he wanted. And San Francisco is a great place for pitchers.

Really all of this is to say I'd like to see one more starting pitcher added to the mix. I don't believe free agent veterans "block" prospects and young players. It's a performance-oriented workplace. If you deliver the goods you get to play. If the youngsters want time on the field then they have to shine on the field. Am I right? And it's just money. The Giants have plenty. They can afford to take a risk on a veteran pitcher because they need the depth to compete with the other teams in the NL West.

I think they need another position player/DH type for some more thump in the lineup. Or at least some more competition in Spring Training. Somebody like Randal Grichuk is a free agent and he's actually been linked to the Giants. Austin Hays, Tommy Pham, Jorge Polanco, and Paul DeJong are other examples of low-cost free agent players available at this point. Alex Bregman, Ha-Seong Kim, and Pete Alonso are the "big names" left on the board. None would be a fit. Bregman because of length and cost, Kim because Adames and Fitzgerald are already at SS an 2B, and Alonso because he's too limited, and they have Wade and Flores as a platoon pair.

These aren't exciting propositions. We aren't buying a new car, just getting some upgrades on the old one. Right now the Giants look like they've looked for the last three seasons: fair-to-middling with an outside shot at being good enough to get a post-season berth. A couple of breakout seasons from the youth brigade and it's a different story. I know we'd all like to see that!

--M.C.

Baseball, We Have a Problem

Roki Sasaki decided to sign a MLB contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers, because, of course he did.  Just like the last best pitcher available, Yamamoto, and that other pitcher, Snell.  Oh, and Ohtani.  Not to forget Betts, Freeman and all the other stars.  And thus, baseball gets to be a little less of a game and more of a race between merger and acquisition specialists to see who wins.  The game becomes incidental. And that's a problem, because while some Angelenos, even if they can no longer afford to go to a game, may think it's fine to watch their team pile up superstars and, maybe, trophies for years, they might not notice one-time fans of the sport slowly slipping away.

I see the sport devolving into a few oligarchs, the Mets, the Yankees, and the Dodgers, and a few teams who can make a splash on occasion, and maybe win it all, like Philadelphia, Chicago, Boston, and probably San Francisco, but not sustain the level of investment that it takes to do this year in and year out.  Then there are the teams that are willing to spend money, but have to be selective, like Arizona, and St. Louis.  Below them are the teams that don't really stand a chance.  Sure, they might sneak into an expanded playoff format on occasion, but unless luck plays a much larger part than anyone who ever reads statistics imagines,  they aren't going to win.  Finally, at the bottom are teams that don't care about winning, they exist as developmental and feeder teams for other clubs and are making money from revenue sharing, like the A's and Rockies.

Major League Baseball probably doesn't care, but it should.  Tickets are expensive, but the better teams seem to sell tickets fairly well.  I spend money on entertainment of various sorts, but a fundamental principle of sports is that the outcome is not pre-determined.  And as soon as that premise, real or imagined, slips away, there is no point in bothering to observe the sport any more.  Or, to put it more accurately, as soon as that premise appears to be no longer valid, there is no sport anymore.  And it seems to me that, thanks to LA co-opting the WBC Championship team, that premise is definitely open to question.  I think the Giants have an interesting team of young players (finally).  But I'm thinking we could all save time by just giving LA the NL West title right now.  I will certainly be watching less.  And for someone raised as a baseball fan from my earliest memories, that's saying something.  Baseball should address these inequalities that are becoming more and more prevalent, or they will become a minor sport. 

The 2025 Giants: starting pitching

It all starts with Logan Webb, of course. He's penciled in for 4+ WAR and if he doesn't do that then the Giants are in a world of hurt. He's started 33 games in back-to-back seasons while throwing 200+ innings in both. He gets guys to hit it on the ground, keeps the ball in the yard, and doesn't give away freebies. He's one of the best pitchers in the game. He's 28 and signed through 2028.

The next guy in line is Robbie Ray. He's probably the most important person on this list! The Giants need something from Ray. They need length. He needs to start lots of games and throw lots of innings. He made 32 starts in both 2021 (193 IP) and 2022 (189 IP) before his surgery. He's 33 now and won't likely top those numbers ever again but he should be healthy and able to pitch a full season. FanGraphs projects him for 28 starts and 161 IP with a 3.95 ERA (his career mark is 3.98). That's about 2 WAR. Ray is a high-K pitcher but struggles a bit with the long ball. If he can keep his walks down he can stay in games and give the Giants some quality innings.

Kyle Harrison and Jordan Hicks fill the next two spots. Both are hard to project. Harrison is only 23. He was one of the top lefty prospects in MLB when he made his debut. We saw some flashes of that talent in an up-and-down year for the youngster (24 starts, 4.56 ERA). He gave up too many hits and too many long balls but he has the strikeout stuff to succeed. With more experience and maturity he has a good chance to evolve into a top starter. There's lots of upside with Harrison. Hicks suffered a Tale of Two Seasons last year. He was very effective as a starter early on, then struggled badly and was used in relief. He's the perfect swingman—think Yusmeiro Petit—but it seems guys don't like that role. Hicks threw a career-high 109-2/3 IP in 2024. Can we expect him to push that up to 150? Hard to know.

So it is easy to see why the Giants pursued Corbin Burnes and ultimately signed Justin Verlander. Last year the starters didn't get it done and the bullpen got over-worked. They need innings! Lots more innings from the rotation.

The Giants have a pool of guys who could have filled the fifth starter spot and may ultimately do that before the season is out. Hayden Birdsong is the obvious leading candidate—he had 16 starts last year and showed some real potential. Keaton Winn had 12 starts and Mason Black had 8 starts. There's Landen Roupp and Tristan Beck in the mix. There are the three young Carsons in the high minors: Ragsdale, Seymour, and Whisenhunt. It feels like there is a lot of pitching talent in the organization right now and that bodes well for the future.

--M.C.

Justin Verlander

So for half as much money as the Diamondbacks are paying Corbin Burnes the Giants will take a flyer on 42-year old no-doubt-future-HOFer Justin Verlander. He had a 5.48 ERA in 17 starts (90-1/3 IP) last season. You can see this as a desperation move. Buster and The Gang lost out on Burnes and they went to Ye Olde Vintage Shoppe and came back with JV. Hey, it's MLB economics, an entire discipline in itself, who can understand what things cost anymore?

Or, you can see this as an upgrade on Robbie Ray. No disrespect to Robbie, a former Cy Young awardee himself, but this is his role. Dispenser of Leadership and Veteran Savvy Clutchness. Showing the bevy of young arms how to be a major leaguer. Ray, I should note, is getting $25M both this year and next. (Once again it is that goofy Baseball Econ 101.) Both guys will probably put up 2+ WAR and be solid #3-starter types. Alex Cobb put up back-to-back 2.5 WAR seasons with the Giants. Maybe Verlander captures a little of that gritty old-guy-in-a-new-place magic and gives the team a couple dozen starts.

I expected something along these lines when the Burnes thing didn't happen. This is the kind of thing, once again, that the Giants have to do. They can afford to blow $15M! The Dodgers do it all the time. The Giants have to plug the holes and they can't be afraid to make a choice and go forward. The worst outcome is that some young pitchers will have to work a little harder to prove they should push aside established veterans. That's got to make them better players! If they have any brains at all they'll realize having a real superstar in their midst will only help them. Verlander's reputation is that he's "not an asshole" despite his stature in the game and is an approachable teammate. He's got to know as much about pitching as anyone does, don't you think?

Go Giants!

--M.C.

The 2025 Giants, part 3

I think the bullpen will be a strength of the team. I really like both righty Ryan Walker and lefty Erik Miller. Walker threw 80 innings last year and only allowed 50 hits and 18 walks while striking out 99. He even had 10 saves! Miller wasn't quite as dominant in his rookie season and had some command issues (38 BB in 67-1/3 IP) but whiffed 87 and only allowed 50 hits. Both these guys will be hugely important in 2025.

Veteran stalwarts Tyler (righty) and Taylor (lefty) Rogers will be back. The twins are 34 and both are coming off 1+ WAR seasons. Tyler is one of my favorite ballplayers. He's led MLB in appearances three times in his last five seasons and still manages to baffle hitters with his weird delivery. Last year he walked only six batters in 70-1/3 IP!

Camilo Doval was an All-Star closer before last year's disastrous campaign. He's 27 and immensely talented, it's not hard to believe he will bounce back and be a dominant pitcher again.

There are a host of other relievers and we saw all of them in 2024. The top four in IP were Sean Hjelle (27), Randy Rodriguez (24), Landen Roupp (25), and Spencer Bivens (30). There should be some useful arms there. In 2025 they'll need to get more innings out of the starters so they don't wear down the bullpen. I'll look at the rotation in the next post.

--M.C.

The 2025 Giants, part 2

The Giants are lucky to have a young, talented ballplayer at a key infield position. That would be 25-yeaer old Patrick Bailey who is one of the most valuable fielders in MLB. He's a switch-hitter without much of a platoon split but has yet to hit at a league average rate (MLB 2024 was .243/.312/.399) over his 801 career PAs. I suspect he will improve as he hits his prime seasons. His superb work behind the plate makes him a crucial building block for the franchise.

Veterans Matt Chapman and Willy Adames give the Giants middle-of-the-order hitters who are also great fielders. Chapman can be other-worldly at times—we saw him make some sensational plays last season. He's known throughout MLB for his glovework. Newcomer Adames doesn't quite have that same reputation but he's no slouch and looks like a perfect fit. Third base and shortstop are well-covered. Pitchers will enjoy having those guys behind them. Buster Posey believes young players need veteran leaders and role models in the clubhouse and these two guys are ideal for that.

And speaking of young players, Tyler Fitzgerald was a bit of a sensation in 2024, smacking 36 XBH in 96 games and making himself useful all over the diamond. The fanbase really needed an exciting debut from a farmhand and Fitz did his best to fulfill that. Going forward Buster says he will be the starting second baseman in 2025. The projections aren't kind to Fitz and they peg him for a big regression. His high K-rate and .380 BABIP get flagged by the computers, but I'm convinced he's a mature hitter and will make the adjustments. He's 27 so the Giants are capturing his prime seasons. I think if expectations aren't too high on him he can be a solid everyday player with some pop. Adames taking over short and moving Fitz to second base is a smart move. If he's going to stick in the bigs it will be with his big stick!

First base is a bit of a conundrum. LaMonte Wade, Jr. and Wilmer Flores make a pretty good platoon pair but injuries limited them both last season. After a sensational 2023 Wilmer had his worst season in 2024. He's 33 and even though he's one of my favorite ballplayers I think this might be the end for him. He's a free agent next year. Wade once again showed off his excellent on-base skills but his power disappeared. There was talk of trading him. He's also a free agent next year so this is probably his last season in orange-and-black. He just turned 31. We all know about super-prospect lefty slugger Bryce Eldridge. If he lights it up in Spring Training or at AAA he could get the call-up early in the season.

Marco Luciano, Brett Wisely, Casey Schmitt, and David Villar are all on the 40-man roster. Both Schmitt and Villar hit at an above-average rate last year. Villar is 27 and this is probably his last shot with the team as he is out of options. Schmitt looked like he could hit but was a real free-swinger. Lefty Wisely could use some plate discipline as well. Luciano looks over-matched but of course he's only 23.

In the backup catching spot(s) they have both young Blake Sabol and old Tom Murphy in the fold. That will work. Switch-hitting Sabol has shown he can hit at this level and Murphy has a solid track record.

--M.C.

The 2025 Giants, part 1

The Dodgers made another splash, signing KBO IF/OF Hyeseong Kim. He's 25 and profiles much like our very own Jung Hoo Lee. Speaking of Lee, the Giants are counting on him big time. They need a good glove in CF and they need a steady leadoff hitter. We don't know yet if Lee can do that. In 37 games last year he was hitting .262/.310/.331 before his injury. His career line in Korea was .340/.407/.491 which would be phenomenal in MLB. I like to think that will translate into a quality hitter. Certainly we should expect an above-average on-base guy and a strong defender. If he can do that, be a 2-3 WAR player, that would be great.

The same goes for Heliot Ramos. Both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference rate him at 2.3 WAR for last year's .269/.322/.469 in 121 games. Ramos is only 25 so it's not unreasonable to expect him to improve as a hitter. He seems best in left field.

Mike Yastrzemski is a solid bet to deliver 2 WAR in RF. He's done that every year in orange-and-black. He's 34, however. If anyone is a candidate for a decline, it's him. He signed a $9.25M deal for his last year of arb (he's a free agent next year).

Luis Matos, Grant McCray, Jerar Encarnacion, and Wade Meckler all got looks last season. Maybe we'll get a fourth outfielder from that bunch. The starting three are dependable but at this point unspectacular. They can "hold down the fort" but aren't going to carry the club. This would be a good place to improve the team. A young stud emerging this spring or a fresh face from another organization added to the OF mix would be just the thing.

The Dodgers and Padres each have a superstar in their OF (Mookie Betts and Fernando Tatis). LA brought back Teoscar Hernandez. The Padres had a rookie sensation last year (Jackson Merrill, 4.4 WAR). The Diamondbacks have the 2023 Rookie of the Year (Corbin Carroll) who "only" managed 3.4 WAR last year. (I don't care about the Rockies.) It's going to be tough to match up against those teams.

I'll take a look at the infield in the next post.

Happy New Year!

--M.C.