Three strong frames

Don't you love baseball writers' lingo? M.C. "continued to progress" today (according to Chris Haft). Uh, OK. Regardless of the outcome, everyone on the fookin' ballclub continues to progress unless they are dead. A quibble, I know.

Fan Graphs recently added updated Bill James projections. (This is another one of those sites that makes ESPN, SF Gate and just about every other "mainstream" source pointless. Between Fan Graphs, Baseball-Reference, The Baseball Analysts--just to name a few--and the many excellent Giants blogs, the old sources of information are just there for nostalgia purposes.)

Here's his take on the 2009 Matt Cain model:

32 GS 213 IP 185 H 92 BB 192 SO

13-11 W-L 3.55 ERA

3.87 FIP**

I've touched on FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) before. Think of it as a more accurate way to express ERA. Last year, you-know-who was the ML leader in FIP, at 2.62. Among those with 150 or more IP, Dan Haren was 4th (3.01), Brandon Webb was 8th (3.28), Johan Santana was 16th (3.51), Jake Peavy 21st (3.60), Cole Hamels 25th (3.72), Jonathan Sanchez 35th (3.85), and Matt Cain 39th (3.91).

Sorting just for the NL, Matt comes in at number twenty-one. There are 30 ML teams, 16 in the NL. That should give you some idea of the relative value of a fellow like young Mr. Cain. Baseball-Reference uses ERA+, the pitching equivalent of OPS+, one of the stats I throw around all the time. These are more like the traditional stats but weighted against the league average and adjusted for park effects. A score of "100" is "league average."

Matt had an ERA+ of 116 last year, basically saying he was 16% better than average. The Franchise led the league of course, with an eye-popping 167. Check out the career leaders (min 1000 IP and 100 decisions) for a sense of perspective on this metric. For the record, the last not-named-Barry Giants hitter to be at least 16% better than average for a full season was the 2006 Ray Durham (127 OPS+). The last full-time starters to give us over 116 ERA+ were the 2007 Cain (122) and the 2006 Jason Schmidt (125).

Matt pitched well today. For the season, I'd like to see him face fewer batters and throw fewer pitches. Five guys (in the NL) faced over 900 batters in 2008: Santana/964, Webb/944, Cain/933, Lincecum/928, Hamels/914. ALL of them pitched more innings than Matt (217-2/3): Santana (234-1/3), Hamels (227-1/3), Lincecum (227), Webb (226-2/3). Cain, Santana, and Webb tied for 8th in the league in hits allowed, 206, but Matt had far more walks, 91, than all but Tim, 84 (Webb-65, Santana-63, Hamels-53). Dan Haren, to throw in another NL ace, had only 40 walks to go along with 206 Ks. I think this is why Matt has not quite broken through the upper echelon. He's young, tough, big, strong, athletic, healthy, and talented. But he puts a few too many guys on base and and doesn't quite get as many outs as the rest of the bunch. Only 13 guys threw over 3300 pitches in the NL last year, and Tim and Matt were 1-2 with 3682 and 3606. Santana was 3rd/3598, Hamels 5th/3427, Webb 8th/3358, and Haren 11th/3339.

I'm not concerned about fatigue or over-use. I think it is a mental thing, and I expect him to mature and improve. I'd like to see him attack more hitters and make them put the ball in play rather than nibble and give up walks. I'd like to see him get guys out earlier in the count, but still have the strikeout weapon. Maybe he needs another pitch, a good sinker/split-finger to induce more ground balls. With increased confidence, better coaching (yikes!), and veteran-star-mentoring (Unit?), the sky's the limit for our 2002 1st-Round draft pick.

What he really needs, of course, is RUN SUPPORT.



**FIP:
Fielding Independent Pitching, a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number. FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded. FIP was invented by Tangotiger.
(link: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/statpages/glossary/#fip)


Matt Cain B-R page.
Matt Cain FanGraphs page.

Early Spring Tim

Hey there, it's JCP, the resident Freak freak. In other words, I was the RMC author that got the honor of covering young Tim Lincecum's first full year in the bigs. Tough gig, huh? Anyway, I was figuring on dogging it this spring - that's what all the savvy veterans do - but then Tim has to go all mid season dominating form on me. Sheesh, does this kid have any lower gears?

Today our boy went three nearly perfect innings, one walk, 3 strikeouts. The photo is, of course, courtesy of the incomparable Giants Jottings. Shall we start a pool as to when/if he cuts his hair?

He has given up one hit so far this spring, something like seven innings. In other words, everything is normal. I wonder what he has to work on? Last year brought the incredible plus change to counter his "electric heater," (UL Approved). Is there something new in the "Master Plan"? You know Tim and his Dad have a "Master Plan."

Let's talk Tim, shall we? Projections, adulations, etc., etc. Let me start: This is Tim's team. Everybody else is pretty much fluff, some have some really good potential, but nothing that could not be replaced. Anyone care to contest that?

Well that does it for me. I'm clearly out of shape. I better get some more work in before the season starts or my assignment will leave me in the dust. Oh well, I guess that's what spring is for...unless you are Tim.

DFAberts

That was going to be my secret name for ol' no. 10. Alas, they cut him loose. An overdue move after a stupid contract.

The Giants have money. Bags and bags o'money. They can overspend on no. 16 (Rental) and no. 33 (Gomer) and still have gobs to play with. They just tossed six million or so out the fookin' window with no apparent strain on the budget. The Barry Zito, whoops I mean "The No. 75" budget alone could bankrupt some teams. (There were 12 ML teams averaging payrolls over $100 million per year from 2006-2008, Giants were 13th at $94 million.)

Barry Zito is owed over one hundred million dollars through 2014. The Marlins spent about $90 million in payroll over the last three years. Total. The Rays? $120 million.

Makes you wonder. Are the Giants a bunch of bumbling fools throwing money around with no apparent purpose? Do they have a business plan? A baseball plan? If I was rich, I'd throw money at silly things like a fleet of Jaguars and attendants who kept them clean, polished, and ready to rumble. And I'd treat them like the toys they were. If I wanted a new one I'd go get it and come up with the reason later. And I'd get rid of ones I didn't like any more.

But I wouldn't run a ballclub like that, no sir.


q.v. "MLB Payroll Efficiency" (Baseball Analysts), Rich Lederer's Baseball Beat (2 March 09)
and the always interesting Cot's Contracts.

I'm a happy guy

Look at the hitting stars today:

SANDOVAL 3-for-3 with a HR

GUZMAN 2-out, 2-run HR

ISHIKAWA 2 hits, run scored, RBI

BURRISS 2 hits, run scored, RBI

LEWIS with a hit and a run

and . . .

wait for it . . .

BUSTER POSEY 2 1 2 1 !!!!!

We beat the Dodgers. A meaningless Spring Training game you say? A pox on your house.

Romo no mo'?

I was going to write about my enthusiasm for young Mr. Romo and my anguish over his injury, but Bay City Ball and El Lefty Malo were all over the story well before me.

I'll just open the thread here as well--what we gonna do? Build me a bullpen.

The New Gods

Velez

Sandoval

Guzman


These are the young titans that will bring us joy in 2009!

I can speak their names!!!

Coping strategy

I should write a damn book. I mean, you go into any bookstore in the U-S-of-A and you find a wall, a fookin' WALL of books about how to cope. How to deal with meanies, how to be a meanie, how to get well, how to be sick, how to die, how to live, how to eat, love, screw, believe, un-believe, win friends, lose friends, make money, get over money, reach your potential, have a child, be a child, get old, blah-blah-fookin' BLAH.

I'm a Giants fan. If no-rings-since-Moses hasn't taught me how to cope, then I should just let Phillipine jihadists kidnap me so I can have a comparable hardship to learn from. Jose Oquendo? The FloMars? Scott Spezio? Can it get any worse?

Yes, it can. Case in point: Barry Zito. And the guy who hired him, Brian Sabean. To pile doom upon doom, Ol' Sabes zito-ed Aaron Rowand to play CF because he'd pre-zito-ed Dave Roberts to play CF also and that didn't work nearly as well as the actual Zito-ing. Uh, I mean, uh, that, like, we got a lot of guys. And they are old and cost a lot. So, I have to cope.

Here's my coping strategy: anyone NOT named Sandoval, Lewis, Frandsen, Ishikawa, Schierholtz, Guzman, Velez, Bowker, Burriss, Grizzlie, Defender, GreenJacket, or Buster Posey will henceforth be referred to by uniform number. As in "number 33 then batted after Fred Lewis' spectacular awe-inspiring triple and a run was scored."

Now THAT'S cutting edge blogging. I oughta write a fookin' book. Right after number 10 takes some hacks away from Nate.