Vogie's Back

The Giants reached a deal with Ryan Vogelsong for 2014 and he seems to be the final piece of their starting rotation. With Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner at the head and the Tims in the middle, the fifth spot might have been a free-for-all among Yusmeiro Petit, Eric Surkamp, and a host of minor-leaguers. I think the only thing preventing Vogie from taking his turn will be his health, that is, I don't expect he'll be fighting for a job. (Chad Gaudin, I believe, is a free agent, and it doesn't seem like the Giants are interested.)

I'm happy with the move. I don't understand why they didn't just pick up his option instead of re-negotiating, but that's why Brian Sabean, Bobby Evans, and the rest of the crew run the roster, not me. Things look good, don't you think? Cain will be Cain again, like he was in the second half, and Bumgarner is only 23 and still getting better. That's a formidable 1-2 punch, and newly-acquired Tim Hudson is a perfect fit. This guy is a ground ball/quality start machine. Tim Lincecum is the big question mark for most people, but I'm not one of them. Last year I saw a guy recovering his form and mastery of the game. He may never again be The Franchise, but he'll be really good, and may even be great. The way this team works, any one of the four front men could be the ace for a series or a stretch--they've all been in that role and all have it on their résumés. And lest we forget, in 2012 Ryan Vogelsong was the best of the bunch in the post-season! It's almost always about injuries, and if the Big Five are healthy all year long I don't see why they can't be among the best in baseball.

I'm not worried about the rest of the pieces. They'll add some depth in the outfield and the bullpen, but the guys they got is the guys they got, and they're the ones they're going with. Angel Pagan, Hunter Pence, Brandon Belt, Buster Posey, Pablo Sandoval, Marco Scutaro, and Brandon Crawford will all be there, as will Gregor Blanco, Joaquin Arias, and Hector Sanchez. Jeremy Affeldt, Javier Lopez, Santiago Casilla and Sergio Romo will be back, too.

What say you, mates? What do the 2014 Giants need to do before Opening Day on March 31st?

--M.C.

We Have 80% of a Great Starting Rotation!!!!!

"The Giants have agreed to terms on a two-year deal with right-hander Tim Hudson, according to John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle."

I consider this to be excellent news.  Lots of $, but a short deal, for a perennial thorn in our side.  Having him on our team, instead of on another team, alone is worth something.  He's always been a top-notch pitcher, & Atlanta disintegrated when he got hurt last year.

This is a big deal - next up, Bronson Arroyo, I hope.

Giants in 2014!!!!!!!!!!

Money Matters

An interesting article over at MLBTR got me thinking about those things I really don't like thinking about, namely, economics and finance. The game--that is, professional baseball--has always been a business despite our best attempts to disguise it as a pastime. Being a fan is a pastime, but running a ballclub is serious business. The San Francisco Giants, despite a poor 2013 season, are big-time players in the business of baseball. This ain't your mid-market team no more, buckos, the Giants are in the upper echelon and plan to be there for a while. We like to think of Los Angeles and New York as the centers of gravity when it comes to baseball Benjamins, but the Giants are no slouches with payroll. The Giants spent about $136M last season, up from $131M in 2012 and $118M in 2011. The 2010 bill was a mere $96M, which was a $14M jump over 2009. The team has already committed $110M to 2014 with several roster spots to fill and arbitration cases to settle, and $109M to 2015. Only five players are signed for 2016, but those five (Matt Cain, Buster Posey, Hunter Pence, Angel Pagan, and Madison Bumgarner) have a hair over $80M coming. Those five become four when Pagan's deal is up in 2017, but they will still cost over $70M. Only Buster is left by 2019, and he's in orange-and-black until at least 2021 with an option for 2022, all to the tune of $20+M per year.

For better or worse, that's the core. The team is "all in" with the guys they have. This is The Window. If the Giants are going to win another World Series ring, it's going to happen with these guys. This season and the next is how long the band stays together. After that there are some huge obligations and a hell of a lot of holes. We've seen the Giants bring in the young studs and win championships, but now those young studs are well-paid veterans. With the possible exception of Brandon Belt, the team is counting on richer, older guys to deliver the goods. That may work, but it's not like it was before. Take a look, like I said, at the article on MLBTR by Jeff Todd. He has a graph showing which teams have the most money committed going forward, and to no one's surprise the Dodgers lead the way by a lot. The Giants, despite being $100M short of LA, are right up there in third place. And that got me thinking, which isn't always a good thing.

The good news is that the money is flowing into the game at an unprecedented rate. Fox and ESPN are ponying up huge bucks for the TV rights, and every team stands to benefit. Wendy Thurm at FanGraphs has an article worth your time that looks at revenues and payrolls. Again, the Giants stand out as big spenders. I'm not saying that's bad, just weird. I never thought my team would be one of those rich ones! And big expenditures come with big expectations. I mean, here we are. This is The Window. The money has been shelled out for the guys we love, and some more money will have to flow before the team is set, and by god we will be damn disappointed if they don't kick some NL West ass and take another playoff run. And we will be equally disappointed if the brain trust can't conjure up some serious young talent to take the open spots and keep up the new standard of excellence the team has set for itself. It's a long way from frigid nights in Candlestick, ain't it lads?

Tell me what you think.

--M.C.

The 2014 Season Starts Now

The World Series is over, thus marking the end of 2013. Hope springs eternal for 2014. The Giants have a piece of unfinished business, and that's signing Javier Lopez. The guy has been lights-out in his role of Super-LOOGY, and despite being 37 years old shows no sign of slowing down. His walks per nine (2.7), strikeouts per nine (8.5), and his hits per nine (6.9) were all career bests. He's faced 605 batters in his San Francisco tenure, striking out 121, walking 54, hitting three and giving up two, yes two home runs. In 147-1/3 innings, he's allowed 120 hits and 42 runs. According to Baseball-Reference, he's been worth 3.5 WAR since his 2010 debut in orange-and-black. We all know this guy's a stud, and even though he's a specialist, he's a very, very good one, one of the best in the game. Let's keep him in the fold.

The Boston Red Sox, possessor's of the game's mightiest offense, won the World Series scoring a mere 27 runs with a paltry .621 OPS. But their pitchers allowed only 14 runs to the NL's best offense, giving up just 10 extra-base hits and striking out 45 in 53-2/3 innings. Two superb starts apiece by cagey veterans John Lester and Jon Lackey and excellent bullpen work from Brandon Workman, Junichi Tazawa, Koji Uehara, and regular-season starter Felix Doubront neutralized Cardinals bats. St. Louis featured a spectacular quartet of flame-throwing youngsters, starter Michael Wacha and relievers Kevin Siegrist, Carlos Martinez, and Trevor Rosenthal, as well as a legit ace (Adam Wainwright), but it wasn't enough. In a short series, anything can happen, and Boston had everything go their way in Busch Stadium after losing Game Three on the now-famous obstruction call. I thought, after blowing Game Two in Boston, the Sox would likely come home down 3-2, but the dramatic wins in Games Four and Five sealed the Cards fate. It was a weird series with some sloppy play and odd, hard-to-defend managerial moves, but in the end none of that matters because flags fly forever.

Boston went from last to first, and that's the lesson. Things change quickly in the modern game. Whether it's the meteoric rise of rookies, the impact of free agents, or the comebacks from injured players, last season means less and less in the big scheme. What the Giants (and everyone else) do now is what matters most. The team obviously has some holes to fill and moves to make, and I think we will see some action this winter. What do you guys think the team should do? Let's get the discussion started!

--M.C.

Timmy's Back!

I have no problem with the Giants signing Tim Lincecum for two years and $35M. "It's an overpay" is the meme o' the day, and there's no doubt the contract comes with a risk. The man they call The Freak has generated negative WAR in the last two seasons, according to Baseball-Reference, and only 2.5 WAR if you go by FanGraphs. But the Giants are going with the "he sucked a lot less last year than the year before" logic here, and I'm OK with it. Timmy is a unique case. This is a guy who turned down a 5-year, $100M deal because he didn't want to make any long-term commitments! I liked what I saw last season, and I do believe that Lincecum is going to improve and continue to improve. He may never be the 7-WAR beast he was in those Cy Young seasons, but I think he will be at least a 3-WAR pitcher in each of the next two years. And what if he does rediscover the magic and rack up 5 or 6 WAR? He'd be a bargain then, wouldn't he? Timmy, like I said, is a special case. He's an unusual athlete and I think the Giants value Tim for being Tim and aren't falling into the trap of trying to replace him with some imaginary pitcher that doesn't exist. Take a look at the rest of the free agent list and tell me if you'd prefer Matt Garza, Ricky Nolasco, or Ubaldo Jimenez instead. Obviously a guy like Hiroki Kuroda would be highly prized, but he's 39 years old. (I think the Giants should take a chance on Josh Johnson.)

Welcome back, Tim!

--M.C.

p.s. What's a win cost these days? I'll bet it's creeping up toward $7M. Salaries are going up--guys cost more than they did and we are lucky the Giants have the resources to compete. I'll say it again: welcome back, Tim.

p.p.s. I'm looking forward to enjoying the World Series but if I have to hear again about "The Cardinal Way" and all that crap I'll turn the shit off. They've done a great job drafting talent, no argument there, but there is no "right way" to play the game, so please, no more. There are lots of ways to win, fer chrissakes. I think Boston has the edge, mostly because it is an AL year for home field. Otherwise, it's a tossup. I don't really care about the outcome, but my mom is from Boston and is a Sox fan from way back, so I'll probably lean that way. She's the one who taught me to love the game.

Glad to Say ... You Were Wrong, Jon!!!!!

Tim is back for 2 years - a good move, I say!!!!!!!!!!

Dodgers Lose, Moral Center of Universe Holds

The Cardinals will be in the World Series against either the Detroit Tigers or the Boston Red Sox.  The Cards have played the Tigs 3 times before, winning 2.  In 1934, Paul and Dizzy Dean of "the Gashouse Gang" won two games each defeating the Tigers 4 games to 3.  In 1968, the Tigers beat the Cardinals, 4 games to 3.  The Cardinals were the defending World Series champs, and 1967 MVP Bob Gibson started game 1.  I remember this game, because I was listening to a transistor radio in junior high as Gibby threw a complete game shutout, striking out 17, a World Series record that still stands.  In game 4, Bob Gibson threw another complete game, winning 10-1.  Then, to top that off, he pitched another complete game in game 7, overshadowed by Mickey Lolich's 3rd complete game for a 4-1 Tigers victory to take the series.  Two opposing pitchers throwing 3 complete games each!  Mickey Lolich started games 2, 5 and 7, won by the Tigers by scores of 8-1, 10-1 and 4-1 respectively.  1968 was also the year that Denny McLain of the Tigers won 31 games, only to lose to Bob Gibson in games 1 and 4.

In 2006, the Cardinals took a 2-1 lead in World Series victories over the Tigers.  The Cardinals won in 5 games, with Adam Wainwright won 1 and saved 1 and Justin Verlander lost 2.

St. Louis has also faced Boston 3 times in the World Series, winning 2.  None of those match-ups were the St. Louis Browns against the Boston Braves.  In 1946, the Cardinals beat the Sox 4 games to 3, led by Harry "the Hat" Walker and Enos Slaughter.  In 1967, the Cardinals beat the Red Sox in 7 games.  Guess who pitched 3 complete games for the Cards?  Bob Gibson again threw in games 1, 4 and 7 and allowed a total of 3 runs.  Finally, though, the Red Sox won against St. Louis in their 2004 sweep of the Cardinals, effectively ending the "curse of the Bambino." 

Good thing, I was afraid I was not going to be able to stomach watching at all.