Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Peavy vs. Cain tonight

The 2007 Cy Young Award winner takes the hill at PhoneCo tonight. This is Peavy's 8th season, he turns 28 at the end of May. He's made 202 starts in his career and has logged a career 120 ERA+. He averages 6.3 IP per start with 103 pitches thrown. Teams bat .232/.298/.375 against him.

Matt Cain is in his 5th season, turns 25 in October, and has 106 starts with a career ERA+ of 119. Matt averages 6.3 IP per start with 105 pitches thrown. Teams bat .231/.312/.370 against him.

Now let's look at the "peripherals" (*SO%, BB%, GB/FB):


PEAVY 24.1, 7.8, 0.74
CAIN 20.1, 10.0, 0.56


I think we all know what our young stud's bugaboo is--WALKS. This season he's got 6 in 13 IP. And we know what makes Peavy an elite pitcher--high strikeouts and lots of ground balls.

I'm looking forward to the match-up. Once again, Cain draws the short straw, having to face one of the best in the game, but I'll bet these guys love that. If Cain had the fans' concern over "Wins and Losses" he'd have gone nuts long ago. I imagine the desire to test yourself against the other team's ace is far more important to a world-class athlete than the statistical details. At least I hope so.

Go Matt! GO GIANTS!!


*strikeouts as pct. of batters faced, walks as pct. batters faced, ground ball to fly ball ratio

3 comments:

JC Parsons said...

I hate to say it, but I fear your comment:
"desire to test yourself against the other team's ace is far more important to a world-class athlete than the statistical details"
may not be true. In this age of BIG SALARIES and POTENT AGENTS I really don't think anyone is left with that attitude. Wins mean $$$ and I bet Matt would trade some of those lovely stats for a winning record. You know the team will pay him less due to his winning%.

Interesting to see the impact that walks has on your neato comparison with Peavy. Gives me real hope that Matt can ascend to that level. What were Peavy's numbers at the same stage of career?

M.C. O'Connor said...

Peavy had already posted seasons with a 171 and 134 OPS+ by age 25!!! He'd already led the league once in ERA and once in strikeouts. Peavy's mean OPS+ is the same as Cain's, but his peaks are much higher.

I'll grant you that Cain wants the big arb/FA payout just like anyone else, but what separates major-leaguers from wannabes is desire, competitiveness, intensity. These guys hate losing at checkers, fer chrissakes!! (Even a guy who always finishes last has more to brag to his grandkids about than one who never competed at all.)

M.C. O'Connor said...

I meant ERA+ of course!