Saturday, January 15, 2011

Madison K. Bumgarner

It was great to have a young lefty with a funky delivery who no one had seen at the end of the season. He blew everyone away! His World Series Game 4 start was epic. What a sensational addition to the club!

But that was last year. This year--2011--is, as they say, a "whole new ballgame." Will MadBum experience the dreaded Sophomore Slump? Or will he continue to shine as one of the game's bright young stars?

ZiPS says: 165 IP, 167 H, 72 ER, 16 HR, 51 BB, 107 SO, 106 ERA+ in 29 starts.
Year            GS    IP   H ER HR BB  SO ERA+
2009             1  10.0   8  2  2  3  10  246
2010            18 111.0 119 37 11 26  86  136
2 Seasons       19 121.0 127 39 13 29  96  142
162 Game Avg.   32   201 211 65 22 48 159  142

Provided by View Original Table
Generated 1/15/2011.

So maybe a 130-140 ERA+ is a little hopeful, and we should be grateful for anything over 100, eh? ZiPS is certainly not unkind to young "K." (What a great middle initial!) It is nearly impossible to project someone without a major-league track record. Bill James is bullish on the Bum-ster, saying he will give the team 31 starts, 188 innings, and a 3.57 FIP. THAT would be awesome. I'm neither pundit nor prognosticator--just a guy with computer. I say the kid is good and we are going to see a season full of good starts. Sure, he might have a Cain Demotion Moment, or a Lincecum August, all pitchers go through that. But he won't be sitting on the bench if the Giants make the post-season, that's for sure. One of the "comps" in ZiPS is Mark Mulder. I'll take it.


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