But that was last year. This year--2011--is, as they say, a "whole new ballgame." Will MadBum experience the dreaded Sophomore Slump? Or will he continue to shine as one of the game's bright young stars?
ZiPS says: 165 IP, 167 H, 72 ER, 16 HR, 51 BB, 107 SO, 106 ERA+ in 29 starts.
Year GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+
2009 1 10.0 8 2 2 3 10 246
2010 18 111.0 119 37 11 26 86 136
2 Seasons 19 121.0 127 39 13 29 96 142
162 Game Avg. 32 201 211 65 22 48 159 142Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/15/2011.
So maybe a 130-140 ERA+ is a little hopeful, and we should be grateful for anything over 100, eh? ZiPS is certainly not unkind to young "K." (What a great middle initial!) It is nearly impossible to project someone without a major-league track record. Bill James is bullish on the Bum-ster, saying he will give the team 31 starts, 188 innings, and a 3.57 FIP. THAT would be awesome. I'm neither pundit nor prognosticator--just a guy with computer. I say the kid is good and we are going to see a season full of good starts. Sure, he might have a Cain Demotion Moment, or a Lincecum August, all pitchers go through that. But he won't be sitting on the bench if the Giants make the post-season, that's for sure. One of the "comps" in ZiPS is Mark Mulder. I'll take it.
--M.C.
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