Year W L ERA G IP H R BB SO BK BF ERA+ WHIP
2005 2 1 2.33 7 46.1 24 12 19 30 0 181 185 0.928
2006 13 12 4.15 32 190.2 157 93 87 179 2 818 108 1.280
2007 7 16 3.65 32 200.0 173 84 79 163 0 832 123 1.260
2008 8 14 3.76 34 217.2 206 95 91 186 2 933 118 1.364
2009 14 8 2.89 33 217.2 184 73 73 171 0 886 148 1.181
2010 13 11 3.14 33 223.1 181 84 61 177 0 896 130 1.084
6 Seasons 57 62 3.45 171 1095.2 925 441 410 906 4 4546 126 1.218
162 Game Avg. 11 12 3.45 34 218 184 88 82 181 1 907 126 1.218Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/14/2011.
M.C. is "Mr. Consistency." You know what you are going to get with the big right-hander: lots and lots of quality innings. I am one of those folks who thinks assigning "wins" and "losses" to any one player in a team game is idiotic. Cain is my argument. Ignore the "wins" and "losses" and look at the heaping pile of damn good starts.
ZiPS says Cain will go 15-8 (wow, that Giants offense is something!) in 33 starts. That's 219 IP, 189 H, 79 ER, 70 BB, 186 SO, and a 129 ERA+. Compare that to his 162-game average line above. Rocket science, eh?
The "T." is for "Thomas." I don't know what the "O." in Jonathan O. Sánchez stands for. Can anyone help me out?
--M.C.
5 comments:
His real name is Jonathan O'Sanchez. He's actually Irish.
I noticed that you didn't talk about Matt's weird FIP vs. ERA numbers. Grant gives it some thought today at the McCove
. What's your take? Why is Matt an "outlier"?
Here are Tim's FIP
vs. ERA numbers for comparison.
Fly balls, fly balls, fly balls. You give up a lot of fly balls (without the concomitant high-K rates) you are gonna have a lousy FIP. I like FIP and think it is a very useful stat, far better than ERA, but that doesn't mean it can account for every player. Mariano Rivera throws ONE PITCH over and over again and gets guys out. Explain that! Cain seems to possess the skill of inducing weak contact. I assume this is due to consistently locating the fastball on the edge of the strike zone and upsetting the batter's timing with his off-speed pitches. Grant's piece is excellent, and funny as hell. He links to Tom Glavine as another high-FIP but high-success "outlier." I'm happy that Matt Cain is going to throw another 33 starts next year and give us a chance to win most of them.
I'll never be a stats lover, but they do shed light from time to time. I'll never forget this prose stat, from the McCove piece, "Matt Cain did not allow an earned run this postseason."
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