52-40 (.565) after 92 games is a 91- or 92-win pace (91.565 to be more precise). Here's an inning-by-inning breakdown:
1st (games 1-18): 10-8
2nd (games 19-36): 10-8
3rd (games 37-54): 9-9
4th (games 55-72): 10-8
5th (games 73-90): 11-7
The team is already up 2-0 in their next set of 18 games. They will finish the 6th inning on Sunday, the 31st of July (game 108) in Cincinnati.
The Giants have played 92 games and have 70 remaining. If they play .500 ball they will finish 87-75, which will likely not be good enough. To get to 90 wins (that's what the 2nd-place Padres finished with in 2010) would require a 38-32 record (.543), and 92 wins (last year's total) would take 40-30 (.571). Last season the Giants played 74 games in the second half and went 45-29 (.608). If the 2011 Giants play .600 ball they'll win 42 games and finish 94-68. I like that. Let's shoot for 42 wins--after all, it's the Answer to Life, the Universe, and Everything.
How about March 0-1, April 13-12, May 16-12, June 17-11, and July 6-4? Slow and steady wins the race.
The Giants have played 48 road games scoring 205 runs and allowing 184. They are 24-24 despite the plus-21 run difference, an average score of 4.27 to 3.83 (so much for my obsession with RS > RA). The Giants have played 44 home games and boast a 28-16 record despite allowing 138 runs and scoring only 127, or a minus-11 run difference. That .636 win percentage comes on the heels of an average score of 2.89 to 3.14, surely a thumb-nosing of the baseball gods, those cruel, cruel creatures. May the magic continue. Dominus vobiscum, et cum spiritu tuo. Om mani padme hum. Hare Rama, Hare Krishna. O, Great Spirit. For those about to rock. Whatever! Keep it going, that's all I ask.
--M.C.
p.s. Oh, and a hearty congrats to Bruce Bochy for guiding the NL squad to victory. And to all the Giants for representin' the orange & black. Way to look like champions!
3 comments:
These are happy days. Sandoval got an RBI double and his All Star Game career BA is 1.000. Wilson got the save. None of our 3 starting pitchers had to go to the trouble of actually throwing a pitch.
Mark, I'm jealous. The game you went to was a good one. I doubt if I'll make it to PhoneCo Park once this year.
Forget about this season ... I think that we can scrap our way to another title.
Here is my fool-proof plan for decade-long Giants' domination:
- Make a blockbuster off-season trade for Joe Mauer. Give up some significant components to make the trade (J. Sanchez, that outfielder propect guy, someone else). Change his birth certificate to read anything other than Minnesota, or he might not come.
- Alternate Buster Posey & Joe Mauer at C & 1B for the rest of their Hall-of-Fame careers, keeping both of them fresh & injury-free.
- Sit back & enjoy the titles!
Joe Mauer signed an 8-year deal covering 2011-2018 for 184 million bucks--largest ever for a catcher. He has a full no-trade clause.
q.v.
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/minnesota-twins_17.html
Cute idea, but impossible. Better to concentrate on keeping Tim Lincecum: he is arb-eligible in 2012 and 2013 and is a free agent in 2014. If you had to choose, would you pick Joe or Tim?
I know my answer.
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