Wednesday, July 13, 2011

By the numbers

Brian Wilson just blew the save so I'm back at my desk and keyboard. Don't worry--it's only a 'Giants Classic' on Comcast. I was recently asked what I do when there's no baseball on TV and I said "wait for baseball season." It's nice that the crew at Comcast fills in the post-ASB doldrums with some baseball. This re-broadcast is the Home Opener on April 8th. I was lucky enough to be there, in the CF bleachers, section 141. Buster Posey just worked a 9th-inning, two-strike, two-out walk after an Aaron Rowand hit. Oh, I miss that lad. Get well soon, Buster. Pablo Sandoval flashed the new, improved 2011 Panda model with a game-tying hit. We are going to extras, folks. I also was lucky enough to see Matt Cain whiff eleven guys in a complete game win over the Nats. That was June 8th, this time in section 108, some very nice lower deck seats (scored by Zo). Jim Riggleman was still at the helm in D.C. Finally, I got to see Tim Lincecum beat the Mets on July 9th. It wasn't flashy, but it was a win, and that's what counts. The Giants scored all their runs on ground balls that could have been double plays but weren't, baseball prowess worthy of saga and song. This time it was the upper deck, section 310. I got the very cool striped socks--when you see them on me you will want them. Not bad for living 300 miles away, eh? The Giants just turned a hit, a blown DP, an error, an intentional walk, and a booming drive to the wall in left-center (all with two outs) from the aforementioned Rowand to win in the 12th. You knew they would, right? If it had been Cody Ross or Andres Torres (or Rowand) out there, we all would have expected it to be caught. Colby Rasmus just didn't have the magic that day.

52-40 (.565) after 92 games is a 91- or 92-win pace (91.565 to be more precise). Here's an inning-by-inning breakdown:

1st (games  1-18): 10-8
2nd (games 19-36): 10-8
3rd (games 37-54):  9-9
4th (games 55-72): 10-8
5th (games 73-90): 11-7

The team is already up 2-0 in their next set of 18 games. They will finish the 6th inning on Sunday, the 31st of July (game 108) in Cincinnati.

The Giants have played 92 games and have 70 remaining. If they play .500 ball they will finish 87-75, which will likely not be good enough. To get to 90 wins (that's what the 2nd-place Padres finished with in 2010) would require a 38-32 record (.543), and 92 wins (last year's total) would take 40-30 (.571). Last season the Giants played 74 games in the second half and went 45-29 (.608). If the 2011 Giants play .600 ball they'll win 42 games and finish 94-68. I like that. Let's shoot for 42 wins--after all, it's the Answer to Life, the Universe, and Everything.

How about March 0-1, April 13-12, May 16-12, June 17-11, and July 6-4? Slow and steady wins the race.

The Giants have played 48 road games scoring 205 runs and allowing 184. They are 24-24 despite the plus-21 run difference, an average score of 4.27 to 3.83 (so much for my obsession with RS > RA). The Giants have played 44 home games and boast a 28-16 record despite allowing 138 runs and scoring only 127, or a minus-11 run difference. That .636 win percentage comes on the heels of an average score of 2.89 to 3.14, surely a thumb-nosing of the baseball gods, those cruel, cruel creatures. May the magic continue. Dominus vobiscum, et cum spiritu tuo. Om mani padme hum. Hare Rama, Hare Krishna. O, Great Spirit. For those about to rock. Whatever! Keep it going, that's all I ask.


p.s. Oh, and a hearty congrats to Bruce Bochy for guiding the NL squad to victory. And to all the Giants for representin' the orange & black. Way to look like champions!


Brother Bob said...

These are happy days. Sandoval got an RBI double and his All Star Game career BA is 1.000. Wilson got the save. None of our 3 starting pitchers had to go to the trouble of actually throwing a pitch.
Mark, I'm jealous. The game you went to was a good one. I doubt if I'll make it to PhoneCo Park once this year.

Ron said...

Forget about this season ... I think that we can scrap our way to another title.

Here is my fool-proof plan for decade-long Giants' domination:

- Make a blockbuster off-season trade for Joe Mauer. Give up some significant components to make the trade (J. Sanchez, that outfielder propect guy, someone else). Change his birth certificate to read anything other than Minnesota, or he might not come.

- Alternate Buster Posey & Joe Mauer at C & 1B for the rest of their Hall-of-Fame careers, keeping both of them fresh & injury-free.

- Sit back & enjoy the titles!

M.C. O'Connor said...

Joe Mauer signed an 8-year deal covering 2011-2018 for 184 million bucks--largest ever for a catcher. He has a full no-trade clause.


Cute idea, but impossible. Better to concentrate on keeping Tim Lincecum: he is arb-eligible in 2012 and 2013 and is a free agent in 2014. If you had to choose, would you pick Joe or Tim?

I know my answer.