30 starts, 172.3 IP, 141 H, 70 R, 18 HR, 87 BB, 183 SO, 114 ERA+Here's another take on our boy (from Joe Pawlikowski at FanGraphs): The reasons for my bearish view on Sanchez’s 2011 don’t center on BABIP, though his .262 mark from 2010 certainly won’t hold up. That will affect his ERA right away. He’ll also probably have worse infield defense behind him, as he’s going from Juan Uribe to Miguel Tejada at shortstop. What really worries me about Sanchez is his high walk rate combined with average-ish home run rate. His HR/FB ratio was right around the 10 percent rate we use for xFIP, and has been around that mark for his career. Those two factors then further combine with his high strand rate — 79.5 percent, well above his 72.2 percent career rate and fourth highest in the league in 2010 — to create a situation that he probably won’t sustain. If his LOB% falls to his career level next year, those walks are going to hurt more. The home runs will hurt more. I’d expect his ERA to climb into the 3.90 to 4.20 range next year. While that’s not bad by any stretch, it’s considerably worse than his 2010 performance.Yeah, I know, it's a bit saber-y, but you are all big kids and I think you can handle it. So--what do you think about the 2011 version of Jonathan O. Sánchez? What are your projections?
--M.C.
p.s. I had a table with B-R stats but it caused a hell of a lot of formatting problems so I deleted it. Here's the link to JS's stats.
p.p.s. Here's the table, finally:
Year W L ERA G IP H R BB SO BF ERA+ WHIP 2006 3 1 4.95 27 40.0 39 26 23 33 185 92 1.550 2007 1 5 5.88 33 52.0 57 34 28 62 238 77 1.635 2008 9 12 5.01 29 158.0 154 90 75 157 695 88 1.449 2009 8 12 4.24 32 163.1 135 82 88 177 710 101 1.365 2010 13 9 3.07 34 193.1 142 74 96 205 812 133 1.231 5 Seasons 34 39 4.26 155 606.2 527 306 310 634 2640 101 1.380 162 Game Avg. 9 10 4.26 41 162 141 82 83 170 707 101 1.380
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/13/2011.
3 comments:
I'm experiencing some serious formattin issues in IE--tell me what you see! The post looks fine in Firefox and Chrome, but terrible (for some reason) in Explorer.
Looks fine. I use Firefox.
Thanks for writing about Sanchez. I enjoyed reviewing his numbers. Of course numbers don't tell the whole story, especially when it comes to Puerto Rican southpaws. He's really the big question mark all the time, isn't he? If he attains some consistency, and Zito retains at least respectability, we will have a rotation for the ages.
I got the table to work by abandoning HTML. For some reason, IE adds all these extra lines to the blog post that don't show in Chrome or Firefox. Good thing B-R has options.
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