So for half as much money as the Diamondbacks are paying Corbin Burnes the Giants will take a flyer on 42-year old no-doubt-future-HOFer Justin Verlander. He had a 5.48 ERA in 17 starts (90-1/3 IP) last season. You can see this as a desperation move. Buster and The Gang lost out on Burnes and they went to Ye Olde Vintage Shoppe and came back with JV. Hey, it's MLB economics, an entire discipline in itself, who can understand what things cost anymore?
Or, you can see this as an upgrade on Robbie Ray. No disrespect to Robbie, a former Cy Young awardee himself, but this is his role. Dispenser of Leadership and Veteran Savvy Clutchness. Showing the bevy of young arms how to be a major leaguer. Ray, I should note, is getting $25M both this year and next. (Once again it is that goofy Baseball Econ 101.) Both guys will probably put up 2+ WAR and be solid #3-starter types. Alex Cobb put up back-to-back 2.5 WAR seasons with the Giants. Maybe Verlander captures a little of that gritty old-guy-in-a-new-place magic and gives the team a couple dozen starts.
I expected something along these lines when the Burnes thing didn't happen. This is the kind of thing, once again, that the Giants have to do. They can afford to blow $15M! The Dodgers do it all the time. The Giants have to plug the holes and they can't be afraid to make a choice and go forward. The worst outcome is that some young pitchers will have to work a little harder to prove they should push aside established veterans. That's got to make them better players! If they have any brains at all they'll realize having a real superstar in their midst will only help them. Verlander's reputation is that he's "not an asshole" despite his stature in the game and is an approachable teammate. He's got to know as much about pitching as anyone does, don't you think?
Go Giants!
--M.C.
5 comments:
We still have not learned, even after the signing the injured Mark DeRosa, that injured players are a big risk. Also how many old pitchers have worked out for the giants. Perhaps Rich Reuschel worked out but he was not that old. Maybe Randy Johnson was at least around league average. Carlton, was not the guy he was during most of his career, nor was Warren Spahn, or Deshais, or Orel Hersheiser. Maybe these guys could mentor. I do not want to see some of the young talent blocked, if this 15 million dollar, 42 year old, is not up to par. Even during his peak, Pablo Sandoval owned this guy. Which Verlander will we get, and will this take us out of the picture for signing a Japanese star pitcher? I hope it works out, but I am not confident, unless his arm completely regenerates, and he has some of those Nolan Ryan anti-aging genes.
It's a pretty small risk. Like I said, the worst that can happen is that one of the young pitchers has to work a little harder! That's a good thing. Competition for roster spots is what makes a big-leaguer.
The Giants have some exciting young arms like Harrison and Birdsong but both were sub-1.0 WAR last year. Winn and Black are very interesting but quite unknown. There's a lot of uncertainty with them. And with Hicks (20 starts) and Ray (only 7 starts) that's not enough to bank on.
I'd rather have Burnes but I'll take Verlander on a one-year flyer.
Verlander has 12 years of 200+ innings. In 2023 he threw 150+ innings, although last year he was injured and threw 94. What we need from him is 100 or 120 innings. 120 - 150 would be great. You take up those innings with Verlander and maybe an equal amount with Ray, and your young staff can pitch without putting too much pressure on the bullpen. That was a problem last year - they performed well but were used too much. I think I read that the Giants used their bullpen more than any other team. Not a recipe for winning games in the late innings.
No doubt. That's why I want more starting pitching! It's Logan Webb for 32 starts and then a lot of question marks.
Verlander helps. Like you say 120-150 IP would be great. It would be great if Ray was really healthy and could throw 30 starts. Harrison is promising but still only 23, as is Birdsong. Hicks is one that's hard to project as well.
It's a tough division. You gotta have a lot of depth and and a lot of options. Maybe one of the young arms will blossom into All-Star studliness and that will be enough to push the team to the post-season.
FanGraphs projects 23 GS, 130 IP, 4.5 ERA, 1.3 WAR. I think he'll beat that. He threw 162 IP in 2023 with a 3.22 ERA.
They have to make a 40-man roster move.
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