The Giants won't be signing Alex Bregman anytime soon—the ink just dried on his five-year, $170M deal with the Cubs. It may seem nutty to give a 31-year old that kind of scratch but it's actually reasonable. Figure he's a 3-WAR/yr. player and that's 15 WAR over the life of the contract or $11.3M/WAR. A little on the high side perhaps (my baseline is $10M/WAR) but certainly do-able. Projections suggest Bregman may be worth a little more than that. The consensus on FanGraphs was 5 years, $150M so he got a little more than expected although I understand a chunk of it is deferred for salary cap purposes.
Not that I wanted the Giants to sign Alex Bregman. Kyle Tucker on the other hand . . .
We know that's not going to happen. If they were going to give anyone five years and $150M I would like it to be Framber Valdez! After all, Dylan Cease got 7 years and $210M from the Blue Jays. Now THAT is a nutty contract. But Toronto is going "all-in" after just missing out last year and I can't blame them.
The Giants? Well, they are tinkering around the edges. I don't think anyone is thrilled about beefing up the rotation with two journeymen, but that's the plan for 2026. The team is clearly counting on improvements from (1) the new manager and (2) some youngster(s). Bryce Eldridge? Carson Whisenhunt?
The 2026 Giants have talent. Rafael Devers, Willy Adames, Matt Chapman, and Logan Webb are all top-flight ballplayers. Jung Hoo Lee and Patrick Bailey are both on the cusp and it's not unreasonable to project improvements from both. And there's Heliot Ramos. It's a make-or-break year for him. I know Buster has publicly "called out" the young pitching corps and he expects someone to emerge as a legit hurler from that group. That would be great, of course. Blade Tidwell? Trevor McDonald? Our old pal Hayden Birdsong?
The Giants could fill their hole at second base by signing Bo Bichette. Sure, it would take a billion dollars, but they have plenty of money. Man, that would be some infield! But this outfit is too buttoned-down Wall Street for that sort of outlay. It's tough to compete with the more free-wheeling clubs like SD and LA but that's the way it goes.
Pitchers and catchers report in just about a month!
--M.C.
21 comments:
Giants could be competitive but they need a few players to have career years, a young player to break out into stardom, and be relatively injury free. The last one is difficult as the giants often sign post injury type projects.
Yeah, there's potential, it just feels like too many "ifs."
To be fair, the Giants had a terrific off-season when they traded for Rafael Devers. He's every bit the force that Bellinger or Tucker could be, even if he wasn't enough to push the Giants into the post season last year.
However, the Giants dealt away so much pitching that it defined their top three 2026 needs: pitching, pitching, and pitching. (Not that a hitter wouldn't be nice, too.)
They must be expecting solid accomplishments from the young starters and relievers they've amassed, because relying on a couple mediocre pick-ups or Mahle (hurt the last 3 years) is not going to do it. The off-season isn't over, of course, but they sure don't seem to be doing much in that department.
It's great that they're off in Korea promoting the team, but that doesn't excuse them totally bailing on Imai before the bidding had even started. That shows that they either are simply uninterested in Japan and the legion of fans Japanese players bring to the team, or they badly overestimated Imai's cost. Neither of those things speaks well for management.
They expressed no interest in him. The only thing I can figure is that their own in-house projections on him are uninspiring. Nobody really knows how his stuff will translate. FanGraphs projects him for just under two WAR, for example. And his contract includes opt-outs after the first two years. It seems both sides recognize the uncertainty.
Not very many teams looked at Imai--the Giants weren't the only slackers. He didn't generate the interest or the money that most people expected. Not sure why.
Me? I would have taken a flyer on him, especially since he came so cheap.
I love the idea of Bo Bichette to the Giants as a second baseman. I like that it doesn’t involve trading prospects.
Jeff Passan has reported the Giants are “aggressively” pursuing a second baseman. Nico Horner and Brenden Donovan have been mentioned (although I fear what prospects it might take to get them). It wouldn’t take much to be an improvement over recent Giants second baseman, but any of these three would be a big pick up for the Giants.
And it’s a good sign that the Giants are still shopping.
Unfortunately neither Fitz nor Schmitt showed enough to secure the job. I'm still holding out for Schmitty, though.
Hoerner is a local boy and a real star but he's a free agent in 2027 so he'd be a rental. You are right to "fear the prospects" needed to snag him. I'd rather the team spend money than spend people. Donovan just settled his arb case, he's a FA in 2028. Both teams would be nuts to part with either of them.
That's why a rich or even a semi-rich team should spend money, not people. Once you have a Dodgers-like surfeit of people, then you can spend your people.
Right now the Giants have money and they should throw more of it around.
Feb 10, pitchers and catchers; Feb 15 full squad.
https://www.mlb.com/giants/news/spring-training-2026-first-workout-dates
5 ys, $130 M for Ranger Suarez (Red Sox).
$26M/yr. That ain't bad. Robbie Ray gets $25M. Suarez > Ray.
It's now the "international amateur" signing period and the Giants picked up a much-heralded 17-year old SS from Venezuela named Luis Hernandez. He is ranked #1 or #2 depending on the list.
That's nice. On the other hand, projecting a 17-year old is wishful thinking of the highest order (see: Luciano, Marco). In fact, the entire amateur "rankings" industry is a crock of bullshit. No one knows if some teenager will turn into a major leaguer!
But we've all thought the Giants have come up short in the foreign free agent department so maybe this is a good step. They signed a big-shot amateur last year, too (Josuar Gonzalez).
They have signed a lot of shortstops over the last few years.
No doubt it’s a crap shoot. But you don’t make a shot you don’t take….
I think the reason to sign lots of SS is that they can "move down" the defensive spectrum to 3B, 2B, OF, etc. if they can't stick at SS. It's much harder for a player to "move up."
Baseball is weird. You have to wait such a long time for players to be ready for the big leagues. Guys go straight from college to NBA or NFL and make an impact. A guy like that is very rare in MLB. We aren't really going to see anything from these young guys for 3 or 4 years!
Dodgers signed Kyle Tucker.
L.A. ended last season with a luxury tax payroll of $417MM, costing them another $169.4MM in taxes. Their tax bill alone was higher than the final payroll calculations of 12 teams.
That's from MLBTR. One can see how well the "luxury tax" works! Ha! "Competitive Balance" my ass!
The Dodgers are taking on a $60+M tax hit for 2026 by signing Tucker. Like they care.
This is why I say the Giants need to spend money.
There's a lot of talk about the next Collective Bargaining Agreement which expires in December. The players say they will resist a salary cap. I get the feeling the owners will simply lock the players out and let Manfred make any changes they want unilaterally. It's not going to be pretty as the players don't really have any leverage.
Jay Jaffe at FanGraphs:
Given that it’s the two-time champions adding the number one free agent on the market, setting a record for AAV, and using some amount of deferred money to flex their muscle, tthis isn’t likely to reduce anyone’s ire towards the Dodgers, or rival fans’ and executives’ discomfort with their combination of spending and success. On the contrary, it will add to the din regarding the game’s financial inequities and the seeming inevitability of a lockout next winter, renew calls for a salary cap, and probably boost sales of fainting couches among team owners. It’s likely that the next Collective Bargaining Agreement will create even stiffer penalties for the crime of trying to win. Until then, the Dodgers are gunning for a three-peat.
Bichette is a Met
From his first cigarette
To his last dying breath
Or 3 years, whichever comes first.
A vain hope, to be sure.
From MLBTR:
From a payroll vantage point, the Bichette contract is all the more staggering. Not only is the $42MM annual value the sixth-largest ever, it’s also only a fraction of what the Mets will actually have to pay due to this signing. New York was already on the cusp of the top tier of luxury penalization. Bichette catapults them $33MM north of that final cutoff point . . . the Mets would be paying more than $86MM for Bichette in 2026 alone.
That's what Giants ownership wants to avoid. Ya gotta love the Mets. They ain't shy. They're probably nuts and will probably handicap themselves for the future with all this, but it sure is entertaining. And if they lockout the players in 2027 anyway they are off the hook!
There is an opinion piece in the Athletic by Evan Drellich that claims that the owners are outraged by the Dodgers signing of Tucker and that they will be pushing for a salary cap "no matter what." Of course that means no matter if players strike or what. But what would a salary cap look like? You can bet it will not hurt the Dodgers, rather, it might lock in all current teams payrolls with some gradual escalation. Even if other teams caught up to LA at some point in the distant future, it would lock in the Dodgers cost advantage for years. So I'm betting that that LA, who broke the system, will be the beneficiaries of the "fix."
Bellinger signs with the Yanks for 5 years (with opt outs) for 162 mil.
That's a good place for him with the short porch in RF. Even so, that's a lot of money and years. I would rather take a chance on Framber Valdez!
Yeah, the richest teams will always be able to game the system. I understand why players don't want a cap but I think it's a lousy hill to die on. The fans won't care either way. I don't see the players having much leverage. A work stoppage will only hurt them.
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