Top prospect Bryce Eldridge will start the season in AAA. There's no shortage at DH otherwise. I'm assuming Jerar Encarnación will make the team. FNG Luis Arráez also plays first base (he did so for Team Venzuela). Rafael Devers says he likes to play the field and he did fine at first base but he'll be slotted in often at DH. And of course the roster spot that Eldridge filled will have to be re-filled. Roster Resource is suggesting FNG lefty-swinging Will Brennan.
FanGraphs does a thing every year called Positional Power Rankings. They rank all 30 teams at each position. Here's how the Giants rank:
Catcher: #3
Third base: #4
Shortstop: #10
Second base: #18
First base: #10
Left field: #17
Center field: #16
Right field: #14
We can quibble with some of the rankings. And a half-dozen players are usually clustered together and a ranking like #12 could be #6 with a +/- 0.5 WAR variation. The very top players (Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, etc.) are 3-5 WAR above their second-ranked peers. I think the 1B rank is too low, and 2B as well. The Giants have a strong infield. This is the heart of the club. That group has to stay healthy all season long and produce near their career norms for the team to be competitive.
The outfield is pretty average, but we knew that.
The pitching is the big question mark. If Logan Webb is healthy we know what he'll do. Can Robbie Ray stay healthy and do what he did last season? Same for Landen Roupp. FNGs Tyler Mahle and Adrian Houser don't impress the projection systems, coming in at about 1.5 WAR each, or perhaps better to say a 1.0 to 2.0 range. Let's hope they beat those numbers.
I don't really have any thoughts on the bullpen. We'll just have to see how it shakes out.
FanGraphs says the Giants will finish 81-81 in second place behind the 93-69 Dodgers.
But they have a 38.6% chance to make the playoffs!
Anyway, baseball is played by real people, not computers. We'll see what Our Fearless Leader Buster has cooking up there in the Owner/PoBO box and what FNG TonyV has cooking down there in the dugout real soon. I keep wanting to call him "Coach" but that's not going to fly up here in big-boy baseball.
I note I said "we'll see" too many times.
Go Giants!
--M.C.
p.s. They gotta be better than last year, doncha' think?
1 comment:
Putting Eldridge back in AAA was the obvious choice all along, baring injury or Encarnacion or Matos falling off the table. You don't want to lose one of those guys to start the season. The bullpen has questions, but a couple of guys that should be healthy fairly soon, so I wouldn't worry too much about what it looks like right now. I find it odd that the Giants are projected to be a .500 team AND finish second. Either is plausible, but it would be unlikely IMO that both would occur.
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