Local baseball

We've had unusually clear and sunny weather here in the borderlands. We took advantage of that and watched some local baseball on Saturday. College of the Siskiyous (Weed, CA) hosted Feather River College (Quincy, CA) for a doubleheader. JC baseball in the Golden Valley Conference!

Admission was free and we stood behind home plate between the tiny stands:

Nice view, eh? COS has a lovely campus, surrounded by big trees and with great views of both Mt Shasta and Mt Eddy. The only drawback to the quaint but serviceable ballpark is the frigid alpine breeze that comes across it in the late afternoon. Weed residents and the local sports fans are used to such things but we had to bundle up:

Our friend Eamon Velarde, a standout for the Yreka High School Miners baseball team a few years ago, is a pitcher for the FRC Golden Eagles. We got to see him toss an inning in relief. We've known him since he was a baby so it is hard to get used to 6'5" and 210 pounds!

We have not been to a Giants game or any professional baseball since Opening Day 2015. It was great fun to take in live games. We were impressed by the quality of play and the smarts and athleticism of the ballplayers.

If you are looking for a chance to see good baseball in your area try the local community college. Gabe Kapler made his mark on the amateur baseball scene at Moorpark College, after all. He's a Cal-JC Guy!

--M.C.

Giants are hiring

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Baseball Operations needs more R&D people. Get those résumés polished, boys and girls. The Giants need your help!

--M.C.


h/t FanGraphs

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Craig Edwards has a piece on FanGraphs covering projected 2020 team payrolls. I'm stealing a graph from there:

The Giants have the 11th-highest payroll. In 2019 it was 9th, in 2018 it was 3rd, and in 2017 it was the 4th-highest. The last time the Giants were below the top ten was in 2010 when they had the 11th-highest payroll. Check out the history here.

As far as off-season spending goes, the Giants (approximate) outlay of $30M ranks tenth. It doesn't seem like they've spent that much, but if you break it down (Cozart $13M, Gausman $9M, Flores $3M, Pence $3M, etc.) you can see it. Again, check Cot's Contracts for details.

The point of all this is the next number. How much did the Giants payroll drop from last season? Roughly $20M, which is the 6th-largest dip. Only the Red Sox, Mariners, Cubs, Indians, and Brewers have seen bigger drops. The Edwards article has the graphs if you need a visual.

The Giants are looking for an even bigger drop next season. Only Posey, Cueto, Belt, Crawford, Longoria, and FNG Wilmer Flores are under contract for 2021. That's $95M committed, $60M less than the (roughly) $150+M projected for 2020.

The Dodgers were able to pull off the Mookie Betts deal because they had both a surplus of talent and payroll space. They will exceed the CBT threshold (I should just say "salary cap") this year but have about $100M coming off the books for 2021 which will give them the ability to sign Betts for the long-term. The Giants want to get to that place. They want to have the payroll space ("flexibility" in front-office jargon) to go after big free agents. But talent is still a problem. There is a big talent gap between the Giants and their rivals. LA can trade away prospects and good players and still have a formidable team and a deep farm system. The Giants are re-stocking their system of course but it's not like the rest of the NL West teams are sitting on their arses!

--M.C.

The 'pen

There are a lot of arms in the Giants camp and the bullpen is mostly unsettled. Veteran lefty Tony Watson is a sure thing--he signed a one-year ($3M) deal! New skipper Gabe Kapler has reportedly said that righties Trevor Gott and Tyler Rogers "will be a big part of the bullpen." Rogers made his ML debut last season. In 17 IP he struck out 16 and walked three, allowing 12 hits (no homers) and three runs. He's 29 and has been in the system since 2013 when he was drafted out of Austin Peay. He has three options left so if he falters they can shuttle him freely to AAA. Gott is 27 and is entering his sixth season in the majors. He's seen action for both the Nationals and the Angels. He gave up 26 runs in his 52-2/3 IP for the Giants last year but the good strikeout (57) and decent walk (17) numbers along with only four homers allowed give him a nice 3.12 FIP. Gott is arb-eligible next season and a free agent in 2024.

There are likely eight spots in the 'pen so that means five more to fill. I'm assuming a five-man rotation (13 pitcher limit on a 26-man roster for 2020) but one never knows. I won't be surprised if the Giants go with the opener idea or some other unusual roles for their hurlers. Should be a flurry of roster decisions in the next few weeks!

--M.C.


p.s. FIP is Fielding Independent Pitching. Think of it like ERA--that is, it works on the same scale (2.00 excellent, 4.50 average, 6.00 terrible). FIP tries to measure what a pitcher is actually responsible for (SO, BB, HR, HBP) and it strips out the role of defense. Most pitchers have little control over balls in play and some guys get penalized for playing on a poor-fielding team. Luck and sequencing are also stripped out in order to try to get a better measure of the pitcher's actual skill level. Over time FIP and ERA numbers tend to converge. ERA can be useful over the long haul. FIP is much better for season-to-season and other shorter time frames.