O/U 90

I'm one who'd have taken the over on 90 wins. That was predicated on Matt Cain being a 3-WAR pitcher (32 starts, 200 innings, 120 ERA+). It was also predicated on Tim Lincecum finding some consistency and delivering more quality starts. The first assumption was reasonable, the second hopeful, neither came to pass. It was also predicated on Brandon Belt being healthy for a full season and running out a 2013-like line (.289/.360/.481). That's a 4-WAR player. You add seven wins from Cain and Belt and that's the top of the heap or damn near. Ryan Vogelsong is a 1-WAR pitcher, I thought Timmy could do at least that well. That's eight more wins. I know it's not that simple--Peavy and Petit combined for 3 WAR and neither would have made those contributions if Matt and Tim were Matt and Tim. Even so, the club would have been a least a few games better. I believe the loss of Belt in the lineup was the single biggest thing that hurt the offense. I know about the Angel Pagan Effect, but I think Belt's a better hitter and certainly has more power. He's managed to contribute 1 WAR despite only playing in about a third of the season. Pagan is credited with 1.4 WAR for his 96 games--imagine the impact he would have made over a full season.

That being said, the Giants came up short. And they came up short because they played some damn poor baseball for long stretches of the season. Slumps are part of the game, I know that. From June 9th to July 18th they went 10-21, for example. That's .323 ball. That's not a slump, that's a nosedive. The team did not win the games they could have (and should have) won with the people they had. Every team has injuries. On the other hand, considering the decimation of the roster, the team still managed to make the post-season. You have to acknowledge that. It's been a confusing and frustrating season. "Who are these guys?" was my favorite refrain. When they were smoking hot in April and May and when they were icy cold in June and July the same question applied.

The Dodgers, the West champs, did not have a losing month. If the Giants lose today, they'll have three (if they win, two). That's how you win a division--being consistent. The Giants have been very good and very bad but they've ultimately lacked consistency. That's what makes this post-season chance so difficult to evaluate. Yeah, we know anything can happen in one game or one series or one month. But this team is hard to get a handle on--which one will show up next Wednesday? At least we know that Madison Bumgarner will get the start, and he has been terrific all season. If the team has any kind of chance it will be because they have their best guy on the hill. I can get excited about that.

Rookie Chris Heston makes his debut today. That's cool--maybe he'll get a shot to crack the rotation next year. After all there is a good chance Ryan Vogelsong will not be back and there's no guarantee Jake Peavy will be, either. And what they'll do with Tim Lincecum is anybody's guess. So show us what you got, kid.

GO GIANTS!

--M.C.

It's official

Last night's game was like a thumbnail sketch of the season. They took an early, seemingly insurmountable lead. Then they blew it, free-falling to an apparent defeat. Finally they recovered and scratched and clawed their way to victory. A post-season berth, no matter how ugly the means to get there, is a victory. The Giants had already clinched a spot before the game but they picked up the win they needed anyway and got to celebrate. I can't watch those visquine-and-goggles things anymore but I was happy the team got to whoop it up. We'll see if they can get back to the business at hand tonight.

I started thinking about the 25-man playoff roster. Angel Pagan's injury opens up an outfield spot. I get the sense that Mike Morse won't be available, either. Boch used Travis Ishikawa in left field--I wonder if that was a post-season audition. Tim Lincecum got a win by throwing two pitches, I think he's going to be the swing man. Hunter Strickland cranked up his 99-mph cheese and got a big out. I think he'll have a spot.

IF (5): Belt, Panik, BCraw, Panda, Posey.
OF (3): Pence, Blanco, Perez.
Bench (4): Susac, Arias, Duffy, Ishikawa.
Starters (5): MadBum, Peavy, Hudson, Petit, Vogie.
Bullpen (7): Lopez, Affeldt, Machi, Romo, Casilla, Strickland, Lincecum.

That's 24. I know that it's a four-man ro' in the playoffs, but I don't see them leaving Vogelsong off the roster. And I don't think you need Gutierrez if you have two starters who could be called upon in garbage time. And that leaves out Kontos as well. So the 25th man would be Dominguez? Duvall? Am I missing someone or something? Help me out.

Vogie makes his career-high 32nd start tonight.

GO GIANTS!

--M.C.

Giants need a win

The Giants will take the back door to the post-season after getting whipped in LA. The division was a long shot, but I thought they might have some fight left. Instead they got smoked two nights in a row and got to watch the Dodgers celebrate. The Giants will most likely have to go to Pittsburgh for the sudden-death game--I don't suppose it matters. They actually have a better road record than home despite the recent trip. In the context of all the injuries, it says a lot that they still have a winning record and a chance to play for the big prize. Nonetheless this is a disappointing season. They obviously weren't as good as their 42-21 record in early June, I expected them to cool off. But they dropped into a deep freeze and played the worst ball in the majors before finally getting their shit together in August. And September has been mediocre at best. A strong finish, taking three of four from San Diego, will give them a winning record for the month. But losing four of the last six to the Dodgers at crunch time was a cruel blow. LA came up big down the stretch and took the West easily. Getting swept in San Diego right beforehand was particularly galling. The team looked feeble and lifeless. It's been like that in the second half--just when they start to look great they follow it with anemic, wretched ball. Who knows which team will show up in San Francisco? I expect they will get the one win they need, but it would be nice to see some verve and spirit.

So, do you save Bumgarner for the playoff game? If they win tonight they could rest Peavy as well and have him ready for the LDS. Giants need to get the business done, and the sooner the better. They owe the Padres a beat-down at the very least.

GO GIANTS!

--M.C.

Horrible

Madison Bumgarner was responsible for all of the RBIs tonight.  Unfortunately, he gave up twice as many as he produced.  Giants fans who choose to tune in to tomorrow's television broadcast stand a very good chance of being treated to the sight of the doggers celebrating their division-clinching victory.  And I bet Puig is a big asshole about it.

As a kicker, the Giants will probably travel to Pittsburgh for the wild card game, probably Madison Bumgarner's next start.

Why don't we start Madison in left field on days that he doesn't pitch?  His home run to at bat ratio is better than anyone else's on the Giants.