The 2021 Giants, part 3

The biggest surprise of the season was the pitching staff. From the get-go they were among the best in the league at suppressing runs, specifically limiting walks and homers, and continued to pitch well until the final game. They allowed 18 runs in the five-game LDS and threw two shutouts against a Dodgers team that led the NL in offense (and were fourth in runs scored behind three AL teams, the Astros, Rays, and Jays).

How did that happen? Let's start with the bullpen. Here are the top six relievers by IP this season with their ERAs: Tyler Rogers (81, 2.22), Jarlin Garcia (68-2/3, 2.62), Jose Alvarez (64-2/3, 2.37), Zack Littel (61-2/3, 2.92), Jake McGee (59-2/3, 2.72), and Dominic Leone (53-2/3, 1.51). All of those ERAs rate 150 ERA+ and higher meaning they are 50% better than league average. All the FIPs are correspondingly good (3.28, 3.77, 3.15, 3.87, 3.35, and 3.08) so you know that the numbers aren't too fluky. They threw strikes and mostly kept the ball in the yard. I have to add wunderkind Camilo Doval's 27 IP, 3.00 ERA, and 3.47 FIP. When everyone else was faltering he went un-scored upon in September and literally saved the season. Although other relievers logged more innings (Tony Watson, Caleb Baragar, Jay Jackson, Matt Wisler, John Brebbia, Conner Menez), the 13-1/3 delivered by young Kervin Castro (one unearned run, 2.12 FIP) got him a spot on the post-season roster and he saw action in two games.

The construction and emergence of the bullpen was a vindication of the infamous "churn" so beloved by our owlish and genial PoBO Farhan Zaidi. He and and his loyal lieutenant Scott Harris and their staff made sure there was a continuous stockpile of major league-ready ballplayers to be called upon. And called upon they were!

The starters obviously shone this season as well. The Giants almost pulled off a five-man rotation at one point, looking very old-school, but fatigue and injuries took their toll. It's amazing the club went 21-6 in September! The front five accounted for 137 starts. Aaron Sanchez, Sammy Long, and Scott Kazmir added 16 more and the rest were bullpen/opener games.

Giving Kevin Gausman a QO at the end of last season paid off handsomely. He was a top-tier pitcher this season and stayed healthy enough for 192 IP (6th-best in MLB). I expect they will offer him a deal this winter. Another free agent that really delivered, especially in the first half, was Anthony DeSclafani. Unfortunately his troubles against LA and in the LDS really hurt his stock. I could see them re-signing him but they won't have the same enthusiasm they did earlier. Alex Wood however made a case to stick around, mostly because he's a lefty and could perhaps relieve as well as start, sort of like Julio Urias. Johnny Cueto had a brief resurgence and started 21 games but couldn't stay healthy and did not make the post-season cut. I assume they'll buy him out. Alas, that's the last we'll see of that wonderfully entertaining performer.

Logan Webb was the story of the year, of course. The 24-year old put himself on the national radar with two brilliant efforts against the Dodgers in the playoffs. That only confirmed what Giants fans had just discovered--that he was an ace. You have to be excited about seeing him pitch next season. It's also another reason to re-sign Gausman as having that co-ace tandem at the top of the rotation is tough on other teams!

FanGraphs rated the San Francisco staff 5th in WAR (21.9) behind the White Sox, Dodgers, Brewers, and Yankees. They rated second in FIP (3.55) to LA (3.54). B-R gave them a 127 ERA+, again second only to LA's 136. For more conventional statistics they had the second-lowest WHIP (1.148, LA led MLB with 1.097). The Giants allowed the fewest homers (151) and the fewest walks (146). They had 18 shutouts, second to Atlanta and Milwaukee with 19. They had, like the Dodgers, a league-leading 56 saves.

--M.C.

The 2021 Giants, part 2

I've said it before and I repeated it in my last post: this is the most interesting Giants team in my tenure as a fan. What's so interesting? Let's start with the manager, Gabe Kapler. This is a man who leaves nothing to chance. Every action has a purpose. Even warm-up tosses are conscious, deliberate acts with clear outcomes. This approach, at first blush, seems too hands-on for pro athletes and more suited to working with elementary school kids. But Kapler believes that every athlete (every person, in fact) can learn, adapt, and grow. Practice isn't just drills. It's a personal improvement plan. Kap's forte is player development, and he believes that this process happens continuously and throughout all the things that happen in the season from Spring Training to the playoffs to the layoffs.

Kapler is also match-up obsessed. He believes that every encounter can be maximized and that even the tiniest increment in your favor is worth pursuing. It drove the old-school purists in Philadelphia crazy, and to Kap's credit he adjusted his schemes when he came to San Francisco. Mostly, he asked the veteran players for buy-in beforehand and they were professional enough (and hungry enough for increasingly elusive success) to meet him halfway. The result? Career resurgences for BCraw, Belt, Buster, and Longo, and a rejuvenated nucleus of veteran leaders to build a team around.

Ron put it crudely in the comments: "making Lemonade out of Lemons." I have to counter that notion just a bit: there are no "lemons" in a Gabe Kapler organization! The baseball world may look at the Giants lineup of no-names and think the team was scraped together by dumpster-diving and somehow these marginal players were transformed by SF secret sauce into winners. It's a nice narrative, but it's bullshit. Kap respects professional baseball players. He knows they are talented and ambitious. He sees what they CAN do and not what they CAN'T do. Very few players reach the heights of someone like Mookie Betts or Max Scherzer. The vast majority of players will never be superstars. MOST ballplayers are more like Darin Ruf and Jose Alvarez! What the Giants do is recognize what contributions their players CAN make and so they maximize their chances to make those contributions. Moreover, they provide the coaching and instructional support to help players work on the things they need to work on.

Giants players noted all season long Kap's willingness to listen. Kap, in turn, noted again and again how unselfish the players were in accepting whatever role the team needed from them. I think the skipper gets a lot of credit for creating that culture. One thing that stood out for me: if a reliever blew up in a crucial spot in a game Kap would put him back out there in a key spot in the next game. It was a message that said "we trust you and we have your back." It seems like really simple schoolyard stuff but it makes a huge deal in a teaching environment. The clubhouse was as much a classroom as the playing field.

Have you ever seen a manager pinch-hit for a guy that was 2-for-2 with a homer? Or sit a guy with the game-winning homer the previous night? It happened all season long! And the hitters never bitched or whined. They knew the system was working for them individually and for the team as a whole. The 2021 Giants had few regulars. They platooned like they invented platooning. They looked like a hockey team some nights the way they ran through the line changes. That's not supposed to work. You're supposed to plug in your All-Stars every day in the same spots on the field and in the lineup and go with that all season long. This Giants team didn't do that. They used all forty men on their 40-man roster. It was a team in the true sense of the word.

I find all this modern stuff really interesting. I've really enjoyed the emergence of analytics, for example. I feel like all that stuff just enriches and enlarges my appreciation of the game. And now Kapler comes along and says things like "trust the process." Imagine a manager saying that back in the day. They would have thought he was a fruit loop who belonged at Esalen instead of MLB! Kap comes up with stuff that sounds like it emerged from a Bayesian workflow seminar instead of a coaches meeting.

In the end, the Giants won 109 games.

--M.C.

The 2021 Giants, part 1

The Giants won 109 games but their season is over. Taking a look at the three World Series championship teams of the last decade only amplifies this accomplishment. The 2010 team won 103 (92+11) games, the 2012 team won 105 (94+11) games and the 2014 team won 100 (88+1+11) games.

This Giants team had the poor luck to face a superb playoff opponent. The Dodgers are the defending champions and were nearly a consensus pick to repeat. And seeing how well they shut down the Giants I think they are clearly the best of the four remaining contenders. Losing to a good team is easier to deal with. It was a coin-flip kind of series--the winning run came in the final inning of the last game.

What's my takeaway for 2021? This was a fun team. A really fun team. And an interesting team! The most interesting team I've ever followed. There was no electrifying celebrity like Timmy or lightning-rod personality like MadBum. Despite having a face-of-baseball player like Buster Posey this team did not attract much media attention. But there was nothing boring about this club. Every single game was an adventure.

I've noted throughout this season the team's remarkable consistency. They played good baseball all season long. They played their best baseball in the second half and in the final month. I've never followed a team that was this good from week-to-week and month-to-month.

There's lots more to say, naturally. Part 2 will be about Gabe Kapler.

--M.C.

Game 167

LA 2  SF 1

The Giants and Dodgers played 24 games this season. The Giants won 12, the Dodgers won 12. The only one that mattered was the last one, and the Giants fell short. The Dodgers rallied in the 9th against Camilo Doval and pushed across the go-ahead run. Late-inning LaMonte looked like--for a moment--he might hit the game-winner in the bottom half, but it wasn't to be. The Giants won 109 games but their season is over. The Dodgers advance to the LCS.

Logan Webb was brilliant again. He gave up a run in the 6th but was otherwise dominating, yielding only four hits and a walk against seven whiffs in seven frames. The Giants tied it on a booming homer by Darin Ruf off Julio Urias, but that was all the lineup could muster. Ultimately the series came down to the Giants inability to score runs. They had chances early against opener Corey Knebel and his relief man Brusdar Graterol, the two righties inserted by Dave Roberts to foil Gabe Kapler's match-up schemes, but did not convert. Urias, other than the homer, was never threatened, and he was followed by Blake Treinen, Kenley Jansen, and Max Scherzer. The Giants scored ten runs in the five games. It wasn't enough.

I'll have plenty to say about the 2021 season. But right now I'm too sad to go on. I'm not angry or disappointed. Just sad. Such a great season, such a crappy ending.

I'm pouring myself an extra measure of bourbon. Dwight Yoakam says "even whiskey cannot ease you're hurting me" and he's probably right. I'm about to find out.

Take care, my friends. Thanks for being on the journey with me.

--M.C.

Go Giants!!

BEAT LA!!

--M.C.

Series showdown set

LA 7  SF 2

The Dodgers jumped on Anthony DeSclafani right away and chased him from the game. Giants relievers couldn't keep it close and didn't get much help from the lineup. It was a crappy game--let's leave it at that.

Everything gets decided on Thursday night in San Francisco. Game Five is at 6:07 Pacific. I suppose we all knew it would come to this. It's the 167th game for both clubs and the 24th match-up of the season.

Logan Webb will get the start against Julio Urias. The Giants will play much better when they are back home and it should be an incredibly exciting game. I'm looking forward to it, but I'm also happy about the off-day. These contests are exhausting.

GO GIANTS!!

BEAT LA!!

--M.C.

Giants blank Dodgers, go up 2-1

SF 1  LA 0

The Giants pulled off an epic team shutout tonight in LA and edged the Dodgers in a classic pitchers duel. Max Scherzer gave the Giants fits, whiffing ten over seven frames and yielding only three hits and one walk. His one blemish was the big hit--a massive homer in the 5th by Evan Longoria. That was Longo's tenth career post-season bomb, by the way. Alex Wood put up four zeroes and the bullpen did the rest, highlighted by an extraordinary six-out save from Camilo Doval. Dodger Stadium was swirling with wind all game long and it probably cost both teams a homer or two, and the strike zone pissed off both ballclubs, so you had to figure it was a fair contest. It was a tremendous team effort and the Giants take a one-game lead in the LDS. Special shout-out to Brandon Crawford for his continued awesome-ness, especially that grab in the 7th to deny Mookie Betts. The whole team deserves a nod for great fielding.

The Dodgers had won FIFTEEN in a row at home before this game! They have been shut out TWICE in this series by the Giants even though they were shut out only FIVE times all year!

This Giants team is showing, again and again, how tough and resilient they are. After Saturday's ugly loss they played a beautiful game and pulled off a sensational win. If they win one more game they go to the LCS!

Tomorrow night's game is listed at 6:07 Pacific. The starters have not been named but Anthony DeSclafani seems the logical choice.

GO GIANTS!!

BEAT LA!!

--M.C.