The 2022 pitching staff

Their are a few new faces for Giants fans this season. The biggest signing of the off-season is 29-year old lefty starter Carlos Rodón. He was the 3rd overall pick in the 2014 draft which included Tyler Beede at #14. Rodón has always had big strikeout stuff but has struggled with command. He put it all together last season for 24 starts (132-2/3 IP). He struck out 185 of the 534 batters he faced against only 36 walks, allowing just 91 hits (13 HR). It was good for a 183 ERA+ and 5.0 bWAR. One of his starts was a no-hitter against Cleveland. When he's healthy he's an ace. He's often not healthy (only 121 appearances in seven seasons) and the White Sox cut him loose despite his outstanding work. They have four other starters (Lucas Gliotto, Lance Lynn, Dallas Keuchel, Dylan Cease) and weren't willing to extend a Qualifying Offer. The Giants, in what is surely an organizational pattern, gave him big money ($44M) for a short term (2 years with an opt-out). It's a high-risk move but potentially high-reward as well as Rodón has serious talent. He will wear no. 16 after wearing no. 55 in Chicago.

Another 29-year old free agent pitcher, righty Jakob Junis, also signed with the Giants and will be under team control next season. He also has a minor-league option remaining. He's a swing man who will likely start and relieve as well as serve as an opener. He's logged over 500 IP in the bigs since his 2017 debut with the Royals.

An intriguing 30-year old right-handed starter (and former closer!) Carlos Martinez signed a minors deal with the Giants but is expected to make the big-league roster. He spent his career with the Cardinals (274 games, 967 IP) and was a top starter from 2015-2017. He notched 24 saves out of the 'pen in 2019 but has struggled to stay healthy since then.

Alex Cobb came on board before the lockout. The 34-year old righty has 174 starts (1010-1/3 IP) in his ten seasons with the Rays, Orioles, and Angels. He boasts strong ground ball numbers and good walk rates. His 3.87 ERA is just about the same as his 3.94 FIP which is a tick above league average. He has a two-year deal with an option ($20M total).

The rest of the staff returns from last season. Logan Webb is emerging as a front-line beast and does not start his arb-clock until next year. Anthony DeSclafani had a superb season and was rewarded with a three-year deal ($36M total). Solid lefty Alex Wood is back for two years ($25M total)

The relief corps is the same with Jake McGee, Tyler Rogers, Dominic Leone, Jarlin Garcia, Zack Littell, and Jose Alvarez all still in the mix. Youngsters Camilo Doval and Kervin Castro will be part of the team, too. John Brebbia has recovered from TJS and should be able to compete for a spot. And the above-mentioned Tyler Beede will be at AAA with Sean Hjelle, Gregory Santos, and lefty Sammy Long. It's an FZ team so expect a lot of movement.

I should note that the new CBA has a re-defined "option." It used to be if a player had an option he could be sent back-and-forth to the minors as many times as the team needed in one season. Now that movement is limited to five trips. The Giants used the option 69 times (Jason Vosler and Thairo Estrada each had 7, Sammy Long and Chadwick Tromp each had 5) in 2021. The PoBO's job got just a wee bit harder, perhaps.

Spring Training games start on Friday. Camp is going to be a busy place! Opening Day is April 7th.

--M.C.

Baseball is Back

The economics of baseball isn't going to change much due to labor strife. The players have a voice, but it's a limited one. Baseball teams still own players. They control the first seven years of a player's career. Not only that, owners can manipulate the start dates on a player's service time in order to keep them under "team control" for longer. Arbitration rears its ugly head in the final few years, but that's an adversarial process that only serves to undermine a player's relationship with his bosses. When most players reach free agency they are in decline. They aren't as good as they used to be and thus less valuable to other teams. Baseball has managed to pay the best young talent at the lowest rates and also to suppress the late-career earnings of older players who have "earned" their freedom. It's a crap system, and it isn't going to change with this or any subsequent CBA.

In an ideal world all players would be free agents from the start. In a less-than-ideal but better world, the kind of world we all hope for, players would need half the service time to become free agents. Three years, maybe four years. If teams had that clock ticking they would have to make decisions sooner on young players and that would give those guys chances with other teams while still in their athletic primes.

Sadly, the players made no movement on that. That's the most important thing, but it strikes at the heart of the game's power structure, so it has a sort of "third rail" status. I think the only way players will ever get that kind of work done is if Congress gets rid of MLB's special status. There is no reason why baseball owners should get an anti-trust exemption. It's infuriating to have these creepy wannabe-tycoons brag about their free market successes yet fight, and fight dirty, to protect themselves from competition. We need the equivalent of the old AFL and ABA to emerge and challenge MLB's monopoly on the game.

As far as this Collective Bargaining Agreement goes the players got a few bones tossed their way. They raised the minimum salary quite a bit. I heard that AAA players will get a bump. Those are good things. The Competitive Balance Tax level was increased. The players rightly see it as a salary cap and are opposed to a CBT, but the owners are paranoid and want to keep a lid on the nutjobs (like Steve Cohen of the Mets) who will game the system. For them it's sort of "we gotta have some rules in this sandbox!" The players got some money into the pre-arbitration bonus pool and that will help a chunk of younger guys.

If you haven't already seen it coming the National League will now adopt the Designated Hitter. About time, I say. I would expect more rule changes coming even though they weren't explicitly covered in this CBA. There is a move to ban shifting, which I think is stupid, and a desire for pitch clocks, which I support. Pace-of-play is a critical failing of today's game and needs to be addressed. Clocks aren't the prettiest solution, but they have been well-received where they've been tried out. There will be a sort of "fast-track" scheme for implementing new rules so us old-timers need to be prepared.

I'm ready for baseball but it's going to be a different vibe, that's for sure. This whole mess let some of the air outta my balloon. But it's baseball, and it's back.

--M.C.

 

p.s. Giants just signed lefty Carlos Rodón. This is a huge move. Two years, $44M. I suppose we'll talk about that in the comments!

New CBA

Apparently the Players Association and Major League Baseball have a tentative agreement:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/32882139/mlb-lockout-mlb-mlbpa-agree-new-cba

https://www.mlb.com/

The regular season is to begin on April 7th.

--M.C.

Two down, fifty to go

According to the printable Giants schedule (available on the website) below, the Giants were expected to play fifty-two series in 2022. Take a look:

The owners (and their hired gun, Mr. Disinterested) just lopped off 3.85% (2/52) of the season. They have no reason to do this other than the usual one which is "what we can't completely control we will deliberately fuck up."

It's clear that MLB had no intention of negotiating in good faith. The lockout was just the opening salvo in a full-fledged assault on the game. The billionaires have shown us that they are willing to break their toys just so no one else can play with them.

This is a disaster. People are going to walk away from baseball this time and not come back. It's not 1995. The game no longer has the pull on the public consciousness that it once did. Dollars are going to flow to other places. Baseball will become like opera, something that relies on patronage and federal arts funding in order to exist (note: I like opera, this is not a dig). Perhaps the unholy alliance of MLB and the betting industry will make up a new revenue stream and cover the losses from fan defection.

--M.C.

New baseball book

I just got a new book!

I'm a long-time supporter of Baseball-Reference and this was a gift sent to all of us by founder Sean Forman. B-R now includes Negro League stats and treats them as equivalent to MLB stats. Oscar Charleston, for example, is now listed among the all-time leaders in slugging percentage, just a tick above Jimmie Foxx and Barry Bonds!

I'll let you know my thoughts when I finish reading.

--M.C.

p.s. You can get the book in paper at the SABR website or as an e-book.

Back to Buster

David Laurilia of FanGraphs writes a "Sunday Notes" column that is the best thing on that site. If you need good stuff to read about baseball you should check out his weekend posts. Last week he took a quick look at Buster Posey. We won't get to see Buster play ball again but we can certainly re-visit his career accomplishments. What fortunate fans we were to see him play! Laurilia's January 9th article is titled "Is Buster Posey One of the Best Catchers in MLB History?" and I recommend that you read it. It's short. Laurilia makes his points without a lot of B.S.

--M.C.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-notes-is-buster-posey-one-of-the-best-catchers-in-mlb-history/

The lockout

 

If a graph can be said to explain the current impasse between the players and the owners it would be this one. The owners figured out that paying older players (especially those past the age of 30) wasn't worth it. The best thing to do is underpay younger players when they are at their peak. The owners underpay younger players by maintaining the vestiges of the reserve clause. Younger players are "owned" by the team and the best they can do, salary-wise, is via the arbitration process. When they become free agents their best seasons are behind them. The players obviously want to change that system. They want to get to free agency sooner. They are right, of course, just a little late in their thinking. They got schooled by the owners during the last two rounds of CBA negotiations and now they are well behind where they ought to be.

The solution is obvious: make all players free agents from the beginning. Get rid of the draft, arbitration, and the rest of the nonsense surrounding the reserve clause.

I don't expect much progress. The owners will be reluctant to give the players anything. The players might get a few bones thrown their way, and they'll sign a deal that's superficially better than what they have now, but there won't be fundamental changes to the way MLB is run. Then we'll do this all over again in a few years.

Meanwhile, have a great holiday season. Merry Christmas!

--M.C.