Diamondbacks Better At Math, Win By One

The Giants were 75-20 last season when they scored four or more runs in a game. This year they are 39-11. Last year, when they allowed three or fewer runs, they were 70-12. This year, 39-15. Last night, they didn't get the memo on the three/four run thing, or maybe they forgot. Hey, I'm a math teacher, people forget math all the time. The 2013 Giants are a long way from 70 wins total, but the point stands. You can do all the analysis you want, but it comes down to something pretty simple: score four runs or more, allow three or fewer. Ryan Vogelsong had a bad inning and gave up three runs. The Giants clawed back to tie the game, only to lose. They could not get that fourth run and take the lead and that doomed them to another loss in a season of losses. I wish I had a story to tell, but it wouldn't be much more than "other team scores more runs than Giants." Oh, there were some nice defensive plays (Brandon Crawford, Angel Pagan). That's good. The Giants have been close to the worst fielding team in the nation this year after being close to the best last year. Whoops, there's that story I was looking for: the best team in the land turns into the worst team in the land for the first time in baseball history. I don't like that story.

Yusmeiro Petit gets a shot against his old team this afternoon. Go Giants!

--M.C.


p.s. I lifted the numbers from the sidebar at Obsessive Giants Compulsive.

Crafty Tim

The Giants picked up their 60th win (pity it came a couple months too late) with a slick 1-0 win against the snakes. Those guys are still in the Wild Card hunt (lost a game to the Reds) so it must have really hurt. Ooooh, poor little reptiles.

Big story lines:  1) Tim Lincecum goes a solid six innings, spreading six hits (one double) and two walks expertly.  Tim may be getting the hang of this "crafty" thing. 2) Angel Pagan returns with a nifty first inning double (first swing!), move to third with a Scutaro bunt,  slide home with the ONLY RUN on a sac fly from Belt. Too sweet! 3) Pablo Sandoval continues to look like he wants to finish strong with a great defensive game. His sixth inning play saved the game. Simple as that. Maybe he can keep that extra weight off. Maybe monkeys will fly out my butt.

This game sure brings up the question,"Just how frigging important is Angel Pagan to our success?"  I mean, come on, his first game back and we reset to a classic Giants win formula.  Solid start, wicked defense, slick relief, and just-barely-enough offense.  Those were the days... but certainly not 2013. I know it can't be all on Angel's shoulders, yet it is still a worthy question. After all, we may go from best to last. Did that lovely inside the park home run really cost us a chance?

Giants Lose to Sick Pitcher

A few days ago I opined that I would like to see the Giants end the season with a better record than the Padres and the Rockies.  I doubt that will happen, as we waste chance after chance to control our own destiny.  It's the fucking Rockies, for Chrissake.

Madison Bumgarner picked up another loss.  He soon will be a .500 pitcher.  He did not throw deeply into the game.  In sickeningly repetitive fashion, however, it would not have made a damn bit of difference.  The Giants did not hit Jhoulys Chacin, who cannot possibly be spelling his own first name correctly, until the 7th inning.  He reportedly was pitching with a fever, but the Giants were so fucking weak, he could have been comatose on the mound and still won.

Rarer than a no-hitter in Curs is a no-hitter that allows a run.  In the 4th, a walk, error and double play gave the Giants a run.   Not like they hit the ball or anything.   Know what else is rare?  A World Series Champion ending the following season in last place.  It has been done once, by the Marlins, and they TRIED to finish last.

In Appreciation of Hunter Pence

Two nights ago, in a stultifying loss in Colorado, Hunter Pence ran down a ball in right field and plowed face-first into the fence. He'd made the catch, but the ball popped out as a result of the collision. It looked bad. He fell to the ground, and as he lay there, supine, Gregor Blanco completed the play and then waved frantically to the dugout for help. Boch and the trainer (they call them "physios" in England) hustled out to check on their man. Not much later, Pence was up, looking fine, and checking to see if Boch was winded by the sprint. He stayed in the game and kept his streak--140 straight starts--alive. Last night, against the same Rockies, Hunter Pence hit a ball 476 feet that cleared the bleachers in left field. According to the folks that measure such things, it was the longest blast of the season. It was so massive that when Pablo Sandoval followed with 430-footer of his own, it seemed a bit pedestrian. Duane Kuiper has taken to calling Pence "Plastic Man" in appreciation of his gangly, long-limbed, all-out style. Not many guys can do what no. 8 just pulled off, and it got me thinking about what he brings to the ballpark. By the way, the Giants won behind a nice effort from Yusmeiro Petit.

For starters, I like a guy who plays. He's not only played every game this season, he's only missed a handful of innings. That's a lot of balls caught and plays made in right field, and for my money, he passes the eye test. I don't know or care what the advanced defensive metrics say, I see a guy who has lots of range, good hands, and a strong arm. I like it when balls are hit to right--the guy knows what to do. As a hitter, Pence had his worst season ever in 2012. This season, his .278/.326/.450 line is a notch below his career (.284/.337/.471) numbers, but he spent most of his time in hitter-friendly places like Houston and Philadelphia. B-R agrees, giving him a 124 OPS+ so far this year, a notch above his career 118 mark. A .704 OPS is the NL average, it's .726 in the AL. FanGraphs says Pence's .776 should get a 120 wRC+ rating and that he's worth 3.7 WAR (B-R says 3.0). If you give each WAR a $5M price tag, he's certainly earning his $13.8M. Did I forget to mention he is 19 for 21 in stolen bases? Here's a guy who can get on base, hit for power, run the bases, and play the field. He's not Mike Trout, fer chrissakes, but he's average or above average in all the things ballplayers are supposed to do. He reminds me a bit of a guy just about to come off the DL, one Angel Pagan. He's also an all-rounder, pretty darn good at a lot of things. Pagan's a year older, and signed a 4-year, $40M deal for 2013-2016. I think the Giants should make a shot at keeping their right-fielder.

GO GIANTS!

--M.C.

Vogie Rocks, Giants Roll

Today was one of the best-pitched games of this mostly forgettable season. Ryan Vogelsong struggled mightily before his injury (37 runs in 46-1/3 IP), but looks like he's returning to the championship form we know and love. The Pirates are a good club, and Vogie had them off-balance all afternoon. Home plate umpire Lance Barksdale is known for a tight zone, and both Vogelsong and Pirates starter A.J. Burnett got squeezed on several close pitches. But no. 32 was brisk (2:42 game time) and efficient (98 pitches in eight innings) and only allowed two hits, an infield one to MVP-candidate Andrew McCutchen in the 7th, and a single to Andrew Lambo in the 3rd. Lambo walked with two outs in the 5th, but was gunned down by Buster Posey on a steal attempt. Those were the only blemishes, and that performance was good for a Game Score of 82. Burnett was also impressive, flashing a nasty curve ball that had the Giants frustrated and generated a lot of grounders. But they finally got to him in the 8th (should Clint Hurdle have gone to his 'pen sooner?) with a booming triple to right-center from Pablo Sandoval that would have been a three-run homer in most parks. The 1-0 nail-biter was suddenly 3-0, and we all breathed easier. Madison Bumgarner got burned the other night when the Giants could not generate a big hit. Joaquin Arias added to the fun and brought the Panda home with a searing two-out double down the LF line off reliever Tony Watson to make it 4-0. Sandy Rosario got the last three outs to preserve the win.

The Giants are 5th in the NL in triples, and 4th in doubles. I used to say I could live with a team that doesn't hit many homers if they can rack up extra bases with hard-hit balls. Alas, the 2013 Giants are so feeble--their 76 HR are second-from-last in the league and exactly half of the league-leading Atlanta Braves 152--it makes that statement pretty silly. That glaring lack of pop shows up in their second-from-last standing in both total bases and slugging percentage, and more significantly, third-from-the-bottom in runs scored. Yes, I know it's really about the pitching. The five best teams in the league have the five lowest ERAs (Pittsburgh, LA, Atlanta, Cincinnati, St. Louis). The Giants are the fourth-worst in allowing runs. Only Philadelphia, San Diego, and Colorado are worse. It's a deadly combination. At least in 2009 and 2011 when the team couldn't hit they could keep it close with good pitching. A healthy Ryan Vogelsong should certainly help turn things around in 2014.

I know, don't get too excited about one start, right? The hell with that. I'm pretty excited about Vogie's effort today. It gave me flashbacks of his October heroics. Keep it going, man, keep it going.

--M.C.



p.s. I had this post all ready to go but for a few final edits when the power went out about 1630. It just came back at 1900. The thundershowers were heavy all day and they must have knocked a line down or zapped something at one of the substations. Power outages in Siskiyou County are surprisingly rare, and when they happen, they don't take long to get fixed. This is one of the longest I can remember in the 24 years we've been here. It's a big place--the fifth largest county by area in California--but one of the least populated, only 44,900 at the 2010 census. We could all fit in the Giants ballpark!

Pirate Busting Tim

Winning for only the second time in seven tries since the no hitter, Tim Lincecum rather surprisingly beat Francisco Liriano and the front running Pirates, 6-3.  Supported by a four run first inning, Tim gave up three runs on three hits and four walks in his 5.1 innings. Not great but good enough. Obviously, the best part was the eight strike outs. That gives Tim 1482 career K's, which is the third highest ALL TIME in seven seasons.  Any time you get to say ALL TIME, that is way cool.

Other nice stuff included three hits for Buster, Panda RBIs, and Sergio Romo's 31st save.  It is safe to say that this game was better than a poke in the eye with a blunt stick. Which makes it a nice break.

Shocked

Dave Flemming said he was shocked.  Mike Krukow agreed.  I bet the fans going home from the Phone were shocked.  Unless they were numb.  Or expected the outcome with 1 run of support.  Madison Bumgarner pitched scoreless ball into the 7th, when, following singles by Gaby Sanchez and Josh Harrison, Clint Barmes golfed a low, inside pitch that was probably not a strike over the far right field wall for 3 runs.  It was enough for a final score of 3-1.  The Giants scored 1 run off of Ground Chuck Morton, but probably didn't deserve that.  Posey doubled in the fourth, then took third on a wild pitch and scored on a Roger the K pop fly to left that fell within feet of 3 Pirates.

Madison allowed 7 hits and walked 4 to Morton's 7 hits (plus 1 by the closer, Mark Melancon) and 1 walk.  Before tonight, the Giants have not won when Madison has been on the mound since August 2.  Madison has 2 L including last night's.  In the four starts including last night, he has given up 12 runs (not all of them earned), and the Giants have scored 5 runs. In four games.  Cained!  And speaking of Matt, he is now on the DL for the first time.  He had the third most IP without a miss before now.

The Pirates are headed for the playoffs.  And, they are close to a certainty to finish the year at over .500.  That will be the first time in 20 years that has happened.  20 years!  Barry Bonds was a Pirate the last time they were over .500.  I guess we should be grateful to have watched so many years of competitive baseball.  Even though we are not doing it this year.