Melvin comes back to the Bay

The Giants did what I hoped they'd do--get a new manager quickly and without a lot of fuss. Bob Melvin is well-known and well-regarded around MLB and he's a safe, solid choice. Melvin is from Palo Alto and went to Menlo-Atherton HS. He played amateur ball at Cal and at Cañada College. The 1980 Golden Bears team that Melvin played for was probably the best in school history (44 wins, 10-3 at CWS). They lost to the Arizona Wildcats by one run in the semifinal. (Arizona won the title and their star player was Terry Francona!) Melvin was drafted by the Tigers and came to the Giants with Juan Berenguer in a 1985 trade. He was traded to the Orioles in 1989 for Terry Kennedy. Melvin has managed four clubs (Seattle, Arizona, Oakland, and San Diego) over 20 seasons. In 2942 games his record is 1517-1425 (.516) and his teams have made eight playoff appearances.

Speaking of the playoffs, I was astounded by the NLCS result. The Diamondbacks played two exceptional baseball games in Philadelphia to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. The Phillies seemingly had the pennant in the bag after their Game 5 win but Arizona would not be denied. They got big performances from two rookies: pitcher Brandon Pfaadt and outfielder Corbin Carroll.

Bruce Bochy is back in the World Series after a rousing finish in Houston. Like the Phils the Astros got a huge Game 5 win on the road but the Rangers turned it up to another level for the final two games. They also have a rookie outfielder (Evan Carter) who looks like the real deal. I like to see new teams in the World Series and I think it's good for the sport. Expanding the playoffs means more upsets and more "wild cards" and this year really showed that. The Rangers and Diamondbacks were the number five and number six seeds.Three 100-win teams (LAD, ATL, BAL) and one 99-win team (TBR) were bumped in the early rounds.

It's clear the new mandate for any club is "just make the playoffs" as winning the division accrues no real benefit. Even a seven-game series cannot swing the odds enough towards the stronger team. Luck and chance still rule. A couple of big individual performances can really make an impact in a week of baseball. Billy Beane famously said "my shit don't work in the playoffs" and he was right. Teams have to be built for the long haul, but the short haul post-season is pretty close to a coin toss.

The Texas Rangers will have the home field advantage. Game One is Friday. Texas is listed as a -170 favorite. You'd need to bet $170 to get a $100 payout. Arizona comes in at +150, so you'd win $150 on a $100 bet. A betting line of -170 has an implied probability of about 63% which seems ridiculous. Texas is clearly better on paper but I don't think any baseball match-up is that lopsided. As we've seen, they have to play the games, and anything is possible.

--M.C.

9th inning: 5-13

The Giants stumbled badly in the final stretch but it's OK, they fired the manager and solved the problem. Interim manager Kai Correa finishes the season with a 1-2 mark after today's loss in the final game of the season. Rookie Kyle Harrison pitched five shutout innings and rookie Casey Schmitt hit two homers. Brandon Crawford started and hit leadoff but went 0-for-4 in what is likely his final game in SF, maybe his final game ever.

Here are the team's runs scored for the final eight games (they went 2-6): 0, 2, 2, 0, 2, 2, 2, 2.

1st inning: 6-12

2nd inning: 10-8

3rd inning: 12-6

4th inning: 12-6

5th inning: 9-9

6th inning: 10-8

7th inning: 6-12

8th inning: 9-9

9th inning: 5-13

The final tally is 79-83, fourth place, 20 GB.

The 84-78 Diamondbacks finish second (15 GB) and get the final Wild Card spot despite losing their last four games. The Padres edge the Giants for third place.

--M.C.

Giants find their fall guy

No one is a happy about the Giants late-season collapse. And, it seems, someone has to take the blame. In baseball the manager usually gets the axe if the team under-performs and the Giants stuck to the script and fired Gabe Kapler. It's tacky to cut the guy loose with a weekend of baseball left to play. Why not just wait until Monday morning? It's a silly move in my mind. Kapler wasn't whiffing with the bases loaded or booting the ball around the outfield. No, the players did that. And so what if there was some whining in the clubhouse? Players should be upset by their individual performances and should be upset about the team's overall performance. Everyone had a hand in the team's poor play. No one gets off the hook--are they going to turn over the roster as well? Or the rest of the coaching staff?

This tells me that Farhan Zaidi doesn't value the manager all that much. It could be anyone, as long as it is one that works. I thought the 107-win 2021 season would buy Kap a little more goodwill but the sports world moves too fast for that stuff. "What have you done for me lately?" The Washington Nationals won the World Series in 2019 and have gone 204-306 (.400) since then, including a 107-loss season, and they just signed manager Dave Martinez to a two-year extension! Explain that.

Kapler was an unorthodox manager and had an unusual personal style. San Francisco seemed like a perfect fit. I had no problem with him. He's weird, but it's not an act. He is exactly who he presents himself to be. I thought he brought a lot of smarts and freshness to the role and I liked his hands-off style in the clubhouse. He expected players to show up and do their best, like professionals, and didn't go for too much rah-rah or hand-holding. He was business-like and analytical and that perhaps was a bridge too far for a sport steeped in tradition. I suspect the big-money season-ticket holders squawked the loudest and the drop in attendance was a clear signal to the ownership that they needed to act.

I'm really not interested in another managerial search. I'd rather they have someone in mind already and we can be spared the speculation. After all, it apparently doesn't matter that much, there are plenty of guys who can step in to the job. Just as long as they know they have a very short leash.

By the way Kai Correa is 0-1 in his managerial career.

--M.C.

Logan Webb is the man!

SF 2  SD 1

In my last post I said that "Webb can't do it alone" but it seems he took exception to that tonight and damn well tried to do it all alone. Fortunately his fielders made the plays and the the lineup eked out the bare minimum of runs to edge the Padres. Webb gave up a run in the 1st on a dinker, a double, and a dunker, and it looked like Blake Snell and the Padres bullpen (and the Giants offensive ineptitude) would make the 1-0 lead stand. Webb kept throwing his nasty stuff and kept grinding out one scoreless frame after another and it finally paid off in the 8th. Marco Luciano, who had a great night, doubled after LaMonte Wade, Jr. walked with one out. Joc Pederson was walked to load the bases and Patrick Bailey forced out Wade at home. Is there any team in baseball lousier with the bases loaded than the Giants? Michael Conforto, however, knocked in two with an opposite-field hit to give the Giants (finally!!) the lead. In a surprise but well-deserved move Kap eschewed his closer and sent out his ace to finish the job. Webb quickly got in trouble with back-to-back singles but once again Kap stuck with him and he got three ground balls from the next three hitters to complete the game and seal the win. One of the outs was a close play at home and I thought I was going to pass out from the tension. That was one of the best finishes we've seen in this agonizing, frustrating season.

We all know Webb is the star of the club and it's great that he had one of his best performances at home in his penultimate start. It was also good to see young (22 years old) Luciano put his stamp on the game. He's the 2024 shortstop at this point. Brandon Crawford is the greatest SS in SF history but I think we can all see that he's at the end of his illustrious career. I hope he retires and gets a proper send-off in the final home series vs. LA this weekend.

Webb's final line: 9 IP, 9 H (8 singles), 1 R, 0 BB, 7 K, 110 pitches (76 strikes), and 15 ground ball outs. He was masterful. I would like to note that Cy Young candidate Blake Snell (14-9, 2.25 ERA) threw 100 pitches in his six shutout innings. He leads all starters in walks with 99! I prefer Webb's efficiency (only 31 free passes). Snell averages just under 5-2/3 IP per start (180/32 = 5.63); Webb almost an inning more (216/33 =  6.55).

Kyle Harrison, who looked a lot better in his last outing (and the team played one of their worst games of the season), gets the start tomorrow night (6:45 PT).

Go Giants!

--M.C.

Webb can't do it alone

ARI 7  SF 1

The Giants dropped the final contest in Arizona yesterday and fell back to .500 and three games off the Wild Card pace. There are ten games left and the math is pretty close to impossible. Of course they could always simply "win out" (10-0 the rest of the way!) and shut everyone up but I reckon that's a bet no one will take. They will now have to compete with the San Diego Padres for third place in the NL West.

Logan Webb got peppered for nine hits in six frames but only one went for extra bases and he kept the game close with another quality start.The Giants had three hits total in another anemic display with LaMonte Wade, Jr.'s solo shot leading off the 1st providing the only run. Webb leads MLB in QS with 23, batters faced with 816, pitches thrown with 3072, and in IP with 207. He's a "horse" in the old-fashioned sense. His BB/9 (1.35) is 3rd-best, HR/9 (0.87) is 8th-best, FIP (3.21) is 6th-best, and ERA (3.35) is 10th-best. His 61.6% ground-ball rate leads MLB by a lot, the second-best belongs to Framber Valdez (54.3%). You'd figure Webb for a lot of DPs and in fact he's the best with 28. FanGraphs says he's 7th-best with 4.6 WAR and Baseball-Reference pegs him 4th with 5.0 WAR. Interestingly, Baseball Prospectus has Webb at #1 (5.0) in their version (called WARP) of this rather abstract metric. He's a stud, that's for sure, and is the team MVP by far. We should get to see him pitch two more times before the season wraps up. If the Giants had a better club and Webb had a winning record he would be a serious Cy Young Award candidate. (He'll get some well-deserved down-ballot votes but I suspect Spencer Strider* will take the NL prize with his ridiculous K-numbers.)

Kyle Harrison gets re-called for tonight's game in LA (7:10 PT). Let's hope The Kid can find his footing.

Go Giants!

--M.C.

 

*Strider leads MLB in a stat called xFIP with 2.89 and, you-guessed-it, Webb is 2nd with a 2.98 mark. xFIP tries to account for the "noise" in home run rates which vary a lot from year-to-year. It is otherwise calculated and scaled just like FIP which tries to separate out the parts of the game pitchers can actually control (BB,SO, HR, HBP). Defense Independent Pitching Stats (DIPS) were developed by a man named Voros McCracken about 25 years ago and the ideas are fundamental to sabermetrics.

Disaster in the desert

ARI 8  SF 4

The Giants shot themselves in the foot last night and hobbled through another ugly loss. Poor fielding, once again, was pivotal. Alex Cobb is clearly hurting, I'll be surprised if gets another start. Apparently he's had hip issues before and might need surgery in the off-season. The team has a $10M option ($2M buyout) on him for 2024 and I hope they keep him around.

I'm a fan and I always hold out hope for a miraculous turn-around but short of an eight-game winning streak or somesuch the Giants chances for the playoffs are vanishingly small. They really needed to win yesterday. At this point I hope they can hang on and finish with a plus-.500 record. There are eleven games left and seven of those are against the Dodgers.

Logan Webb goes this afternoon (12:40 PT). He was a beast last time out but got no help from his mates. He gets the Matt Cain Award for 2023, of course. I'm sure glad they signed him to a long-term deal.

Go Giants!

--M.C.

Epic fightback takes series

SF 6  CLE 5 (10)

This afternoon was just about the Most Giants-y Game of the year. This year, that is. They took a dump in the 1st when rookie Kyle Harrison pitched like, y'know, a rookie, and rookie third baseman Casey Schmitt played like, y'know, a rookie. Anyway, rookie Luis Matos salvaged something from an inept rally in the bottom of the 1st, then the Guardians tacked on, and it was 5-1 after two. It looked just like all those other hideous losses where the starter/opener takes it on the chin and the team can't recover. Alas, this time they rallied improbably, and scored in the 7th, the 8th, and the 10th to get their 75th win. Here's a short list of teams who don't have 75 wins: Mets, Yankees, Padres, Cardinals, Angels, and Red Sox. This season has been a slog but they are still in the fight so it was great to see them pull off a big comeback.

Alex Wood gets a nod for a superb relief stint. Harrison was done after four (82 pitches) having allowed seven hits (four doubles and a homer) and five runs (two on Schmitt's error). Wood threw four scoreless on just three hits. The Giants big hit came from J.D. Davis who hit a homer with two on in the 8th to tie the game. It didn't clear the fence by much but it was a huge blow nonetheless. Tyler Rogers put two on in the 9th after two were out but Camilo Doval bailed him out. Then Doval pitched a clean 10th and the Giants rallied in the bottom half with Late Game LaMonte delivering the winner, a sacrifice fly to score rookie Patrick Bailey.

Logan Webb gets the start tomorrow in Denver (5:40 PT). It's a four-game set through Sunday. Monday's an off-day.

Go Giants!

--M.C.