Monday, August 10, 2009

That PhoneCo mojo is running out

and at the worst possible time.

The LAtriners are a good hitting team (4th in OPS, 2nd in runs in the NL) and they know how to make a pitcher work--they've got the most plate appearances and highest OBA in the league. Our starters have to be damn close to perfect in order for us to win, and if they have any sort of bump in the road we are doomed.

Rather than lament our lamentableness, I decided to invent a new statistic. I intend to turn the sabermetric community upside down with this one. It is simple, bloody fookin' simple, and doesn't require anything but Baseball-Reference. And, well, divison. You can do division, right? Or you can put a nerd in an arm bar and force him to do it for you. Hell, you only have to threaten the nerd with a submission hold and he'll do it, am I right? Of course, you could just use a calculator. Or Excel. But that would be sort of nerdy, eh?

Take one Barry Lamar Bonds. Scary guy at the plate. Big BOO. Like "boo" as in "I'm scaring you." You see, Barry had 5,976 total bases in his career. And he made 7,313 outs. That's good. His BOO (bases over outs) is .817. See what I mean? Scary. You want scary? How about Edgar Renteria in 2009? 110 total bases and 291 outs. Ouch! Were talking .378! Well, we won't talk about guys like Randy Winn or Aaron Rowand. How about Pablo Sandoval? 221/280 = .789!! I love my new statistic. Don't you? Think of the fun! Albert Pujols? 266/286 (season) = .930 and 3122/3564 (career) = .876. (Barry's 1993 MVP season was 365/388 or .941, his 2001 MVP season was 411/330 or 1.245!) Finally, OUTS get their proper place in baseball analysis, and you can thank Your Humble Narrator, me. Now get cracking and calculate your favorite player's scariness quotient--his BOO number. High BOO means scary hitter (for the opposing pitcher). Low BOO means scary for the fans of the team that guy is on!

It's a drink-'til-ya-puke sort of evening for Giants fans tonight--cracking the seal on that other fifth will keep you from slitting your wrists (alcohol impairs hand-eye coordination). Tomorrow we can shake off our hangovers and try again. In the meantime, get scary. Get BOO. You'll thank me.

For the record:
The 2009 Giants have 1452 bases over 2963 outs for a .491 BOO.
The 2009 LAtriners have 1616 bases over 3048 outs for a .530 BOO.


Bob said...

Doesn't every team make the same number of outs? Except for extra inning games I suppose.
Beaten by LA. Beaten by LA. Beaten by LA.
What a drag.
At least Velez kept his streak alive. And getting both runs from solo homers is nicer than getting both runs of double plays.
One crappy 4th inning from JSanchez was the whole ballgame.
Winn is no damn good. When he comes to the plate he sucks the oxygen out of the stadium.
Go Joe!

Zo said...

Actually, I think this statistic is worthwhile, certainly as much as some of the esoteric WS+adj% type stats, which, although interesting in a nerdy sort of way, are really of little more use than batting average (yes, that's right). I guess you could figure a way to work sacrifices into the mix. Don't know how to work in the two umpire outs that were not really. Sanchez at first was close - wrongly called out but close. Aurilia should have been out but the call qualifies as the worst call of the year. When Loretta finally got the ball, he was off the base by at least 3 feet. I hope MLB was watching. I'm there tonight. Go, Joe!

JC Parsons said...

Hey, I'm back! I have many tales to tell, for example, I SAW Matt's terrible inning, in person thru the fence! UGH! A midget crushed a line drive HR and I went screaming down the pier. Sorry, I am worried about him. His last two outings semi-sucked - more runs than all last month, raised the ERA 0.2. He needs to right the ship ASAP or his break out season and our contention go up in smoke. Matt is the MVP this year. Tim got us decent all by himself, but Matt makes us very good.
Well, I'm still unpacking. Got to go. Look for a big announcement from here today - actually I already gave a pun clue above!

Ron said...

You're becoming a sailor? A pirate? ('right the ship')

You need to go to the bathroom? ('got to go')

This is way more fun that sabremetrics.

JC Parsons said...

This is why I love Ron. He loves a chalenge. The rest of youse guys could take a lesson.

Clue#2: What you have when you get this type of out every inning. Too easy?

Clue#3: The pun is second.

Zo said...

OK, I'll play.
Robyn's preggers: midget, screaming, suck.
You got a new dog or two: many tales.

JC Parsons said...

(Ixnay on the eggerspray)
We have a winner! Robyn fell in love with a new puppy, so we got it! The name, Sigil (like vigil not wiggle), honors a great Tribal bellydancer and is a cool word besides. Here's a photo. You are all required to go "AAAHHH".

M.C. O'Connor said...

Teams don't make the same number of outs--sometimes--in the same game!

If you score the winning run in the bottom of the 9th, there could be 0, 1, or 2 outs. If you don't play the bottom of the 9th, the home team only makes 24 outs that day even though the visitors made 27. Matt had a rain-shortened 5 IP CG earlier, that's only 15 outs. And, as you pointed out, there are extra-inning games. And not to belabor the point, teams often finish a season with a different number of games played (say 160--2 rainouts not made up, for example), thus different numbers of outs per team inthe same league.

JC Parsons said...

Hey MOC, sorry, didn't mean to hijack your thread. Its a cute metric, simple and clean. Does somebody get credit for meaningless bases before making an out? You know, trying to stretch a leadoff double into a triple and getting thrown out. That would help your BOO without any contribution to the game. Reaching by errors are bases right? They sure aren't outs.
I have a good feeling about Joe tonight. I also like our chances against a LHP; Garko will deliver big. If we take the next two (quite possible if we win tonight) then our home mojo can't be questioned.
BTW nobody tried to convince me not to worry about Matt. Am I just a worry wart?

Ron said...


B. Don't worry about Matt.

C. There are other components to worry about, however. Not the least of which is that we are relying on Velez. Nice little run he's putting together, but he doesn't strike me as the 'long haul' sort of guy. Our middle relief has been a bit shaky lately - big concern.