Thursday, January 13, 2011

Jonathan O. Sánchez

This guy has gotten better every single year he's been a starter. Check out the ERA+ improvement--wow! He ran out of gas in the post-season after that tremendous start against Atlanta. He was over 200 IP at that point--well past his career high--so it is not unreasonable to assume he was fatigued and thus not performing at his best. As maddening as he can be to watch (the walks! the walks! oh, the walks!), it is obvious we have a very talented pitcher, and one who delivered in the biggest game of the season. So how do you project the 28-year old lefty for 2011? Here's what ZiPS says:
30 starts,  172.3 IP,   141 H,    70 R,    18 HR,    87 BB,   183 SO,   114 ERA+
Here's another take on our boy (from Joe Pawlikowski at FanGraphs):
The reasons for my bearish view on Sanchez’s 2011 don’t center on BABIP, though his .262 mark from 2010 certainly won’t hold up. That will affect his ERA right away. He’ll also probably have worse infield defense behind him, as he’s going from Juan Uribe to Miguel Tejada at shortstop. What really worries me about Sanchez is his high walk rate combined with average-ish home run rate. His HR/FB ratio was right around the 10 percent rate we use for xFIP, and has been around that mark for his career. Those two factors then further combine with his high strand rate — 79.5 percent, well above his 72.2 percent career rate and fourth highest in the league in 2010 — to create a situation that he probably won’t sustain. If his LOB% falls to his career level next year, those walks are going to hurt more. The home runs will hurt more. I’d expect his ERA to climb into the 3.90 to 4.20 range next year. While that’s not bad by any stretch, it’s considerably worse than his 2010 performance.
Yeah, I know, it's a bit saber-y, but you are all big kids and I think you can handle it. So--what do you think about the 2011 version of Jonathan O. Sánchez? What are your projections?


p.s. I had a table with B-R stats but it caused a hell of a lot of formatting problems so I deleted it. Here's the link to JS's stats.

p.p.s. Here's the table, finally:
Year             W  L  ERA   G    IP   H   R  BB  SO   BF ERA+  WHIP
2006             3  1 4.95  27  40.0  39  26  23  33  185   92 1.550
2007             1  5 5.88  33  52.0  57  34  28  62  238   77 1.635
2008             9 12 5.01  29 158.0 154  90  75 157  695   88 1.449
2009             8 12 4.24  32 163.1 135  82  88 177  710  101 1.365
2010            13  9 3.07  34 193.1 142  74  96 205  812  133 1.231
5 Seasons       34 39 4.26 155 606.2 527 306 310 634 2640  101 1.380
162 Game Avg.    9 10 4.26  41   162 141  82  83 170  707  101 1.380

Provided by View Original Table
Generated 1/13/2011.


M.C. O'Connor said...

I'm experiencing some serious formattin issues in IE--tell me what you see! The post looks fine in Firefox and Chrome, but terrible (for some reason) in Explorer.

Brother Bob said...

Looks fine. I use Firefox.
Thanks for writing about Sanchez. I enjoyed reviewing his numbers. Of course numbers don't tell the whole story, especially when it comes to Puerto Rican southpaws. He's really the big question mark all the time, isn't he? If he attains some consistency, and Zito retains at least respectability, we will have a rotation for the ages.

M.C. O'Connor said...

I got the table to work by abandoning HTML. For some reason, IE adds all these extra lines to the blog post that don't show in Chrome or Firefox. Good thing B-R has options.