Thursday, October 13, 2016

First and Third

I was going to hold off and not post or comment until after the World Series but two things are true: (1) I'm a hopeless Giants junkie and (2) the Giants just fired two coaches. Bill Hayes and Roberto Kelly are out as first and third base coaches. I did not see that coming. They may or may not stay with the organization (all I know I got from the tweets in the sidebar, mostly from Baggs, reporting on the post-mortem press conference). So, that's what's up!

--M.C.


p.s. No doubt we've seen some poor baserunning this season, whether that was the fault of Hayes/Kelly I can't say, but firing coaches is a long-established practice, as we know. Thank you, gentlemen, for your efforts, and good luck going forward.

25 comments:

nomisnala said...

I like Kelly but not as a third base coach. He made some very poor decisions this year at third that costs us games in sending runners when he should not have, and not sending them when he should have. He made too many alpha and beta errors. Unless something else is going on, he has otherwise been a good coach. I had no problems with the first base coach, maybe the team has something different in mind. I would like to see a better offensive year next year from Posey. A little more power, a little higher average, and a bunch more Runs Batted In. A healthier year from Pence and a drop better pitch selection. A different approach to his swing by Belt, A much better year from Panik. A Power hitting left fielder who can also hit for a bit of average. Except possibly for health, I do not know if Span was an improvement in centerfield over Pagan. The rotation looks good for next year if healthy. Bumgarner, Cueto, Moore, Samardjixxx, and Blach/Cain. Blach may prove to be better than advertised. This looks like a playoff teams rotation. The hardest thrower in the group is Jeff S. but he may also be the one with the highest ERA, if Cain returns back to normal. Cain could be tried for closer? Wonder if we will invite Nathan back to Spring training? Do we want Romo, Casilla and or Lopez back? Seems to me that Romo as his name seems to imply can be a very effective Roogy.

campanari said...

Nomisnala seeks next-year Nirvana. OK. But I have an immediate problem, LA vs Chi. On the one hand, I hate the LA National League team, mali non nominandi. I have hated them for more than seventy years, starting with their earlier Brooklyn incarnation. This year, however, they managed to win the division despite having a record number of players on the DL, including Kershaw. They did well under a manager who used to be a Giant. They got swept by us so that we got into the Wild Card game, and then the playoffs. I can't root for them. But I can remain in pained neutrality as they play the much-hyped Cubs who just wiped out our season (with much help, agreed, from us) and also stole a Cuban outfielder from us last year. Should I? I'd like to see the Cubs lose, but can I let my anomalous animus against CCN outweigh my ancient, deep-rooted detestation of LAD? I'm grateful that the way the election is going buoys me up more than the lose/lose situation in NL baseball (or any conceivable situation in any baseball) weighs me down.

nomisnala said...

I can never forgive the Cubs for calling back the play on Merkle in 1908. This was way before they had replays and it was called on the giants, the game replayed and the Cubs won. Cost the giants. As much as I hate the dodgers, and hate is a mild word there, I was originally a giant fan from N.Y. and I will take Brooklyn over Chicago. I do think the Cubs have a better team, but the Bums are from our division. I wonder if the umps will give the Cubs every break against the dodgers that they did against the giants? Anyway it is a tough call. I was hoping for Dusty to bring his team to the next round, so I would not have to pick between the lesser of two evils. But this is not an election, and it is not a con man verses a seasoned politician. Whoever wins, the bums or the cubs, I will switch leagues and root for the American League, and I am a national league fan who usually roots for the N.L. in the W.S. but not this year. Roberts used Kershaw, Bochy could have used Cueto.

carmot said...

campanari, you must be referring to Eddy Julio Martinez. I've said it since before he ever became an IFA... I still believe Randy Arozarena is better. Possibly much better. Signed with STL.

You might not think much of my opinions or projections or scouting or whatever, that's your own judgment to make. Here's what I wrote before Yasmany Tomas ever played in MiLB or MLB. You can compare to his actual production. And be certain, since this wasn't on my own blog or Disqus- I have had no way to edit this info.

30+ 2B and 25+ HR, even if he hits .250 avg/.310 obp with only 40 BB to 140 SO in 500 AB.

http://whenthegiantscometotown.blogspot.com/2014/11/hot-stove-update-yasmany-tomas-to-sign.html?showComment=1417046097680#c2690394822770185186

-----------------------------

1B Coach: Royce Clayton
3B Coach: Mark DeRosa
Hitting Coach: Bernie Williams

Zo said...

I became the fastest Cleveland Indian fan bandwagon jumper in history.

But seriously, the doggers revealed that they are a flawed team - the next series is 7 games and as much as I dislike the Cubs - Cubs fans, really - they are a powerful, deep team with a rotation that LA can't match, even with Kershaw.

carmot said...

So sad... Two players I absolutely love on the Tribe are both injured. Michael Brantley is out for the season with shoulder surgery and Danny Salazar may be able to return soon. I've thought Kipnis is quietly one of the best 2B that not many people would mention. I'm actually very impressed with most of the Cubs. Maddon has them extremely well-prepared. I still say Cubs - Jays WS. Jays in SIX. Rep for all of Canada.

M.C. O'Connor said...

I was impressed by the way Roberts pulled the strings to get that win in DC. The Nats had their ace and the home field and Baker-ed it away. The Dodgers showed some grit. Their phenom SS--Seager--was the difference in the season. He was what, a 6-WAR player? Yikes. The Giants did not have a youngster emerge and make an impact on that level. They also had Urias step up from the minors and contribute. That's your four wins between 1st and 2nd place right there--two youngsters.

I'm rooting for the Cubs. Unless it is the Indians then I won't care. As I've said before I like to see long-suffering fans get a chance to enjoy a championship. I sure remember how it felt in 2010 to finally break through.

Oh, and here's stuff from yesterday's press conference:

Posey posted a .292/.366/.478 slash line in the first half but was at .282/.357.383 in the second half. Evans said the drop in slugging does not make it more likely that Posey sees more time away from the squat next season.

“It doesn’t make me think more about first base,” he said. “We’re always monitoring his health. We’re still confident that (catcher) is the best spot for him.

Ron said...

I want 10 more years of Posey as an effective contributor, not 5 more years of Posey playing Catcher full-time, with his skills & mobility in gradual decline, followed by retirement at the early age applicable to most Catchers. 10 more years of Posey at a high level keeps us competitive for longer, because he is such a commanding positive influence. We can plug in pieces around him. Posey retiring in 5 years is a sad prospect to consider. Of course, he will be our Manager one day, but that can wait for 10 years, too.

M.C. O'Connor said...

I think that is up to Posey. He strikes me as pretty smart. I'm sure he is only too aware of the risks associated with his job. He says all the time that he WANTS to catch. I think he likes being the field general and the challenge of being the backstop.

Will the expected increase in his offense by moving to first base offset the loss of his positional value? I don't think so, nor it seems do the Giants.


Brother Bob said...

Maybe the bullpen coach should have been fired. I'm sure everyone loves Mark Gardner, no doubt he's a swell guy. But apparently he doesn't know how to teach his staff how to GET OUTS.

Zo said...

I don't think Mark Gardner is at fault. No more than Bochy for making the moves he did. At some point you have to point the blame to the guy making the pitch (or credit the guy in the batter's box). Bochy was handed a multiple choice test with no right answers. None of the guys they sent in did what they were supposed to do. Should he have sent in Casilla? (Was Casilla even on the roster?) Should he have left in Law/Lopez/Romo for more than one batter? Maybe. He went with the matchups and that didn't work. But he did that because his latest closer, Romo, failed just recently. And the guy that looked really good the night before, Law, also failed. It reminds me of 2002, game 6, when Baker went with what was his money all year long and it didn't work. In that case, you have to do what you believe works, but it didn't. The other night, there was nothing that worked, so you have to patch together something in hopes that it gets you through the game. It also didn't work.

Leave Moore in. From John Shea in the Chronicle today, there has been one pitcher in the playoffs (17 starts) this year to go 120 pitches. That was Moore. The second most pitches have been thrown by Bumgarner, 119. Cueto threw 118. So there you have it - the top 3 pitch counts in the playoffs were all Giants. That says two things. One, we have fucking awesome starters. Two, our relievers blow. No news there, however, we just couldn't fake our way through the playoffs long enough to beat the Cubs. Too bad, too. One more inning and I really think they would have been seriously worried to face Cueto.

nomisnala said...

Pete Rose said he would have started the inning with Moore. Law failed one batter, a batter who is one of the best young hitters in the league. He came in a bit amped up, and was probably going to settle down. Cannot know that for sure. What that loss did, is get me to start planning on next year.

M.C. O'Connor said...

I think maybe if Boch had gone to Smith instead of Lopez it might have improved the odds. But the guys still have to execute. And the Cubs went after it. They deserve credit, it's not just about the Giants failure. A stinging failure, to be sure.

Smith may be a key guy next year. Our new version of Jeremy Affeldt?

Did you watch Andrew Miller pitch yesterday? Wow--Cleveland was smart to get him. Those kinds of relievers (the Affeldt types) can make a huge impact on these games.

So--the Cubs over the Dodgers? Think they'll emerge as NL champs? I must say I like the idea of getting beat by the best team. Takes a bit of the sting out.

Brother Bob said...

It shall be Cubbies vs. Indians. My mom is from Cleveland so I'm for them, but I won't complain if Chicago puts their stupid curse behind them.

campanari said...

I was unsure (see my post above) whether I was sufficiently anti-Cub to render me indifferent as to who won their series with LAD, but to my relief I find myself pro-Cub now that the games have begun.

Leaving Moore in, in our last game of the season: no one who is criticizing Bochy talked to Moore himself at the time, or consulted with Righetti. But Bochy did. Odds are that critics with less information, less personal and collaborative expertise, and fewer credentials--odds are that criticism from those critics is misdirected. I sometimes wonder whether all the baseball mavens who fancy themselves experts carry over their free-of-charge presumption to everything else in their personal and business lives. Of course fans can and should ask why Bochy does what he does, but to my mind that's asking for information, therefore antithetical to saying that he should have done something else in ignorance of why he did what he did.

M.C. O'Connor said...

". . . antithetical to saying that he should have done something else in ignorance of why he did what he did."

Dude, that shit rocks.

I like to think of it this way: Boch is a seasoned old pro. And a particularly smart one. He knows more than me. And you, too. So it's highly likely he did the right thing, I'm just failing to understand it.



When you can snatch the pebble from my hand, grasshopper . . .

Brother Bob said...

It was the will of The Baseball Gods.

nomisnala said...

The will of the baseball gods makes the most sense. As if Bochy via the baseball gods made his last inning moves like a pre-programmed robot. I think it is kind of authoritarian to think that only Bochy knew the right moves. Obviously he did not. I was cringing while he made them. I don't know if any moves would have come out better. But to assume he knows that much more than you do, is giving into the idea that all those years of following baseball, and watching every move, that you know so much less. He went with a bunch of different pitchers after all was said and done, so it was not like he said oh this guy is hurt so I will go with the other guy. Law was amped up higher than a kite. Lopez had a ridiculous walk rate this year uncharacteristic of his previous years with the giants. Romo is a Roogy, and does not always do well on consecutive nights. Strickland has great stuff, but often makes an occasional pitch too fat. Smith is good at times but not great and Bochy was shamed by the fans to not use Casilla. Otherwise, except for one of these guys hurting, he knew nothing more than you did. You can be throwing great in the pen, step into the game and lose it, or the opposite can be just as true. Baseball gods intervened, and the choke gods prevailed. For the Cubs the god of comebacks ruled. He forgot about Merkle.

M.C. O'Connor said...

I'm always willing to submit to the gods. They, after all, rule regardless of our belief or disbelief. I will not however, accede to the point: a fan is not a practitioner. One who makes his livelihood at baseball is an expert, one who does not is a dilettante. Because the expert makes so many public decisions, all subject to intense post-event scrutiny, there are bound to be times when the expert is 'wrong' and the poseur is 'right.' That is happenstance, mostly, and only occasionally because the expert is, in fact, wrong. Not to mention that most of the probabilities at this level, especially in the post-season, are damn narrow margins. So the bets are rarely on sure things, and consequently we often look smarter than we deserve, or, if you are Dusty Baker, dumber than you really are.

But that was a fine, elegant piece.

campanari said...

Again, Bochy could sit next to Moore, could look into his face, could ask him questions, could consult with expert coaches and with Posey. Not one of the veteran fans had that knowledge, or the experience of watching the guy pitch many games up close. Nor can they ask the bullpen coach and catcher any questions about the reliever warming up. Yet they act as though this information counts for nothing, which is self-serving: if I don't have it, it doesn't exist, at least not usefully.

More generally, none of them is accountable if they go wrong, few have experience managing a bunch of young millionaires, few are friends with dozens of baseball professionals of various sorts, and none inhabit this team's clubhouse or is a skilled (because accountable) observer of the range of interpersonal dynamics.

This is of course not meant to say that with every manager, the pro is right and the disagreeing amateur wrong; it isn't to deny that with every pro there are times when he's wrong and some amateur(s) right. Maybe Bochy should have handled the pitching different in the 9th inning of that disastrous game (but also, maybe not--a relief pitcher should be able to get three outs before three runs score). What I am peeved to see is how rarely the hindsight-enabled critics seem to realize how much they don't know, how open to querying motives rather than making pronouncements they should be, and how much modesty would, at least in my eyes, be appropriate.

Ron said...

Meanwhile, this political season has resulted in gaining new respect for a couple of Athletes I always disliked:

- First, LeBron James issued a couple of very pro-Hillary Clinton statements, focusing on her achievements, especially with Children. I wish more people made the affirmative case for Clinton, instead of ONLY trashing her admittedly very unsavory opponent.

- Perhaps even more surprisingly, I am now forced to admit admiration for Adrian Gonzalez, who refused to stay with his Team's in a Trump-owned Hotel in Chicago. On the other hand, given that the guy has alienated humanity &, more specifically, implicitly alienated over half of your Roster & Staff, what kind of slimy organization would book its Team into a Trump-owned Hotel in the first place. Oh, yeah ... the Dodgers are pretty slimy alright. I hope that the Cubs win each of the next 3 Games by 4-2 scores, with Gonzalez homering twice in each Game. Then, of course, we can give him a big cheer for his stand at AT&T next year, before he goes hitless against us for 19 Games.

M.C. O'Connor said...

Sabermetrics was the purview of amateurs for years until it was adopted by the mainstream and now those nerds from their mothers' basements are carrying briefcases into meetings with GMs. I also think we are seeing more and more game theory creeping into sports analysis, often the outsider/non-expert can bring new ways of evaluating decisions to organizations. Baseball is very tradition-bound, and for many years quite closed to innovation and new ideas, that's changing. And now we have all this data like statcast and pitch f/x that is available to anyone, consequently we fans are potentially far more knowledgeable than in the past. Plus there is more transparency with players tweeting and writing blogs and we get a different sense of how things are done in the dugout. Certainly the amateur can offer informed analysis, not just rants, and the discussions and post-mortems these days are certainly more interesting and enlightening.

campanari said...

Ron and MC, I couldn't agree more with you both. My reading and at times contributing to this blog proves my agreement with MC; and his impeccable logic would make me agree with Ron, if I did not emphatically do so already.

nomisnala said...

Baseball is a bit different than many professions where the experts are truly the experts because they have studied an entire body of knowledge that others do not know when they make their decisions. Even in fields which require a tremendous amount of expertise, experts sometimes disagree. Of course when it comes to global climate change, almost 99 percent of all scientists are in agreement that humans have contributed to the change to a considerable degree of the last half century. Baseball is different. There a fans that study every move, every swing, have played high school, and or college ball, and may have even played in the minors. Some have coached little league, pony league, sandlot, college, PAL, or even the minors. There are fans who only lack the information of how bad a player is hurting during a particular day. Sometimes the player can hide it from a manager, and a fan, who has some medical expertise, can see that something is wrong and undiagnosed. Don't get me wrong, I want Bochy back, but his manager decisions this year especially after the all star break can be challenged frequently. Not only after the fact, but often before the fact. Ir is no wonder Casilla's stats started to corrode, when he continually had to face Lamb. It would be like putting Lincecum in to face Goldschmidt. There are some hitters who just have a pitchers number, and matchups are important in a penant race. The last time he went with the Casilla Lamb match-up, I wanted to send Bochy a book of Einstein's quotes. Yes I want Bochy back because in the long hall he has been a great manager, but in the last 60 to 75 days of this season, he needs to look back on each move and do some introspection. Dusty blew it this year again in the playoffs, and I am hoping that Bochy brings us back to the promised land once again in 2017. One more thing, several of the top GM's these days, have been academic students of baseball as opposed to folks who have worked their way up through the baseball ranks. Young baseball savants so to speak.

M.C. O'Connor said...

Cubs got trounced last night in LA. They aren't hitting at all in the post-season. I think maybe the Dodgers watched the Giants series and saw that the favorites might be vulnerable. For all the trumpeting of Joe Maddon as a manager (and it seems he's a good one), the Dodgers might have an equally good one. Roberts has really impressed me. That's been an edge for the Giants--having Boch--but LA finally found a guy with some real skills. Makes next season an even bigger one as four straight 2nd-place finishes is getting old. Giants need to get back to the top spot.

Plenty of baseball left, it seems. Indians are starting a rookie after failing to clinch with their ace. Cubs are in a hole and are facing a rookie!