Wednesday, December 20, 2017

Giants Go Longo

The Giants did exactly what I didn't want them to do--they traded for Evan Longoria. He used to be one of the best players in the game. Now he is older and not as good and he's ours for five years. And they had to give up Christian Arroyo to get him. On the plus side they moved Denard Span in the deal and that means they will have to find a centerfielder. Longoria improves the team for the coming season, and that needed to happen. Armchair owner/GMs like me are willing to let the team lose in order to get younger; real GMs in San Francisco are not. The Giants are going to rebuild by pretending they are not, and in the meantime they'll get some quality players here and there and try to stay competitive. It should be a better club in 2018 just from our core people performing closer to their career averages than they did in 2017.

Regardless, I want Longoria to thrive with the Giants. Even if he isn't what I wanted for Christmas I'm not going to complain. The best thing that can happen is that he stays healthy and plays well, so I'm rooting for that. Welcome aboard, Evan.

--M.C.

18 comments:

nomisnala said...

The only reason I can be happy about this trade is if Longoria contributes significantly and the giants make it to the playoffs. Living in Florida and watching many games that Tampa plays in that band box, I thought his offense was over rated. His defense is good. But we had two cheap options at third. Arroyo almost ready to get his next chance and Pablo as a place holder, both for under 1 million total. Also Longoria is ten years older than Arroyo and almost a full year older than Sandoval. Much of Longoria's 5 WAR is defense. On the plus side he is a righty, but on the down side he strikes out a lot, and his OBP last year was 313. We had Nunez, Duffy, and Sandoval not to mention McGehee in the last 2 years and the giants have a history of getting rid of their own at third, only to trade for folks who end up less than we hoped for. In 5 years Arroyo will be 27 and Longoria 37. The problem I had with Span was just that he could not throw, and runners would get from first to third on a hard hit single to center, even if the runner was slow. I don't think that Spans offensive numbers last year, especially as a lefty in SF, were much different from Longoria's. We traded for Longoria, after he had a down year, and Tampa thought they would be trading low. But, they got a guy they knew from their own backyard, and Arroyo's prospect status for some reason has been down played by the giants, and I am not sure why. Maybe Arroyo will be a flub, but it seems as if he can field, make contact, and probably will develop his power numbers. Even though I live in Southeast Fla. The Tampa games are televised here every day. I may bet to watch a Duffy Arroyo infield for years to come.

campanari said...

Longoria strikes out a lot, says Nomisnala. But he doesn’t. The average K rate is about 20%, and that’s where Longoria has been through his career.. Last year he was at 16%, the mark that Fangraphs takes as above average.

I’m as dismayed as anyone about the Giants’ taking on another costly, declining vet. Still, Tampa Bay is reportedly paying us $14.5MM, so that the AAV we’re paying for this 2017 Golden Glover comes to $12MM for his five-year contract, the equivalent of what? 1.5 WAR a year? Seems like a bargain to me, barring unpredictables such as were suffered by Sandoval (injured and/or close to worthless since he defected to Boston), Duffy (not yet having played unhurt for the Rays), and Arroyo (two injuries last year; now playing with a metal plate in his hand), which occur to younger players as well as older.

campanari said...

Added note: Nomisnala knocks Longoria’s offense by calling Tropicana Field, where L has played his home games since he came into MLB, a band box. It isn’t. It has a park factor that as of 2017 ranked 24th out of 30 MLB parks, and 22nd as to home runs. One can’t dispute that AT&T ranks lower, 27th out of 30, and suppresses HRs most. Still, Longoria has had less favorable hitting environments than his AL counterparts: only one AL park had a 2017 park factor lower than Tropicana in 2017, Houston, and only two, Boston and Kansas City, suppressed HRs more. Unless Nomisnala has actual stats to support his sniff at Longoria’s offensive numbers, as compared to those of his counterparts on other teams, I’d say his opinion on this subject carries no weight beyond being a personal impression, whence one doesn’t know.

Ron said...

Why have the Rockies signed Jake McGee, Brian Shaw, AND are also talking to Addison Reed, & we haven't been in on any of them? It seems like these guys are exactly what we need, even if Smith & Melancon are back to form, & Law becomes who we thought he would become. In fact, I can't remember any chatter about us & decent Relief Pitchers this off-season. Isn't that supposed to one of our needs?

obsessivegiantscompulsive said...

Thanks campanari, I didn't have my handy park effects book with me. I thought the Rays park as not as offensive minded as nomisnala was saying. And looking at his home/road split, almost the same, .836 OPS home, .811 OPS away.

Thanks also for pointing out the WAR and salary implications with the cash included. I forgot about that angle. That's 1.5 WAR but closer to 1.0 WAR by the end. If he can keep up the defense, he might do it just from that.

obsessivegiantscompulsive said...

I never understood their comment about upgrading the bullpen, other than we needed a loogy like Lopez.

We have Melancon, Dyson, Smith, Strickland, and Gearrin already taking up 5 of 6 spots, and Crick is pretty close to that last spot. I think that's a pretty good bullpen right there, some age, some youth, some in-between. They added Fernandez with the Rule 5 draft, so if they keep him, Crick is in AAA (unless a trade for CF or corner OF costs them a reliever). We also have Law, Okert, and Osich, and I think all three are capable of holding a spot if Crick or Fernandez struggles.

Then there is the long relief spot, but we got Stratton, Blach as two sure competitors for the #4 and #5 spots, plus Beede and Suarez also as competitors for those spots as well as long relief. Giants generally signs a Todd Wellemeyer type to provide competition for the last spot in the rotation, as well, so there is no space there, unless they decide to stretch out the middle relievers so that they can handle bullpen games occasionally. And potentially one of the losers could end up in a short relief role if the need arises.

So unless they are talking loogy, and a number of them have signed, I don't see how that is happening unless they are planning on trading one or more of our right-handed relievers. Plus, we did not have a lot of money to spend on a reliever until Moore was traded, so that's another reason the Giants had to wait.

nomisnala said...

Al,my opinion comes from watching all of Tampa's games. I hate to say it, but sometimes figures lie. I watch the giants on the baseball package. Obviously it is a very tough park for lefties, and righties who go opposite field that do not have Stanton type power. If the figures say that Tampa is one of the harder parks to go deep at, the figures defy what one sees watching the games and seeing the shots that go out in that park. I do think the power problem for righties who mostly go deep to the left side of the field should not be a problem. What do you mean he does not strike out a lot. He does compared to most of the players on the giants. Let us see what we think after a few months. Perhaps he can end up being super clutch, and along with his fielding, that would play nicely. Crawford basically hits around 250, is an excellent fielder, has some power, and because he seems to get his share, or more than his share of key hits. he remains a fan favorite and a valuable asset.

nomisnala said...

OGC, that money transfers into WAR only if we use it to get players who make it happen. Otherwise it is just money on paper. If we utilize the opening to get the right player(s), we may be able to see more than 1.5 WAR.

nomisnala said...

OGC, I was thinking along the same lines about relief, especially as we were spoiled for a few years by a very successful Loogy, until he faded out. I do worry about Osich and Okert. neither of them have seen to harness their talent effectively in the majors. They will have a new pitching coach to work with, but we will have to see if that has any effect whatsoever. Smith may not be ready by the start of the season. The giants always seem to be able to find some toss out pitchers to bring to Spring training, and sometimes one of them surprises us, and ends up making the roster instead of someone we all thought was a sure 40 man roster player. Getting away from the comments on relief pitching, I have been seeing reports that the giants are close to signing Jay Bruce. I am not sure how I feel about that. Another power guy, medium quality fielder, who hits dingers but not for a high average. We will need some players to hit for a high average besides Posey.

campanari said...

I can’t comment on nomisnala’s contention that Fangraphs’ park factor figures “lie” as to Tropicana Park as a hitting environment, since if he believes that, he and I lack any common basis for discussion. I don’t know if we will have the same impasse as to strikeout rates. He says that Longoria strikes out more than most of the players on the Giants: well, he strikes out much more than Posey and Panik, about the same as Pence and Crawford, and less than Belt, those being the Giants players who seem suitable for comparison in number of PAs and significant role as hitters. The likelihood of the Giants’ finding someone who hits for as much power as Longoria has, but strikes out less, is pretty slim, I think.

I share nomisnala’s caution as to Bruce, whose defensive fWAR recently suggests that he’s a pretty lousy fielder, who really does K much too much, and whose feeble BA concerns me as it does nomisnala. If we get Bruce we will need Mercury or Captain Marvel as a center fielder between him and mid-30s Pence.

Finally, as to relief pitching: we didn’t get too few innings out of our starters in 2017, we got too many, if the latest analytics are to be believed. More and more teams are pulling starters early, because of the findings that BAA goes up when batters face a pitcher the third time through the lineup. Ampler and better relief staffs have increasing strategic importance in this scheme as opposed to the one(s) we grew up with or, as to L-R matchups, have watched Bochy employ. Though I agree with ogc about ours, I’m unsure whether it doesn’t require some reconceptualization as to its makeup in the light of what may be changed roles.

nomisnala said...

If you have pitchers that can go through the batting order 3 times, than fine. Some teams have those guy and some do not. Dodgers had several guys who were good for two pass through's but they also had a deep pen, one which had ample reinforcements so they would not overly tire as a team, except they did tire a bit by the time of the playoffs. Giants won 3 world series using pitchers with the hope of 3 pass through's when possible. Our relievers pitched less, than many other teams, but for some reason the giant's relievers could barely handle the load. Many of them lose effectiveness if they pitch too much. It should be an option that the manager has, but he should be very alert to the signs of a pitcher fading. It is always a tough call. If a pitcher still has his great stuff late in the game and shows not signs of tiring, than let him pitch. If he starts to tire than take him out. I thought most games that Blach pitched he lost it at about 95 pitches give or take a few. Once or twice he remained fine for more pitches but many times it was like clock work. And then we once had a guy named Tomko, who would go a few innings and looked great, then fall apart for an inning, and give up 4 or 5 runs, and even if they kept in him he may go right back and pitch a few more good innings. Those are the guys that either, temporarily lose their arm slot, suddenly tip off their pitches, or lose their concentration. It happens in other sports as well. The quarterback who is on fire for the first two quarters. than cannot complete a pass in the third quarter, than leads his team to a winning drive in the 4th quarter, mostly with very accurate passes.

El said...

Interesting SFchron article showing OPS & times thru lineup for Giants' (and A's) starters.

http://tiny.cc/5mompy

Blach jumped out:
.601 1st .872 2nd .846 3rd

JC Parsons said...

Seems like we need a new thread to talk pitching....But to get back to the original idea:

Picking up Longoria is a good move. I don’t buy the age factor as much in some guys. When they are really good, like H of F good, the years after 32 can be quite exciting. Especially third basemen. Also, lesser humans, like Justin Turner (who is 33) can be rather impactful as well. I guess part of this is that I was never much impressed by Arroyo, good but not toolsy enough to have much impact. Actually a lot like Duffy, who I also was in favor of moving. Another good part is unloading Span. Now we get to go get some one else or two. A young stud OF and some relief help. I think people will change their thinking when they see just how good Longoria’s defense is, especially next to Crawford. That will be very impressive. When was the last time we had a big time defensive third baseman??

Anyway, that’s my notion. I’m thinking Evan is going to end up quite beloved in a few years. He is adored in Tampa Bay, right?

Ok, you may return to the relief pitching debate.

M.C. O'Connor said...

They clearly had to fill the black hole at third base, and a healthy Longoria does that and more. It's a very Giants-y move, getting a veteran with a predictable track record, with the bonus that he doesn't cost that much. Clearly the Giants share your "I don't buy the age factor" notion, they have always been willing to field relatively old teams.

Ron said...

Longoria was a better option than Frazier - that's my mildly optimistic spin. So, that leaves the entire OF, Starting Pitching, & Relief Pitching to address. That's quite a bit.

nomisnala said...

I want to know when Arroyo's potential dropped so much?

Ron said...

Here's some interesting news:

After resting for the first part of the off-season, Sergio Romo is now pitching in the Mexican Winter League (Los Charros de Jalisco). He has appeared 3 times to-date, giving up 2 runs in 5 IP w/ 4 K's & 0 BB's. I'll have to tune in more to the Latin American Sports Channel to see if I can find a Charros Game to watch!

Ron said...

Romo's Teammates include Jarrod Saltalamacchia & Jabari Blash.