Merry Christmas . . .

. . . and a Happy New Year.

I skied yesterday in a lovely snowstorm and when I was in the lodge I saw Santa. I went over and said "all I wanted for Christmas was snow, so thanks!" He shook my hand and said "no problem."

Of course what I really want for Christmas is for the 2019 Giants to be awesome! Am I right?

I hope everyone is enjoying the holidays.

--M.C.

The Winter Meetings

The Giants Brain Trust and their twenty-nine counterparts will be meeting this coming Monday in Las Vegas for the annual MLB rite known of course as The Winter Meetings. Newly-installed President of Baseball Operations Farhan Zaidi brought in some new people in advance of this. Long-time amateur scouting director John Barr has been replaced by Michael Holmes who worked in Oakland in a similar capacity. They also added Zack Minasian who was a special assistant in Milwaukee. He will oversee professional scouting. Former Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi is also supposedly joining the team as a special assistant. I suppose the organizational flowchart will be in flux for a while and we might not fully know who's-who and what's-what but I suspect it will come together at some point. The Giants are making changes just like they said they would. Perhaps by the end of the week we'll have some new bodies in Giants uniforms as well.

--M.C.

It's Official

One way to improve your club is to poach talent from another club, in this case your long-time rivals. The Giants hired Dodgers GM Farhan Zaidi to be their President of Baseball Operations.

 

Here's Larry Baer:

“We set out to find one of the best minds in baseball and Farhan’s many accomplishments and expertise exceeded our expectations,” said Baer. “Farhan is widely viewed as one of the top executives in our industry and we are thrilled to have him lead the next chapter of Giants Baseball.”

Here's Mr. Z:

“I am delighted to return to the Bay Area and to join one of the most storied franchises in the game,” said Zaidi. “I have watched the Giants from afar and I have great respect for the organization’s culture and many accomplishments. I am excited about this new opportunity and I’m looking forward to getting right to work.”

Zaidi has a PhD from Cal and worked for the Athletics before going to LA. By all accounts he is a very smart and accomplished fellow so I am happy the Giants landed him. He has a five-year contract. Here's Baggs' take (this is before the announcement):

But the mere fact that Zaidi is their first choice should tell you something: they are no longer interested in a caretaker to prop up a fading roster. They are ready to do a 180 from a highly accomplished but flawed front office whose insular methods of roster creation have allowed them to fall behind their contemporaries.

The off-season just got very interesting!

--M.C.

RIP Willie Mac

Willie McCovey passed away on Wednesday. Giants fans of my age group (I was born in 1959) got to see him at his best when we were young and impressionable. His greatest seasons were 1968-1970 and ballplayers seemed like mythical beings when we were that age. He really was something on the field and he came back to the Giants and flashed a little of the old magic for a few years before retiring in 1980. He was much beloved by fans, teammates, and the organization.

--M.C.

Been there, done that

Much was made of the how well the 2018 Boston Red Sox hit with runners in scoring position and two outs in the World Series. Seems like we know a team that did just about the same thing not long ago:

The chart is from Jay Jaffe at FanGraphs.

Yes, that 2010 World Series Champion San Francisco Giants team is special for a lot of reasons. Slugging .895 with two outs and runners in scoring position is just another on the list!

--M.C.

Finis

The Boston Red Sox complete their remarkable 108-win season with a remarkable 3-loss post-season. They played three really good teams--the Yankees, the Astros, and the Dodgers--and lost only one game to each. That's, like I said, remarkable.

No more baseball in 2018, unless of course you are fans of the Japan Series. The Mystic Zo reports that the Carp have notched the first win of the best-of-seven finals. The Hiroshima Toyo Carp is the NPB team-of-choice here at RMC.

The Giants have tantalized us with talk of a new brain trust for 2019. I'm expecting they'll have to have people in place by the Winter Meetings. That means the month of November ought to be interesting.

Only 115 days until the first Spring Training game!

--M.C.

114

The 114th version of the World Series is upon us. Game One is at Fenway on Tuesday. The 2018 AL champion Red Sox beat two 100-win teams, including last year's champs, to get to the Fall Classic. Early odds have Boston at -125. The LA Dodgers return as NL champions winning on the road in Milwaukee in the seventh game of the LCS. Naturally we here at RMC were rooting for the Brewers, but such is life. I have a lot of friends who are Dodgers fans so I know they'll be happy. The Red Sox are my mom's team and I know my east coast family members are happy.

Giants fans will have to wait until next year, of course. Perhaps we'll get some exciting changes this off-season. In the meantime, enjoy the ballgames.

--M.C.

LCS set

It seems fitting that the two best teams in the American League, the Boston Red Sox and the Houston Astros, will meet to decide the pennant. The two best teams in the National League, the Milwaukee Brewers and the Los Angeles Dodgers, meet to decide the pennant as well. The playoffs worked, mostly, as seeded. The number-one team will open their best-of-seven series at home. The NLCS starts Friday and the ALCS starts Saturday. Eduardo Nuñez is the only former Giants player I'm aware of on an LCS roster, if you are looking for a rooting interest. Obviously it is "Beat LA" around here, not to mention that it is very hard to root against a team named for beer-makers. I not only like beer, I make it, too. So "Go Crew!"

--M.C.

How Much Do Injuries Matter?

I throw out the question because, with respect to the 2018 Giants, I honestly don't know.   Here is a list of the Giants' position players who have spent time on the disabled list this season:

Buster Posey
Brandon Belt
Evan Longoria
Joe Panik
Hunter Pence
Alen Hanson
Steve Duggar
Mac Williamson
Pablo Sandoval

That's our entire infield including a couple of the back-ups.  It's easier to make a list of players that weren't on the DL: Kelby Tomlinson, Brandon Crawford, Gregor Blanco, Gorkys Hernandez, Nick Hundley (thank god for that), Austin Slater and the FNG's called up in September.  I see 2 guys there who are legit full time major leaguers (maybe 3 if Slater develops further).  And Andrew McCutcheon, who gave us 5/6 of a season before he was traded.  Of course, that doesn't include the pitchers: Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija, Mark Melancon, Will Smith, Hunter Strickland.  The Giants fortunately got exceptional performances out of their young pitchers, otherwise, it would have been a long view up at San Diego.

But just what toll did the injuries take?  There have been some statements to this already.  Ron said, "Every team has plenty of injuries every season."  Nomisnala said, "Injuries hurt this team severely."  I read a quote from the Giants trainer that said he had never even heard of a team with this many injuries.  Of course, that is a bit of a self-serving line for the Giants to put out.  But I wonder, just how much better would the Giants have been had they gotten decent seasons out of most of their players?  Clearly injuries played some part, and clearly every team has them throughout the year.  Also, the injuries have an effect that is longer than the length of the DL stay - a player has to rehab, and then get back to major league play.  It doesn't seem like that happens easily.  Madison said his mechanics were at their best right before he got hurt - not late in the season after he had rehabbed in the major leagues for 4 months.

So what do you think?  10 games?  That would make a big difference.  1 game?  It's clear that the Giants need to make some moves to muscle up the team, yet it is also clear that the Giants are still going to be built around pitching (finishing, after that historically horrendous September with a 5th-best team ERA).  I've said that I thought the Giants improvement (which was ultimately only 9 wins) was the result of pitching.  But how better could they have been without the injuries?

Thus Spoke Bossman

This was the tail end of a longer piece from LarryB on the website. You can read it here.

A sampling:

You’d think with all the ups and downs of the game I’d have learned how to accept them as simply part of the life cycle of a team. I don’t. We don’t. The expectation of the San Francisco Giants every single year is to contend for the postseason. Falling short any year is a disappointment.

I like to take a guy at his word until he proves I ought not to. Like I said before, it should be an interesting November!

--M.C.

9th inning: 5-13

1st inning: 7-11
2nd inning: 12-6
3rd inning: 6-12
4th inning: 10-8
5th inning: 11-7
6th inning: 8-10
7th inning: 8-10
8th inning: 6-12
9th inning: 5-13

Today was a sad day to be a Giants fan. Some team in Giants uniforms showed up to play, but they delivered a listless, desultory performance that had some in attendance--with good reason--streaming for the exits in the early innings despite Fan Appreciation Day giveaways. If Dodgers fans won most of the prizes, good on them. Today was an embarrassment and it capped a month of the worst baseball we've seen in a long time, perhaps ever. The Giants go 6-21 5-21 for September: a .222  .192 win percentage. I don't want to know where that rates in the History of the Franchise, but I'm sure someone will tweet it before the end of the day.

Should be interesting this November!

--M.C.

Madison Bumgarner's 2018 Numbers, or Bum's Nums

In 2018, Madison Bumgarner started the season with a broken hand, suffered at the end of spring training.  Madison's record this year is 6 wins against 7 losses.  That was after a 2017 that featured his dirt biking accident that kept him sidelined for about half a season.  Neither season was notable, except for how poorly the Giants did in 2017, and they will finish as a sub-.500 club in 2018 as well.  Their improvement is only notable because it came from such a low baseline.  Madison Bumgarner is the ace of our staff, without question.  There is more energy when he is on the mound, although he usually (not always, though) is fairly non-emotive as he pitches.  Here is a comparison of the last couple of years:

2014   217 IP,  9.07 K/9,  0.87 HR/9,  1.09 WHIP,  21 HR,  8.04 H/9,  3.36 R/9
2015   218 IP,  9.65 K/9,  0.87 HR/9,  1.01 WHIP,  21 HR,  7.46 H/9,  3.01 R/9
2016   226 IP,  9.97 K/9,  1.03 HR/9,  1.02 WHIP,  26 HR,  7.07 H/9,  3.14 R/9
2017   110 IP,  8.19 K/9,  1.38 HR/9,  1.09 WHIP,  17 HR,  8.19 H/9,  3.36 R/9
2018   130 IP,  7.57 K/9,  0.97 HR/9,  1.24 WHIP,  14 HR,  7.46 H/9,  3.54 R/9*

* Innings pitched, Strikeouts per 9 innings, Home Runs per 9, Walks + Hits per Inning Pitched, Home Runs, and Runs per 9.

So, without applying statistical analysis to any of these figures (most of which I have forgotten anyway), I would say that Madison's WHIP and runs/9 innings have gone up a little bit.  If his WHIP is up, it has to be because his walks are up, because his hits/9 is actually down from last year, and more consistent with his best years of 2014 - 2016.  In fact, the number of walks he issued matches the number in 2014 (43) in nearly 100 fewer innings.  In comparison, in 2017, he issued only 20 walks.   Why is that?   Have right-handed batters learned to lay off those pitches that tail away from the strike zone?  Also, in spite of the fact that the number of hits he has given up has fallen to a number consistent with his 2014 - 2016 totals, the runs he has given up has increased.  I don't know if the difference is significant, but it is interesting to me to see these numbers all in the 3's.  That means you need 4 runs to win, which at least right now, seems a stretch for the Giants.  Here is how it breaks out in terms of runs allowed per game:

2014 - 2.45; 2015 - 2.28; 2016 - 2.32; 2017 - 2.41; 2018 - 2.71

I'm just going to say that I think 2.71 is significant.  It means more than 5 runs in 2 games whereas in his prior years, he allowed less than 5 runs in 2.  That means something on a team that struggles to score any.

John Shea wrote a column the other day that stated that the new GM, whomever he or she may be, could trade Madbum.  Of course, that is predicated on the fact that he, unlike Buster Posey or Brandon Crawford, does not have a no-trade clause.  It's also a recognition of the potential value to a trade partner.  Those clauses can always be broken, though with the player's consent.  But he's really not saying anything.  The same is true for any player without a no-trade clause and is equally true for Bobby Evans as it is for a new face.  Bruce Jenkins, taking a brief pause from his "you kids and your statistics get off my lawn" rants, opines that the Giants should keep Madbum because the rest of the pitchers are too young and inexperienced.  Personally, I want to see him stick around.  I love hearing his thick drawl on the commercials, and I want him on my team should the Giants get back to playoff baseball.  He has more than earned it.  And I am not convinced that he can't get back on track, should he be able to remain injury-free.  A broken hand seems to be a tough thing to come back from.  I don't think his skill set is deteriorating, he's only 29.   The way he is built, he has the potential to be pitching when he is 40.  That's potentially a lot of valuable left handed starts from someone who has 3 World Series rings and has been instrumental in winning all of them.  I'll say this, though.  If Madbum is to be traded, it better damn well be for a monster.  No middle infielders with "potential", we've got those guys up the ass.  Aaron Judge.  Ronald Acuna.  A real force.

Madbum's Last of 2018 is a Turgid Affair

This was supposed to be a story about Madison Bumgarner, ideally one in which he would dominate the doggers and the Giants would put a dent in the playoff and division championship hopes of LA.  Instead, it was a just OK Madbum and too, too much of the same old, same old 2018.  Too little offense.  LA 3, Giants 1 in our park.

Madbum threw 6 innings, he had to pitch around an error and a hit in the 1st, but held LA scoreless.  By the end of the 2nd, he was already at 40 some-odd pitches, and had given up another hit.  LA scored in the 3rd, and then Justin Turner hit a 2-run shot in the 5th.  Madison was done after 6, with 6 strikeouts, 1 walk, 7 hits, 3 earned runs and 112 pitches.  Duane Kuiper reported that he had asked Madbum when during the year his mechanics felt best, and Madbum said it was at the end of spring training.  That was right before he got his hand broken.

Todd Hundley launched a home run over the Chevron car in left in the bottom of the 2nd.  Of course, no one was on base.  The Giants loaded the bases with 1 out in the 4th, but grounded into a double play.  The Giants grounded into 5 double plays on the night, including in the 8th and 9th inning.  So that effectively erased all their hits except the Hundley home run (although the Giants actually were the beneficiaries of 3 walks and 1 error).  No matter, it was a punk effort that came up short.  It is going to take better than pretty good pitching to win with this offense.

I was going to post some numbers and thoughts about Madbum, but it's late, and I'll get to that later.

Three to go

The Giants have three games left in their disappointing season and they take on the LA Dodgers who are fighting for a playoff spot. The boys in blue are one game back of the Colorado Rockies for the NL West top spot and a game ahead of the St. Louis Cardinals for the second Wild Card berth (the Milwaukee Brewers* have clinched the other). The urgency for the Dodgers should add some frisson to the matchups, with nothing left for the Giants but bumping their rivals we could see some good games. Madison Bumgarner gets the call tonight against Hyun-Jin Ryu. Rookie Dereck Rodriguez faces Clayton Kershaw tomorrow, and rookie Andrew Suarez takes on rookie Walker Buehler on Sunday. The Giants, I suppose, are itching to play spoiler. I sure hope so--it's not much but it beats finishing in fourth place. If the Rockies and Dodgers tie, they will play a tiebreaker Monday in LA. If the Cardinals catch up and force a three-way tie, the winner of Monday's game will play in St. Louis on Tuesday to determine the Wild Card, and that game (vs. Cubs or Brewers) would be on Wednesday.

Enjoy!

--M.C.



*The Brewers are a game back of the Chicago Cubs and could still win the NL Central. If they tie, they play a tiebreaker Monday in Wrigley.

Walk-off Win!

SF 5  SD 4 (12)
Madison Bumgarner's pinch-hit in the 12th wins it for the Giants, driving in Gorkys Hernandez who had tripled. It was a long and painful game but it was a win, and all wins are to be celebrated especially after four losses in a row. Chris Stratton had an inning from hell in the 3rd and was done by the 5th, and Will Smith blew a save in the 9th, but it all worked out. Gregor Blanco had a clutch pinch-hit to give the Giants a late lead, and Hunter Pence hit a homer. The Giants have 11 wins in 18 games against the Padres, but it doesn't seem like it.

Casey Kelley gets the start tomorrow night. Go Giants!

--M.C.

Takin' one for the Team

SD 5  SF 0
That's Bobby Evans, former minor league administrative assistant and now former General Manager. It was quite a ride and it came to an end after twenty-four years. This is the Giants which means they will keep him around--assuming he wants to stay--and find another job for him. But a new GM is on the agenda for Larry Baer and Brian Sabean. Sabes wants to stay upstairs, his late night poker games are a thing of the past. BobbyE was supposed to do that part of the job but it didn't work out. Brian's a family man, and made the mistake of hiring another like himself. The Giants probably need an outsider who will clash with senior management and ownership now and again just to keep the water in the hot tub fresh. We'll see if they can pull it off. I don't expect anything splashy, like luring Kim Ng away from the Commisioner's Office, but some new blood seems likely.

In the meantime the Giants got shut out by the Padres, at home no less. On the bright side that's only the eighth time they've failed to score at least a run this season. They drop to 4-17 for September, a brisk .190 clip.

Chris Stratton tomorrow night.

--M.C.

Giants Score Five Runs!

SF 5  SD 4
And they needed them all. It tool pluck and luck for the Giants to prevail but prevail they did. The Giants scored eight runs in a loss in Colorado on September 3rd and then scored 2, 3, 2, 3, 3, 1, 1, 1, 2, 3, 2 before Monday's four and last night's five. In the two games before that 8-run outburst the Giants scored a run apiece. So it's pretty exciting to see a five-spot on the board. Derek Holland allowed four runs in his five frames but the relief corps held the line. The Padres missed a game-tying homer in the 9th by mere feet but them's the breaks. Hunter Pence blasted a two-run homer--he's likely in his last days in a Giants uniform, as we know, so appreciate him while you can.

If the Giants run the table they'll finish 82-80. If they win 9 of 10 they'll have a .500 season. Hey, why not? As our friend nomisnala pointed out it was pretty long odds they'd LOSE eleven straight! Improbability is not impossibility.

Chris Stratton starts tonight at 6:10 Pacific. GO GIANTS!

--M.C.

A Win in a Lost Season

SF 4  SD 2
The Giants scored four runs tonight and snapped their streak of eleven consecutive games scoring three or fewer. That, and they were officially eliminated. It should not be overlooked that rookie lefty Andrew Suarez pitched a fine game (7-2/3, 4 H, 2 R). Homers by Brandon Crawford and Evan Longoria provided the offense. Rookies Chris Shaw (3 hits), Austin Slater (a superb 9-6 outfield assist), and Aramis Garcia (RBI single) also contributed. At 71-80 the team could win all their remaining games and finish above .500! Even if you think they are a .500 club the probability of winning eleven coin flips is 1/2048 or less than 0.05%. So we won't worry about that.

Derek Holland tomorrow night. GO GIANTS!

--M.C.

Stopper Stratton

SF 2  COL 0
I've always hated the idea of a 'stopper' in baseball, it's such a negative thing. Instead of a guy who helps you win you have a guy that stops you from losing. Terrible. But baseball is as much about losing as it is about winning. Kind of like what one guy--I can't remember who--said about writing, that it was really about managing writer's block. I can relate to that. So tonight we got a guy who stopped the losing, and far from a negative thing it was an enormous positive event. I know "enormous" is hyperbolic, by my goodness an eleven-game losing streak is a string of events that even hyperbole can't encompass.

Chris Stratton breathed life into the gasping near-corpse that is the 2018 Giants with a scintillating shutout of the first-place Colorado Rockies. It was his first MLB complete game and the first by a Giants pitcher this season. The 27-year old from Tupelo allowed only two hits and two walks and kept the Rockies from making solid contact all night long with a dazzling array of curveballs and superb command of the fastball and cutter. Despite leading the club in pitcher-wins (10) it has been a hard slog for the former first-rounder. Only half (12 of 25) of his starts have been of the QS variety (min 6 IP, max 3 RA). Eleven times he's lasted five or fewer frames. Eight of those he's allowed four or more runs. But at the end of August he threw eight scoreless against the D-Backs at home and followed that with a solid effort against the Mets. He got rocked in Milwaukee, but responded with his best-ever effort tonight to play the stopper.

The Giants ended their eleven-game slide, the worst in the sixty-year history of the San Francisco franchise. Like I said, baseball is as much about losing as it is about winning. How you manage your losing streaks--and they will come to all ballclubs--says much about you. Just like how players manage those inevitable slumps. They will happen to every one in uniform, no exceptions. The Giants have played themselves into a gaping organizational cavern, and how they'll find their way out is anyone's guess. But at least we can get excited about a terrific performance by a player that will probably be an important piece of next year's team. For tonight, that's all right. Nice work, Strat. Keep it up!

--M.C.

8th inning: 6-12

1st inning: 7-11
2nd inning: 12-6
3rd inning: 6-12
4th inning: 10-8
5th inning: 11-7
6th inning: 8-10
7th inning: 8-10
8th inning: 6-12

That brings the team to 68-76 (.472), fourth place in the NL West, 11 games off the pace. The Giants are winless (0-8) in the month of September. They had already taken themselves out of the race and now they've fallen off a cliff. Starting tonight there is one seasonal inning--18 games--remaining in 2018: six three game sets; four at home (39-30, .565) and two on the road (29-46, .387). The Braves are in San Francisco this week and the Rockies visit this weekend. The Giants then go to San Diego and St. Louis, and finish the season at home with the Padres and Dodgers. There are three Thursdays left in September, all are off-days. The one tiny flickering hope is that LA will need to win those final three games (Sep 29-30) and the Giants can somehow prevent that. But that's a small consolation in a frustrating and ultimately disappointing season.

The team's 557 runs scored (3.87 rpg) is the 5th-worst in MLB and their 613 runs allowed (4.26 rpg) puts them right in the middle of the pack. One of the few bright spots of the season, rookie right-hander Dereck Rodriguez (1.8 fWAR in 97 IP), gets the ball tonight at 7:15 Pacific.

Go Giants!

--M.C.