In 2018, Madison Bumgarner started the season with a broken hand, suffered at the end of spring training. Madison's record this year is 6 wins against 7 losses. That was after a 2017 that featured his dirt biking accident that kept him sidelined for about half a season. Neither season was notable, except for how poorly the Giants did in 2017, and they will finish as a sub-.500 club in 2018 as well. Their improvement is only notable because it came from such a low baseline. Madison Bumgarner is the ace of our staff, without question. There is more energy when he is on the mound, although he usually (not always, though) is fairly non-emotive as he pitches. Here is a comparison of the last couple of years:
2014 217 IP, 9.07 K/9, 0.87 HR/9, 1.09 WHIP, 21 HR, 8.04 H/9, 3.36 R/9
2015 218 IP, 9.65 K/9, 0.87 HR/9, 1.01 WHIP, 21 HR, 7.46 H/9, 3.01 R/9
2016 226 IP, 9.97 K/9, 1.03 HR/9, 1.02 WHIP, 26 HR, 7.07 H/9, 3.14 R/9
2017 110 IP, 8.19 K/9, 1.38 HR/9, 1.09 WHIP, 17 HR, 8.19 H/9, 3.36 R/9
2018 130 IP, 7.57 K/9, 0.97 HR/9, 1.24 WHIP, 14 HR, 7.46 H/9, 3.54 R/9*
* Innings pitched, Strikeouts per 9 innings, Home Runs per 9, Walks + Hits per Inning Pitched, Home Runs, and Runs per 9.
So, without applying statistical analysis to any of these figures (most of which I have forgotten anyway), I would say that Madison's WHIP and runs/9 innings have gone up a little bit. If his WHIP is up, it has to be because his walks are up, because his hits/9 is actually down from last year, and more consistent with his best years of 2014 - 2016. In fact, the number of walks he issued matches the number in 2014 (43) in nearly 100 fewer innings. In comparison, in 2017, he issued only 20 walks. Why is that? Have right-handed batters learned to lay off those pitches that tail away from the strike zone? Also, in spite of the fact that the number of hits he has given up has fallen to a number consistent with his 2014 - 2016 totals, the runs he has given up has increased. I don't know if the difference is significant, but it is interesting to me to see these numbers all in the 3's. That means you need 4 runs to win, which at least right now, seems a stretch for the Giants. Here is how it breaks out in terms of runs allowed per game:
2014 - 2.45; 2015 - 2.28; 2016 - 2.32; 2017 - 2.41; 2018 - 2.71
I'm just going to say that I think 2.71 is significant. It means more than 5 runs in 2 games whereas in his prior years, he allowed less than 5 runs in 2. That means something on a team that struggles to score any.
John Shea wrote a column the other day that stated that the new GM, whomever he or she may be, could trade Madbum. Of course, that is predicated on the fact that he, unlike Buster Posey or Brandon Crawford, does not have a no-trade clause. It's also a recognition of the potential value to a trade partner. Those clauses can always be broken, though with the player's consent. But he's really not saying anything. The same is true for any player without a no-trade clause and is equally true for Bobby Evans as it is for a new face. Bruce Jenkins, taking a brief pause from his "you kids and your statistics get off my lawn" rants, opines that the Giants should keep Madbum because the rest of the pitchers are too young and inexperienced. Personally, I want to see him stick around. I love hearing his thick drawl on the commercials, and I want him on my team should the Giants get back to playoff baseball. He has more than earned it. And I am not convinced that he can't get back on track, should he be able to remain injury-free. A broken hand seems to be a tough thing to come back from. I don't think his skill set is deteriorating, he's only 29. The way he is built, he has the potential to be pitching when he is 40. That's potentially a lot of valuable left handed starts from someone who has 3 World Series rings and has been instrumental in winning all of them. I'll say this, though. If Madbum is to be traded, it better damn well be for a monster. No middle infielders with "potential", we've got those guys up the ass. Aaron Judge. Ronald Acuna. A real force.
7 comments:
They won't get Aaron Judge or Ronald Acuna, unless those teams are hella stupid. Look at the Gerrit Cole or Justin Verlander trades.
The reason to trade Bum has at least as much to do with avoiding a Zito/Greinke type contract as to do with getting a parcel of prospects. Bum is cheap next year but to keep him around will require another commitment like the Posey deal. Certainly he could do well on the open FA market so the Giants would have a big decision to make. I'd like him to stay for all the obvious reasons that you enumerated. He is still young but I believe he probably needs to make some changes in his off-season regimen and his approach in order to get those walks down and strikeouts back. But there's no reason why he can't still be a stud. Some guys can still perform as they age (look at Verlander, Scherzer, for example) and even get better. Why not Bum?
Wow. Just a complete collapse today after making it a game for most of the afternoon. Finally, after 40+ starts, they score more than four runs off Kershaw and they still get their asses kicked. What a sad end to the season!
Dodgers are just too deep, like I said. They have the talent to play with any team. They may not have the gaudy win totals like last year's team but they seem to me to be just as good.
Yeah, they're too deep. They have 7 guys with at least 20 home runs, not including Machado. Our leader is Longo with 16. Cutch is second with 15.
Giants could force the Dodgers to play a Monday tiebreaker by winning today. It ain't much but it beats getting swept.
Well, I'm guessing that won't happen. The Dodgers are now up 6-0. Giants aren't going to 'force' anything. The Dodgers are controlling their own fate this weekend.
Oy mates! Just got back from the British Isles in time to watch the Giants get humiliated. For the nine days of my travels I thought about the Giants about this... much. A whirlwind tour of Dublin, Edinburgh and London with misc. points in between. Perfect weather. Zero disasters. Adequate beer, with the exception a properly poured pint of Guinness, which was the nectar the gods wish they had, a perfection that resists export. Our guide warned us that if you don't wait for the head to settle there's an entirely different taste. I wondered how he would know as I'm certain he had never attempted that heresy.
Rockies and LA are tied with 90 wins each. If each team wins today, they play a tie-breaker tomorrow. 4th inning as I type this, Giants don't have a hit and trail 9 -0. What a humiliation. They are also at risk of losing the season series, which is at least something. They started these final games with a lead of 9 - 7. But these are the Giants. They got nuttin.
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