In the cold sober light of analysis it seems the Giants made out pretty well at the deadline. Lefty reliever and lefty starter, both young, talented, and cost-controlled, it's easy to say that's a good haul. Sure, they were expensive, but it's a sellers market. The teams out of the race know they have players the pennant-chasers want and they aren't going to give them up without extracting their pound of flesh. I don't worry about pitching prospects. The Madison Bumgarners of the world are rare beasts--projecting a twenty year-old as a future star is tough stuff. Most of them don't make it, and the Giants have had good luck swapping potential talent for proven talent. We all remember Joe Nathan and Francisco Liriano, but that's because they were the exception, not the rule.
In this game you have to have the cojones to pull the trigger. Risk is inherent. I give Bobby Evans and the the Brian Trust a lot of credit for identifying the team's needs and finding the guys they thought could help. They pursued their targets with gusto and made the moves. It would have been a lot less painful if they had stuck with minor-leaguers but that wasn't going to get it done. Change is hard. Always. Everywhere, not just in baseball. But BobbyE & Co. are big boys and they made big boy decisions.
I'm happy for Andrew Susac. He deserves a chance to play and he'll get one in Milwaukee with Jonathan Lucroy's departure. Trevor Brown's work this season really did make Susac expendable. On the other hand, I'm gutted about Matt Duffy. He played with such verve and aplomb last season and had to fill the void left when a very popular and accomplished player (Pablo Sandoval, in case you forgot!) departed for (presumably) greener pastures. Duff-ster was one of the best rookies in the game. He had a rough start this season, and a big injury setback, but I had faith he would return to form. Alas, he'll have to do it in Tampa Bay. But I'm not upset at the Giants, just the situation. You have to give up talent to get talent. Duffy was the odd man out. He'll be missed, but the Giants have ably filled that spot with Eduardo Nunez, clearly planning ahead with that acquisition.
So how about these FNGs? Matt Moore was the costliest, and obviously the centerpiece, and he'll be the key going forward. I suppose this means Jake Peavy will get the bump. He's pitched, overall, better than Matt Cain, but Cain is signed for 2017 and Peavy is not. This is Jake's last go-round, and he'll have to do it in the 'pen. Matty is still expected to be a part of the rotation, and perhaps he's healthy now and can be a positive contributor the rest of the way. At the five-spot that should be do-able. Jeff Samardzija has been disappointing after a great stretch earlier, he'll be bumped down one notch as well. Perhaps the lowered expectations will help him regain his touch. Moore was one of the brightest stars in the game not long ago, but got bit by the injury bug and has yet to produce like that again. But he is healthy now (21 starts so far) and has serious fastball/change-up whiff-inducing stuff. He should be able to deliver quality innings in the three-spot behind Johnny Cueto and MadBum. He's only 27, as is reliever Will Smith. He also has a quality arm and clearly will step into the setup role as he's got good splits. He ain't no LOOGY. This means Javier Lopez can get back to that and Josh Osich can be spared some of the high-leverage situations while he matures as a player.
These moves may not pay off. But they are intelligent moves. They are good gambles. Both pitchers will be around for a few years, neither are "rentals," and Nunez is also signed for 2017. So that mitigates the high cost. These guys are investments--they will be a big part of the pennant chase, not bench pieces or role players.
I think, once the dust clears, we should feel good. The pitching staff needed a boost and they got it. The infield needed help and they got it. We'll miss the guys we grew fond of, and we may read about some young stud in a few years who "once was a promising prospect in San Francisco" but those things won't stick. What will stick is a winning ballclub. The Giants have too much at stake RIGHT NOW not to go for it. The Dodgers went "all-in" with their moves and the Giants had to counter as the race has tightened and looks to be the dogfight we expected when the season opened.
Time for the guys to strap it on and stop the slide and get back to winning ways. Let's hope the FNGs bring it!
--M.C.
Showing posts with label Sabes. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sabes. Show all posts
Monday, August 1, 2016
Thursday, July 14, 2016
5th inning: 12-6
The Giants have played 90 games (five 18-game innings) and have 72 games remaining. They
have completed 5/9 (about 56%) of their season. Here's the tally so
far:
1st inning: 8-10
2nd inning: 10-8
3rd inning: 15-3
4th inning: 12-6
5th inning: 12-6
That's a 57-33 record (.633), the best in baseball. They opened the season playing .500 ball (18-18) but since then they've played at a .722 clip (39-15). Pretty impressive, wouldn't you say?
A look at the numbers shows the Giants are 12th out of 30 teams with a run-scoring rate of 4.71 per game (league average is 4.51). Breaking down the team slash line their batting average (.263) is 11th-best, their OBP (.336) is 4th-best and their slugging percentage (.406) is 21st. Their wOBA (.320) is 15th, smack dab in the middle, but their wRC+ (104) is 7th-best. The Giants are good at bases on balls (4th-best) and very hard to strike out (3rd-fewest). This is not surprising, we see that every day. They don't hit many homers (only the Braves are worse) but they are 9th in doubles and 2nd in triples.
On the pitching side they are allowing 3.90 runs per game, behind only the Nationals, Mets, Dodgers, and Cubs. The league average is 4.51 so the Giants have the run-prevention thing down pretty well despite the shaky bullpen. In team FIP (3.69) they trail only the Dodgers, Nationals, and Mets. They are middle-of-the-pack in strikeouts but excellent (3rd-fewest) in both walks and homers. Only eight teams have given up fewer hits.
Team position-player fWAR (19.4, includes fielding) is 3rd-best and team pitching fWAR (10.1) is 9th-best. One metric from B-R (Defensive Efficiency) gives the team a .700 mark, 6th-best. We know this is a good-glove team, and that synergy with the leather behind the pitchers makes a big impact. On the whole, it seems the Giants are a little better than the sum of their parts. They do a lot of things well and have good leadership, not to mention some championship DNA.
Individually it is hard to miss the 1-2 punch of Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto. The team is 29-8 when they start. Those two are doing everything right and leading the club with consistently dominant pitching. Jeff Samardzija has had his ups and downs but overall is a fine number three and the recent rebound from Jake Peavy has been a big lift as well. Albert Suarez has done a solid job filling in for Matt Cain but I think we all want to see the big righty return ASAP to bolster the ro' for the second half run.
Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, and Brandon Crawford have been the big performers with the bat and all three have been excellent defensively, with BCraw dazzling nightly with his impossible plays. That guy is under-rated at 4.2 fWAR (7th-best in baseball)! The super-subs (Green, Peña, and Parker in particular) have filled in remarkably well and there have been contributions up and down the roster. It will be nice to get our fabulous infield back together (Panik probably sooner than Duffy) but the organization has been well-served by the backups.
The weak link has been the bullpen but when the team has the most wins and fewest losses it is hard to get too worried. I believe the return of Sergio Romo will help settle the roles and we will see more consistency. George Kontos may be a key guy here. I've said it many times before I think we will see a new arm or two (a lefty, probably) for the stretch run, but no one famous or expensive. Think about how valuable Cory Gearrin has been--he's a scrap-heap reclamation. The Giants won't get Andrew Miller but they will find a diamond-in-the-rough who can help. Despite some hiccups both Santiago Casilla and Hunter Strickland have been solid and will get the pressure outs in the big games to come.
Imagine this team taking a dump and playing .500 ball (36-36) the rest of the way. That's 93 wins! I don't think that will happen: 40 more wins (.556) means 97 total, which should mean a West Division title and first or second seed in the playoffs. With Pence coming back and perhaps an uptick in performance from both Span and Blanco (Pagan has been looking much better, don't you think?) it's easy to feel confident. Of course disaster could strike. The baseball gods could mock us and torture us and humble us. This we know, and have experienced. But this is a good team. They won't keep up the .700 thing, but they don't have to. Keep grinding, avoid the big losing streaks, make LA feel the heat--this they can do.
One thing we can count on as fans is a top-notch front office. You can bet they will plug any holes they see in the next month or so. I'm happy with the status quo but August is the cruellest month (sorry TSE, April ain't nuthin') and the team won't be able to ride two starters and three hitters the rest of the way. The remainder of the rotation will need to be steady performers, the other guys in the lineup will have to pull their collective weight, and the hurt guys will have to get healthy. But the team is in a great position for the second half and ought to be able to turn that into a post-season berth.
GO GIANTS!
--M.C.
1st inning: 8-10
2nd inning: 10-8
3rd inning: 15-3
4th inning: 12-6
5th inning: 12-6
That's a 57-33 record (.633), the best in baseball. They opened the season playing .500 ball (18-18) but since then they've played at a .722 clip (39-15). Pretty impressive, wouldn't you say?
A look at the numbers shows the Giants are 12th out of 30 teams with a run-scoring rate of 4.71 per game (league average is 4.51). Breaking down the team slash line their batting average (.263) is 11th-best, their OBP (.336) is 4th-best and their slugging percentage (.406) is 21st. Their wOBA (.320) is 15th, smack dab in the middle, but their wRC+ (104) is 7th-best. The Giants are good at bases on balls (4th-best) and very hard to strike out (3rd-fewest). This is not surprising, we see that every day. They don't hit many homers (only the Braves are worse) but they are 9th in doubles and 2nd in triples.
On the pitching side they are allowing 3.90 runs per game, behind only the Nationals, Mets, Dodgers, and Cubs. The league average is 4.51 so the Giants have the run-prevention thing down pretty well despite the shaky bullpen. In team FIP (3.69) they trail only the Dodgers, Nationals, and Mets. They are middle-of-the-pack in strikeouts but excellent (3rd-fewest) in both walks and homers. Only eight teams have given up fewer hits.
Team position-player fWAR (19.4, includes fielding) is 3rd-best and team pitching fWAR (10.1) is 9th-best. One metric from B-R (Defensive Efficiency) gives the team a .700 mark, 6th-best. We know this is a good-glove team, and that synergy with the leather behind the pitchers makes a big impact. On the whole, it seems the Giants are a little better than the sum of their parts. They do a lot of things well and have good leadership, not to mention some championship DNA.
Individually it is hard to miss the 1-2 punch of Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto. The team is 29-8 when they start. Those two are doing everything right and leading the club with consistently dominant pitching. Jeff Samardzija has had his ups and downs but overall is a fine number three and the recent rebound from Jake Peavy has been a big lift as well. Albert Suarez has done a solid job filling in for Matt Cain but I think we all want to see the big righty return ASAP to bolster the ro' for the second half run.
Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, and Brandon Crawford have been the big performers with the bat and all three have been excellent defensively, with BCraw dazzling nightly with his impossible plays. That guy is under-rated at 4.2 fWAR (7th-best in baseball)! The super-subs (Green, Peña, and Parker in particular) have filled in remarkably well and there have been contributions up and down the roster. It will be nice to get our fabulous infield back together (Panik probably sooner than Duffy) but the organization has been well-served by the backups.
The weak link has been the bullpen but when the team has the most wins and fewest losses it is hard to get too worried. I believe the return of Sergio Romo will help settle the roles and we will see more consistency. George Kontos may be a key guy here. I've said it many times before I think we will see a new arm or two (a lefty, probably) for the stretch run, but no one famous or expensive. Think about how valuable Cory Gearrin has been--he's a scrap-heap reclamation. The Giants won't get Andrew Miller but they will find a diamond-in-the-rough who can help. Despite some hiccups both Santiago Casilla and Hunter Strickland have been solid and will get the pressure outs in the big games to come.
Imagine this team taking a dump and playing .500 ball (36-36) the rest of the way. That's 93 wins! I don't think that will happen: 40 more wins (.556) means 97 total, which should mean a West Division title and first or second seed in the playoffs. With Pence coming back and perhaps an uptick in performance from both Span and Blanco (Pagan has been looking much better, don't you think?) it's easy to feel confident. Of course disaster could strike. The baseball gods could mock us and torture us and humble us. This we know, and have experienced. But this is a good team. They won't keep up the .700 thing, but they don't have to. Keep grinding, avoid the big losing streaks, make LA feel the heat--this they can do.
One thing we can count on as fans is a top-notch front office. You can bet they will plug any holes they see in the next month or so. I'm happy with the status quo but August is the cruellest month (sorry TSE, April ain't nuthin') and the team won't be able to ride two starters and three hitters the rest of the way. The remainder of the rotation will need to be steady performers, the other guys in the lineup will have to pull their collective weight, and the hurt guys will have to get healthy. But the team is in a great position for the second half and ought to be able to turn that into a post-season berth.
GO GIANTS!
--M.C.
Friday, April 3, 2015
Giants have a new GM
Brian Sabean was the longest-serving GM in baseball and that streak has come to an end. He's been promoted! Underling Bobby Evans is now the titular General Manager. Both Boch and Sabes were extended through 2019. Only Buster Posey is signed with the Giants past that point.
I won't bore you with analysis or presume to understand the inner workings of the front office. Suffice to say things have been working well and let's hope this new scheme is just more of the same. Congratulations to Bobby Evans, to be sure. He's been more and more visible these last several seasons and it is obvious the organization thinks highly of him. Sabes gets some fancy new title and presumably an office with a better view or a bigger desk or maybe a personalized parking spot. Boch gets to still be Boch. Let's hope he got a raise.
GO GIANTS!
--M.C.
p.s. In case you missed it in the comments on the previous post, I have an extra ticket for the Home Opener (Monday the 13th v. COL @ 1:35 pm). I have seven people in my party and a block of eight seats. We will be in View Box 321 Row A, right on the edge of the upper deck. It was a StubHub purchase so the seat will set you back a stack o'clams ($236.33 to be exact). If any of you RMCers out there want to go or have a friend in need contact me ASAP (mcoc13@gmail.com).
I won't bore you with analysis or presume to understand the inner workings of the front office. Suffice to say things have been working well and let's hope this new scheme is just more of the same. Congratulations to Bobby Evans, to be sure. He's been more and more visible these last several seasons and it is obvious the organization thinks highly of him. Sabes gets some fancy new title and presumably an office with a better view or a bigger desk or maybe a personalized parking spot. Boch gets to still be Boch. Let's hope he got a raise.
GO GIANTS!
--M.C.
p.s. In case you missed it in the comments on the previous post, I have an extra ticket for the Home Opener (Monday the 13th v. COL @ 1:35 pm). I have seven people in my party and a block of eight seats. We will be in View Box 321 Row A, right on the edge of the upper deck. It was a StubHub purchase so the seat will set you back a stack o'clams ($236.33 to be exact). If any of you RMCers out there want to go or have a friend in need contact me ASAP (mcoc13@gmail.com).
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