Thursday, August 19, 2010


Jonathan Sanchez is a remarkable character. He can be maddening with his wildness, walks, HBPs and the like. How often have you thought "typical lefty space cadet" when watching him? He seems to have his own Sanchez Channel that he's tuned to, and often appears clueless about game situations and events. His latest verbal assault on the front-running Padres was such an odd outburst because it was the last thing any of us would expect from him. Last year he threw a no-hitter after he was threatened with demotion! We all know he has real-deal swing-through stuff, and we've seen him mow people down with an efficiency that even Tim Lincecum can't match. He comes up with these remarkable performances that get us all scratching our heads and thinking "did I really say we should trade this guy?" It's a wild, wild ride with the former Ohio Dominican Panther, isn't it?

Here's something to chew on after tonight's brilliant outing by the mercurial southpaw: his average Game Score is 55. Last year it was 52. The year before it was 49. He's been a starter since 2008 when he logged 158 IP with an 88 ERA+. The next year he improved to 103 and this year he's posting a 118 ERA+ and will likely reach a career high in innings (he has 145-1/3 now, he only needs 18 to match last year). This guy is getting better every year. He's a real gem, and we tend to forget that. By the way, Barry Zito has an average Game Score of 54 for 2010, and Matt Cain 57. Tim Lincecum, after last year's extraordinary 64, is tied with our Stopper for Tonight at 55. (Madison Bumgarner brings up the rear with 53.)***

Two of the lads who really needed to contribute--Pablo Sandoval and Freddy Sanchez--both had fine games. Buster Posey was god-like in his ho-hum god-like way. What a joy to watch this guy! I hope we keep him around forever. It was a huge, huge, huge win. A necessary win. Someone had to step up and be Da Man for this ballclub and tonight Sanchez and Posey delivered. And another thing: as annoying as the 9th inning was, the hit by Sweeney changed the Phils' win expectancy from 0.5% to 1.8%.

Finally, I have to give a shout-out to my hecklers and fellow bloggers--I had nothing in me after last night's deflating loss and yet you guys stirred up some lively post-game chatter. T'anks, mates.


***I should not discuss averages without also discussing their standard deviations. I really shouldn't. But the bright fellow over at Triples Alley already did that, so check it out. He nicely debunks the notion that Jonathan Sanchez is inconsistent, which is of course inconsistent with our view of him. Don't you just love baseball?


JC Parsons said...

Spectacular win! God was the first thing out of my mouth when I saw what Buster did.

"as annoying as the 9th inning was, the hit by Sweeney changed the Phils' win expectancy from 0.5% to 1.8%."
And that explains why Sanchez is denied a chance for a CG shutout two pitches later? With a five run lead! Afer 100 pitches? To improve from less than 1 to less than 2? Was he that paranoid or was he just desperate to use Romo/Wilson?
I'd be kinda pissed if I was Sanchez. Somebody tell me what I don't know.
Small detail about a HUGE win, though.

Anonymous said...

We did? Oh I think I figured out why we've been playing shetty lately. It was my cap the whole time. I was wondering what seemed different in the losses, it was that I haven't worn my cap lately. I put it on today, and I even said to my Mom, "the Giants are gonna win today--unless I just jinxed it." I had a feeling J would pitch good today. After two meh starts, he was bound to have his day, and what a game. Only 2 walks and 2 hits. Sure, that Rowand catch may have been a hit, but, whatever, he pitched great. I like the idea of Eli catching for Sanchez. Gives Buster a day off from the plate and he really does much better with Whiteside catching him.

Today's lineup looked pretty bad, but, that doesn't matter when the pitchers are pitching, the fielders are fielding, the Buster is blessing, the Panda is performing (martial arts that is). Besides, they managed 5 runs with 3 automatic outs.

My day was taking a turn for the shitter, but, the game cheered me up.

[Also, the Baseball Gods have something against Pablo, at least the HR cleared up some of that GIDP blehness.]

M.C. O'Connor said...

Bochy wanted to use both Romo and Wilson, apparently.

I was surprised that he removed Sanchez in the middle of an at-bat! I could see yanking him after a hit and a walk, but it seemed a little knee-jerk, esp. when it was pitch 100. My point about win expectancy was not in defense of Bochy, just that the Phillies last-gasp effort was indeed a last gasp, no matter how terrifying it seemed to win-starved Giants fans.

Ron said...

Big win! More of the same, please. Buster Posey IS the future! Far-and-above better than any hitter we've come up with on our own since Will Clark. 1986 until 2000 - that is quite a drought. Well, now we are set for awhile with him.

On another note, if you want a great laugh, my other must-read each morning (other than RMC, I mean), is the hysterical soccer 'Rumour Mill' in the Guardian. It is a collection of rumors about player transactions gleaned mostly from trashy publications, but with the Guardian writer's commentary interspersed throughout. Here is yesterday's version - one of the all-time best:

Zo said...

Thank god someone out there understands what a "deviation" is. I'm not sure that a standard deviation of a game score is a sufficient measure of consistency, but it is certainly better than nothing. I am so tired of people using some stat (and I guess I would have to see some of the thinking behind the game score to fully buy into it) as a predictor of a short-term event. That said, (about as weak a segue as you'll find anywhere) you could have knocked me over with a feather when I dialed up the interthing and found that we were up five to zip and had knocked Hamels out of the game. I guess the "need" to use Romo and Wilson was the reason for their removal. I was not only wondering why Sanchez couldn't finish it off, I was wondering why Romo also couldn't be left in - his pitching was not that bad, 2 runs scored notwithstanding. Amazing how we have slipped from 1.5 games out to 6 in what seems like about 36 hours. As optimistic as Godis24, I expected to be 7.

Brother Bob said...

JSanchez is the Ace! I read some statistical crapola recently about how he was in fact the most consistent Giants starter. Just a reminder of how stats can be bullshit. I know what my eyes tell me. Sometimes he sucks big time and sometimes he's brilliant. Mark hit the nail on the head.
It's good Huff got a night off.

Anonymous said...

Consistent does not mean good so to speak, it just means, you know what you're gonna get (usually) from J. I always expect some walks, more strikeouts, high pitch counts, and him leaving around the 6th inning. It makes sense to me.