The Giants decided that Kevin Pillar was not worth approximately ten million dollars to play for them next season. The fact the he was a popular, entertaining, and even valuable player made no difference in the end. Value, of course, depends on the beholder. I thought the "butts in the seats" argument would knock the Villar-meter over to "sign" but I remain once again useless at prognostication. That doesn't mean Pillar won't be on the Giants, it just means he will be free to find a home somewhere else. You never know, sometimes guys come back on a lower per-year deal for their own reasons. Or the market for their skills never develops. Baseball is not a "free market" in the Econ 101 sense, it is too small and too constricted and subject to too many random inputs. But a guy like Pillar, a good ballplayer despite some scary on-base numbers (.287! overall), does not have the "value" in today's market that perhaps he should. But that's as much on the players and the skewed free agency rules that the MLBPA have gone along with; and as I like to say "it is what it is" when faced with such messes. Pillar should have a job on a major-league club, but the market right now is not ready to pay him ten million bucks.
The Giants are willing to pay Alex Dickerson ($925K) and southpaw Wandy Peralta ($805K) but not recently-claimed Tyler Anderson ($2.6M) and Rico Garcia (pre-arb), or late-season pick-up Joey Rickard ($1.1M). Donovan Solano was also offered a contract, but I can't seem to find the details. Like Pillar, he is on the wrong side of 30, but costs a lot less. And he hit better--whether he can do that next season is anyone's guess, but .330/.360/.456 is better than .264/.298/.442 (just with the Giants). To be fair, Solano was a half-timer (81 G to Pillar's 156 G), but he probably should be. Pillar would be a great player if he hit 8th, but on the 2019 Giants he hit mostly 5th, 6th, and 7th, which in my view is too high in the lineup. He would be an excellent part-time/platoon player or late-inning defensive replacement and pinch-hitter.
The Giants have plenty of money and could certainly afford Pillar, but FZ claimed the move had nothing to do with finances. If that's true, it means they don't see Pillar as part of the future. They are indeed rebuilding, even if they won't say it out loud. Pillar would be a great piece on a good club that's ready to contend. That tells you something right there. And I'm OK with it. This Giants team needs a makeover. It needs an infusion of talent. Pillar was the right guy at the right time, but they need a lot more than that going forward.
--M.C.
26 comments:
I think there is value for a guy who goes all out, dives for ball, plays at 100 percent all the time, and gives you everyday play. The beauty of that is that it at least guarantees one up the middle excellent fielder. By the way, what is Posey being payed, and how much is his offense worth? How much is Posey's defense worth? How much is Pillar's defense and ability to play every day worth? I was looking at some giant sites on the web, and I am quite surprised at the overwhelming disappointment in this move. As you say, perhaps he will still be a giant. But, it is much less likely. If the giants can field a competitive team that can get to the playoffs, with greater probability in 2020 without Pillar than let it be so. But if they cannot, why not have your most entertaining player out there, exciting your fan base? I am a giant supporter no matter, what, but I will say this, watching Pillar last year, was one of the most enjoyable things about watching the giants. Best of luck to Pillar whether he stays with the giants, or goes elsewhere.
Pillar was certainly very watchable last year on a team that was mostly un-watchable! He just has the wrong combination of skills. If he was league-average at getting on base it might be different. His fielding doesn't get the love from the defensive metrics despite the highlight-reel stuff, and the Giants still have Duggar if they are looking for a glove-first CF. Let's hope they spend the $10M saving wisely!
Solano gets $1.375M according to MLBTR.
Ken Rosenthal (from The Athletic) nails it:
Clubs are using the system to their advantage, knowing that by flooding the market they can get better deals than they would in arbitration. Top free agents effectively are on islands, no longer dragging the rest of the salaries upward. The solution for the players is to negotiate a new economic system, something they will attempt to do in the next round of collective bargaining.
Astros are looking to fill a data scientist position. Brush up on your Bayesian analysis and you are ML-ready!
A suggested edit: "Pillar should have a job on a major-league club, but the the Giants right now is not ready to pay him ten million bucks."
Maybe no one is, I suspect your view of the market vs his data set is right on. Sad to say that the Giants are not apparently interested in resigning their co-home run, rbi, stolen base and at-bats leader.
If Pillar is your team offense leader then you need a new offense.
Not trying to be snarky, just looking at the facts (sub-.300 OBP, near the bottom of all league starters). Pillar is a good ballplayer and did an outstanding job in a role not suited to him, and earned accolades for it. But at best he would be here one more season. He's not a long-term investment. The team says they want to prioritize player development--which I agree with--and that means decisions like this one are easy from a baseball point of view.
It sucks from a fan view, for sure.
5 years for Zack Wheeler, ~$120M (Philly). Just think what Gerrit Cole will get.
Giants did not tender a contract to LHP Tyler Anderson after they picked him up off waivers. But then they signed him to a one-year deal for 2020! I can't find the amount, but presumably less than he would have got in arbitration.
So that's how it works. Say 'no' but mean 'yes'--Negotiation 101.
Good, I was hoping they'd hold on to him.
$1.775M base salary plus incentives for Anderson.
Schulman tries to make the case in the Chronicle today that non-tendering Kevin Pillar means the Giants will not make a serious effort to re-sign Madison Bumgarner. I think it's a case of reading tea leaves where none are there. I think it's a weak case to compare the two ballplayers, although that might be my personal bias showing though. Both ballplayers are 30 yr old, but a good part of Pillar's success depends on his speed and defensive ability, both on the decline. Notice some of the star pitchers in this year's world series? Verlander and Scherzer? There is no reason that Madison Bumgarner can't be a good pitcher when he is 40 years old, especially with the way he is built. Of course, Schulman may be right, the Giants may just want to cut any ties that they can with the past and build from the ground up. But if Wheeler can get $118mm for 5 years, that is not that much more than Madbum's QO of $19 million. Are those guys comparable? My guess is that Madison will top that, but fall short of the Strasburg/Cole strata. The Giants may want to make a competitive offer for Madbum for maybe 4 or 5 years so that he will be around to help them get decent again. Convincing Madbum that the Giants are interested in winning is another matter.
If Wheeler gets almost $120M and 5 years then you have to figure that's what Bumgarner will cost. I'd say they are comparable pitchers, although you could argue Wheeler has more upside. Someone will be willing to pay $20M+ per year for Bum.
And I agree about the tea leaves--a decision on one player's situation does not have to tell us anything about another player's situation. But you have to fill those column inches!
FZ on Bum (from The Athletic):
“(Bumgarner) is a free agent and we’re in communication there. And he’s going to vet all of his options. Being a free agent is something guys aspire to. It’s nice to be at a point in your career where you’re getting courted and can look around at your options.”
Courted? Are the Giants among those doing the courting?
“We are in communication with his representatives,’’ Zaidi said, deadpan again.
Bumgarner, a four-time All-Star, is expected to command a mega-contract of at least $100 million. He grew up and lives in rural North Carolina and geography might be a factor in his decision.
“Obviously, he has roots in other parts of the country that may be attractive to him,’’ Zaidi said. “It’s his decision. That’s the beauty of free agency for players. But we are going to be involved in that process.”
I agree that Pillar was not a long term investment, but the giants had control of his contract for one more year with arbitration. Odds are if all the naysayers are correct he would have gotten 8 million because his OBP is 293, and his defensive metrics do not really show how good he is in the field in real time. His low medium hit ball speed, also is a bit of a misnomer as he only K's 89 times, and a swing and a miss on strike 3 does not count as a ball speed of zero. Also he can hit a 55 mph grounder to short and beat it out, while Posey can hit a 105 mph grounder to short and be thrown out by 25 feet at first on a double play. I do not think of Pillar as a long term solution, but if we are transitioning, I saw him as glue during a transition period in 2020. A guy who probably could go out there and give the team a decent player for 150 plus games if needed. Perhaps the giants will still sign him for less. Perhaps we will get someone much better. But until that happens, the move seems questionable. Maybe not sybermetrically, but it seems questionable to the eye test of a large number of fans who go to the games and watch on TV.
I like to think that some player in the Giants system right now will be given the opportunity to be the next Pillar. To be a "glue" type guy, as you say. That's how I see this move--it frees up a roster spot and thus creates a path for another player to get his chance.
And if the Giants think they can get a better player via trade or free agency or whatnot then this is an opening for that kind of move, too.
I'm not married to ANY player on this current Giants squad. If they think they can move a guy or let a guy go and take a chance on another guy instead, I say go for it. This is a ballclub in need of fresh blood! (And I hope that's not a knock on Pillar, who is fine ballplayer.) But the 2019 Giants weren't much. Neither were the '18s or the '17s. They have a lot of ground to make up if they want to compete for the NL West title.
I guess I'm emotionally ready for the painful changes that are coming--I'm not having any fan feelings or nostalgia or any of that. I don't feel like it is a cold-blooded thing, just a recognition that the rebuild has to start sooner rather than later, and I want to go along for the ride.
If he signs Pillar on the cheap or gets someone better, many of the fans will ease off their criticisms. Just like there is a lot to say about a pitcher who can throw over 200 innings, there is a lot to say about a player who can play 156 games. I do worry a little bit about Duggar and Dickerson being injury prone. I also would like to see some semblance of a workable rotation that will not tax out the bullpen by midseason. Guys with mid 3's ERA's who can go deep into games, have value. It is probably way to early to criticize the giant brass plans as they have not revealed themselves, but I think it is okay for the fans to be upset, in losing a very entertaining, all out, give it 100 percent all the time, player. On the other hand, were the giants really that bad that they need a complete rebuild? They were essentially a Jekyll and Hyde team. The were one of the better teams on the road, despite all their flaws. Bad teams do not have winning road records. They were the worst hitting team at home. Okay, one can argue that good teams do not hit so poorly at home. Seems as if something needed to be tweaked there, but the solution so far being offered by the press is the need for a complete rebuild. I am not sure that they cannot field a competitive team in 2020 without spending a ridiculous amount of money, and without ruining their farm system and long term rebuild. Rich teams do not have to hit the bottom of the barrel to rebuild, and the giants should not do so. I had season tickets to the Marlins from the start for the first 6 years, although I am a lifelong die hard Giant. During those years, the Marlins were building their fan base and averaged between 23 and 27 thousand paying fans per game. When they suddenly became good, and were looking at the playoffs, the bandwagon folks came on board, and their attendance for the last month to six weeks went up about 10 to 20 thousand more per game. The playoffs and WS became total sellouts, as they opened up seats that were not available during the season. But then, Wayne Huzienga, did not allow his team to compete. He sold them off. The fan base scattered. They were not sure about where they wanted to spend their sports dollars in South Florida. But then Henry bought the team, and put together another World Series winning team. They recouped some of their fans, but they were cautious. Then the fish once again broke up their winning team, and the rest is history. There attendance has been horrid. In the last few years the did not re-sign Ozuna, Yelich. or Stanton. I love to go to the games when the giants play the fish in Miami because there are as many giants fan at the game as Marlin fans. The giants have a large time honored fan base, but as we all know, even in SF, attendance can dwindle if a good product is not consistently brought forward. Players can deteriorate rapidly like Lincecum, and that is part of the game. Hopefully Posey will make a comeback, or else it will be sad to see an MVP player be used mostly for his defense. As an aside, Henry, who claimed that the fish did not have that much money, turned around and bought the Red Sox for a record amount. It is moves like that which make fans a bit skeptical about teams being cheap. The giants have not been cheap, and hopefully that will continue. I like it when the crowds are consistently at sellout levels. I like it as a fan. It usually means the team is good, and fans like to see a competitive team. Does not mean they have to win the world series. Just means that games are meaningful, and we have been told for a long time, that MLB is all about winning.
214-272 (.440) in the last three seasons. They are a rebuilding club in my view. That's why they brought in FZ, to "re-boot" the system.
Giants fans are the same as fans everywhere--they like a winning team. There a lots of ways to put a winner on the field. I suppose I'm willing to be patient and give the new leadership a fair shot to put their plan into place.
Donnie Ecker is the new hitting coach.
Padres traded for Rays OF Tommy Pham. Part of the reason the Rays cut ties with Pham was his expected raise in arbitration (from $4M to $8M). Pham is a more productive player than Pillar (119 OPS+ and 3.7 WAR last year, career 14.6 WAR) and the same age. But a playoff team was not willing to pay him $8M!! That tells you something about the kind of "market" that exists for aging OFs, even if they are good players.
According to Baggarly there was zero trade interest in Pillar, presumably because every team figured he'd be non-tendered.
Clearly Tampa is not the same financial juggernaut that the giants are. Tampa has found a way to be as competitive as possible, with as low a budget as possible. Let's check out their attendance vs. ours. And to think the giants almost moved to Tampa. One bay area to another. I don't think the giants need to be as cheap as the Rays, maybe we can still sign a player better than Pillar for a knapsack and a cup of desalinized water.
Makes me think FZ was telling the truth when he said it was not a financial decision with Pillar. Clearly the Giants have money to spend, they just weren't going to spend it on him, at least not at $10M.
Maybe they will still spend on Pillar, but a lot less. I doubt he would have won his arbitration and he likely would have gotten closer to 8 million, but if that is too much, he may end up getting a lot less. This is mostly because he cannot take a walk. Which probably means Belt should be quite valuable, because at least he knows how to take a walk. Despite the fact that Belt does not swing at as many bad pitches as Pillar, Belt strikes out more than Pillar. I hope that he can flatten out his swing a bit, and lay off the high fastball, or at least drive the high fastballs that are in the zone. The big home run hitters can have the uppercuts and launch angles as they can hit 35 or more home runs. But in the majors, Belt has never been able to hit anywhere near elite numbers of home runs and he would be more valuable as a gap hitter, who can hit for a higher average, get plenty of extra base hits, and probably his home run total would not suffer much.
Belt is more hurt by his home park, I suspect, than any hitter in baseball. He has over 2000 PAs both on the road and at home and has hit 82 HR away from home and 47 in SF. He has 25 triples at home and 7 on the road, and almost the same number of doubles (119-112 home-road). Our park turns his homers into triples or outs.
Alex Pavlovic at NBC reports another coaching hire for the Giants:
The Giants have gone young and are working to bring in former Dodgers minor league hitting coach Justin Viele as one of their major league hitting coaches, multiple sources told NBC Sports Bay Area. Viele, 29, is expected to work with 33-year-old Donnie Ecker. While it's unclear what the hierarchy would be, the Giants have internally discussed the possibility of getting rid of traditional roles, and it's possible Ecker and Viele will work as a team instead of having one hitting coach and one assistant hitting coach.
Belt has also been hurt by the shift. He does have the ability to hit to all fields, and being his homerun totals at home are anemic, he should consider going to all fields, all the time instead of waiting for that one pitch to pull and go deep, because it rarely happens. Maybe at just the right time, but otherwise he is more valuable as on on base guy, even if he cannot run.
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