It's Over

SD 5  SF 4

The Giants were done after that bone-crushing loss in the final inning on Friday night. Yesterday they showed some spunk but not enough to challenge for a win, and today they fought back gamely but could not conjure up the victory they needed. They had some fine individual efforts over the last two days, but they did not have the team-wide x-factor they needed to finish strong, especially against a much more talented club. I had one goal for this team: improve. But, I had a yardstick: play .500 ball. They didn't measure up, but they certainly improved. I think FZ, Kap, and the players deserve a lot of credit for exceeding expectations and playing meaningful games until the bitter end.

And it was a bitter end. On Wednesday the Giants found themselves in an unexpected place: in charge of their post-season destiny. I didn't write much about the team's post-season chances because even at their highest point I considered them slim, and I viewed a seeding in the tournament as a bonus, not a goal. Alas, they really were close--they really did have a strong chance. In fact, all the other teams helped them out today--a win would have assured them a playoff spot! But that loss on Thursday set them back. Despite a great effort in the double-header on Friday they came out with another brutal defeat, a real shoulda-coulda-woulda kinda game. As I said at the top, I think that finished them.

The Giants had to play 26 games against three of the best teams in baseball this year, the A's, the Dodgers, and the Padres. They were 7-19 against them, a .269 percentage! They were 22-12 (.647) against the rest of their opponents and finish 29-31 or a .483 mark. That's better than 2019 (.475), 2018 (.451), and 2017 (.395) Those were full 162-game campaigns so I know it's not an entirely fair comparison, but I'm looking for improvement.

If you want to be a good team, you have to play better against other good teams, and that's an obvious goal for next year. But we'll talk about next season later. This season was weird, of course, but I'm really happy we got to have a season at all. Sports without fans in the stands is bizarre, but I'll enjoy the post-season even if I won't follow it too closely. I'll certainly watch the World Series.

I suspect lots of things will be different about baseball going forward. I suspect we'll have lots to talk about in the coming months. As always,

GO GIANTS!

--M.C.

Winter Meetings Begin

Seven years and $245M for Stephen Strasburg to stay in DC. What will it cost to keep Madison Bumgarner in San Francisco? More now, I suspect. Starting pitching is always a premium product--you want some, it'll cost ya. But that matters not. The Giants have oodles of money and can spend it if they want. We don't know what they want, that's the problem.

I saw a tweet from AmyG that says the Giants will sign a starter this week. And, they are meeting with MadBum's reps this week. I have to assume the Giants want to improve their starting pitching.

She also tweets that Aramis Garcia is slotted for Buster's backup spot now that Stephen Vogt has left (he's on the D-Backs). This is a good opportunity for Garcia and I hope he makes the most of it. The big talk is about 'player development' which I assume is industry buzz for 'teaching' but at the major-league level. That stuff mostly used to happen in the minors, but things have changed. There is more emphasis on teaching at the top level and of course there is much more information available. I hope that means more young players will get chances in 2020 and that they will get the coaching they need to be their best. I don't know how that stuff works, I just hope it does work.

M.C.

Non-tendered

The Giants decided that Kevin Pillar was not worth approximately ten million dollars to play for them next season. The fact the he was a popular, entertaining, and even valuable player made no difference in the end. Value, of course, depends on the beholder. I thought the "butts in the seats" argument would knock the Villar-meter over to "sign" but I remain once again useless at prognostication. That doesn't mean Pillar won't be on the Giants, it just means he will be free to find a home somewhere else. You never know, sometimes guys come back on a lower per-year deal for their own reasons. Or the market for their skills never develops. Baseball is not a "free market" in the Econ 101 sense, it is too small and too constricted and subject to too many random inputs. But a guy like Pillar, a good ballplayer despite some scary on-base numbers (.287! overall), does not have the "value" in today's market that perhaps he should. But that's as much on the players and the skewed free agency rules that the MLBPA have gone along with; and as I like to say "it is what it is" when faced with such messes. Pillar should have a job on a major-league club, but the market right now is not ready to pay him ten million bucks.

The Giants are willing to pay Alex Dickerson ($925K) and southpaw Wandy Peralta ($805K) but not recently-claimed Tyler Anderson ($2.6M) and Rico Garcia (pre-arb), or late-season pick-up Joey Rickard ($1.1M). Donovan Solano was also offered a contract, but I can't seem to find the details. Like Pillar, he is on the wrong side of 30, but costs a lot less. And he hit better--whether he can do that next season is anyone's guess, but .330/.360/.456 is better than .264/.298/.442 (just with the Giants). To be fair, Solano was a half-timer (81 G to Pillar's 156 G), but he probably should be. Pillar would be a great player if he hit 8th, but on the 2019 Giants he hit mostly 5th, 6th, and 7th, which in my view is too high in the lineup. He would be an excellent part-time/platoon player or late-inning defensive replacement and pinch-hitter.

The Giants have plenty of money and could certainly afford Pillar, but FZ claimed the move had nothing to do with finances. If that's true, it means they don't see Pillar as part of the future. They are indeed rebuilding, even if they won't say it out loud. Pillar would be a great piece on a good club that's ready to contend. That tells you something right there. And I'm OK with it. This Giants team needs a makeover. It needs an infusion of talent. Pillar was the right guy at the right time, but they need a lot more than that going forward.

--M.C.

The New Manager

Don't forget, the Giants are hiring a GM as well. That presents a chicken-and-egg problem, as FZ put it recently (from Andrew Baggarly on The Athletic):

Ordinarily, the general manager would be working hand in glove with the president of baseball operations in a managerial search. The GM is the primary quartermaster for day-to-day roster needs, so it’s imperative that they have a close and communicative relationship with the skipper.

Except the Giants are hiring a GM, too.

“You want to know how the GM is going to work with the manager, but you also want to know how the manager is going to work with the GM,” Zaidi said. "So it’s a little bit of a chicken and egg. But, you know, we will very much have that in mind that those two are going to have to have a close relationship, and we have to have confidence they’re going to be able to work together."

I suspect the lists for both jobs might have some overlap. A lot of the personal qualities are similar. Zaidi has said that managerial experience is not a prerequisite for the field job (Aaron Boone had no experience coaching at any level before the Yankees hired him), so the same might be true for the desk job.

So how do you replace Bochy? You can't. You can hire a new manager--not a replacement. Identify the things you want from a manager and find that person. Giants fans will have a hard time viewing the new guy in a new light--they'll want to subject him to a checklist of Bochy comparisons. Farhan can't do that. Obviously Boch possesses many of the personal qualities needed to succeed at the big league level, but Boch is Boch. I don't want an ersatz Boch. I want a new person with their own story.

I really think Buster Posey should be the Giants manager. I've no idea if he entertains the idea, but it seems like he has all the experience, skills, knowledge, and gravitas necessary. So the Giants should hire a guy for a few years (Bam-Bam?) until Buster quits playing and takes the reins.

But that probably won't happen. He'll go back to Georgia and run for Senator. In the real world the Giants will hire a guy no one has heard of. Don't be surprised if the guy they get is a surprise. I don't keep my nose that close to the industry buzz so I have no real insight. DrBGiantsfan, who blogs at When the Giants Come to Town, has a breakdown of names you might look at. He's always thorough and thoughtful.

Baggs made the point in another article that if you want to know what kind of guy the Giants will hire look no further than the one FZ helped hire in LA: Dave Roberts.

Managing in MLB is hard. There is a small pool of people with the skills and passion needed. Even guys with all the goods on their résumés fail at the task. FZ is known as a process-oriented person and likes to "trust the process" and go with the outcome it generates. Roberts, for example, was not considered a favorite going in, but he came out as the number-one guy.

I can live with that. I was happy when the Giants hired Farhan Zaidi and I think it will be fun and interesting to see how he goes about creating the next-gen manager and general manager for the franchise. I want to be open-minded and not have a preconceived notion of who these people "ought" or "ought-not" to be. Frankly, I don't know any of the people involved and can only get the same information all of us get who are not part of the business. So it makes no sense to form opinions based on other peoples' opinions.

A lot of other teams (Mets, Padres, Pirates, Cubs, Angels, Royals) are looking for a skipper, that could make the process take a while, and of course many people won't be available until after the post-season. The Winter Meetings are scheduled for December 8-12, so I'd like to think the Giants would have at least a GM at that point. We'll see!

--M.C.

The Deadline Approacheth . . .

SD 5  SF 1
Shaun Anderson struck out seven in his five-plus innings but was tagged for four runs. Trevor Gott got the other. The lineup had a tough time again, managing only one run. Hits have been scarce for the Giants in San Diego.

Tomorrow Madison Bumgarner takes the hill and a month ago I would have said this would be his last start in a Giants uniform. The team's winning ways since then have forced me to re-think that.

The narrative is Buyers & Sellers. If you think you will make the post-season, buy the guys you need to make a real run for the title. If you are out of it, sell the few assets you have and hope to hit the franchise reset button. This binary thinking is great for journalists, blowhards, bloggers and the poor, suffering fans who have to put up with all that hot air and spilled ink.

Through it all we have our very own PoBO, Farhan Zaidi, who always seems to be eager, curious, and positive. For a high-energy guy in a competitive business he is surprisingly serene. Most successful people view problems and dilemmas as opportunities and relish the creative and analytical challenges. I don't think FZ sees The Trade Deadline as a binary exercise. Trade player X, Yes/No? That's not how he rolls. He is on a mission to improve the club and win ballgames. Sounds like a truism, I know, you expect all GMs and PoBOs and whatnot to approach their jobs that way.

FZ isn't going to view July 31st in black-and-white terms. Sacrifice the future to win now! Sacrifice now to win in the future! That's not how his head works. He's capable of operating on several timelines simultaneously and can see winning now and rebuilding as the same, multi-faceted operation. I know I'm making him sound like fucking Yoda, but I have to say he really does come across that way, and I'm happy to let him do what he wants to do.

Giants fans are a bit spoiled, and whiny, and there are a heap of geniuses out there who know what's best for the club. They aren't going to be happy with what FZ does. Buy, Sell, Buy-and-Sell, Stand Pat--it doesn't matter. There will be plenty of bitching to go around.

It seems to me a lot less likely they will trade Bumgarner. Only two or three teams could use him and they won't spend the resources the Giants would want in return on a rental. That's cool with me. I want the Big Fella to stay. They can make him a Qualifying Offer at the end of the season and see how it plays out. Or sign him to an extension. That would be a chunk of change, but we are talking about Madison Bumgarner. Fans love MadBum. Keeping fans happy is good. He's proven he is still a good pitcher, a valuable teammate, and a great performer. Having a star player who shows up on highlight-reels is a lot of fun.

The Big Three (Dyson/Watson/Smith) might get broken up. Or, FZ might surprise us and trade a young arm (Black, Coonrod, Moronta, etc.) because teams really like cheap, controllable assets. The Giants might get some prospects in trade and then turn them around and buy a starter or a power bat to help the team immediately. I've no idea, but I'm not expecting anything too dramatic. FZ likes the incremental approach, but he could certainly surprise us.

The Giants played decent ball in June after a terrible start and have played great ball so far in July. I want that to continue. If the team plays good baseball then good things will happen. I just want to focus on the day-to-day and watch the club grind out wins and sustain the winning energy and culture that's been missing the last two seasons. The biggest thing the Giants will do this year is not going to happen this week but in October when they say goodbye to Bruce Bochy and get themselves a new manager. They will be doing that whether they finish strong or not, and after 13 seasons and three World Series wins, that will be quite a change!

So relax and enjoy the baseball. That's my advice. Don't sweat the trades. We can't make 'em, so we have to trust the guys in charge. And I feel pretty good about that.

GO GIANTS!

--M.C.

Opener Day

Many years ago I remember thinking that a team ought to try a 3-3-3 approach. Get three guys to throw three innings apiece. Heck, you could have three sets of those guys on your staff and pitch every other game that way. Anyway, it was a notion no one took seriously and that's probably good.

Despite the disappearance of the complete game every team still wants a rotation of five Max Scherzers. Of course there is only one of him and maybe a handful of guys just as good as him. There aren't 150, that's for sure. Thus we have killer bullpens and five-inning starters. The so-called "opener" has come to the fore and teams are giving it a try. Why not? If you have LOOGYs why can't you have openers?

Is it a gimmick? Will it wind up in the dustbin of baseball history? Maybe. But teams are playing baseball RIGHT NOW and they need to win ballgames RIGHT NOW. We can worry about the history books later. I say do what works. If the opener gives the Giants a better chance to win then what's the problem?

Nick Vincent gets the call today against Toronto. No, this outing is not a referendum on the new-school, analytics-driven baseball of the 21st century. It's one game. It's not going to make or break Farhan Zaidi's tenure as PoBO. But it does say something, and it's pretty simple: do what you have to do to win. Get the best matchups for your players. I appreciate that Mr. Old School Himself, Bruce Bochy, is smart and adaptable and willing to risk opprobium in order to try to make the team better. If a guy like Boch can embrace the opener, shouldn't we all?

GO GIANTS!

--M.C.

Giants Rally Past Reds

SF 6  CIN 5
Madison Bumgarner has thrown 18 innings in his last three starts, six innings in each. He's walked only three and whiffed 23, but has allowed 20 hits including three homers. It all tallies to eight runs allowed but more importantly three wins for the team. Today his catcher Erik Kratz didn't help him out (first batter reached on catcher's interference and was PB'd to second) and he put the team in a 2-0 hole after a two-out hit. Pablo Sandoval tied it up in the bottom half with a two-run homer, but Bum gave up another two-out hit which led to a run in the 2nd inning. After three scoreless Bum batted for himself in the 5th, striking out, and then gave up a homer to the first batter of the 6th (Yasiel Puig). That was enough to doom the Giants, normally, but they rallied late and got a big pinch-hit homer from Brandon Belt (driving in Brandon Crawford, who had walked) to tie it 4-4 in the 7th. Reyes Moronta loaded the bases in the 8th and that led to a run, but the Giants rallied again to take a 6-5 lead in the bottom half. Big hits from Evan Longoria, Panda again, and Kevin Pillar gave Will Smith a chance to save it and he did so. The Giants snapped a three-game losing streak.

It was a good start, overall, in a string of terrible starts. Bumgarner and the 'pen held the Dodgers to one run on May 1st and won that game (and the series). Here's the tally since then by the starters (IP/R): 2.1/8, 5/8, 5/4, 1.2/7, 6/3 (MadBum), 2.2/7, 5/4, and 4/3. Not pretty. Oh, that included 18 HR. That's right: eighteen homers. Dereck Rodriguez was sent back to AAA, Drew Pomeranz was put on the IL, and Derek Holland was moved to the bullpen. I can't argue with any of that. Tyler Beede will get the start on Tuesday and then it is TBD. Perhaps they'll call up a youngster like Shaun Anderson or Andrew Suarez. I don't know! It's an uncertain time out there for anyone not named Madison Bumgarner.

Apparently Derek Holland caused a bit of a local kerfuffle complaining to the media about his demotion and claiming his IL stay was "fake." Buddy, EVERY TEAM uses the IL creatively! A hangnail is almost good enough. If his ERA was other than 6.75 it would not have happened. Everyone also knows you go to your coaches and/or manager first if you have a beef, and you don't rip "the front office" (i.e., your bosses) in public without at least doing it in private first. But that's OK. If a player is happy after a demotion I think he's in the wrong profession. Pitch well, and the problems will go away. Winning clubhouses are happy clubhouses. I have to give Boch a lot of credit for keeping stuff like this under wraps these last few seasons when the team has played so poorly. You have to figure folks get grumpy when week after week they perform below expectations. With the regime change everyone also knows things are going to be different and there is some uncertainty ahead for many of the players. That has to weigh on their minds. FZ made a point to say that if he has not made it comfortable for players to come to him with problems then "that is on him" and he will do more to improve communication. He's the new sheriff in town and there's bound to be some growing pains but I remain convinced he's the right person. I particularly like that he is relentlessly positive and looks for solutions. He doesn't pass the buck or cast blame.

Off-day tomorrow and again on Thursday with two against the Blue Jays in between.

--M.C.

Required Reading!

Giants fans and all of us here at RMC should check out this piece from Tim Keown of ESPN. It is about Farhan Zaidi, the team's President of Baseball Operations. He's an interesting character and I think we are going to enjoy having him around.

--M.C.

Lucky 13

Giants notch their thirteenth win (against thirteen losses) in their final Cactus League game. Pablo Sandoval had two hits and a run scored and Alen Hanson hit the game-winning homer. Both of those guys are "on the bubble" and fighting for a spot. The Panda actually has minor-league options, but his veteran status means he does not have to accept a demotion and can ask for his outright release (at least that's my grasp of the Byzantine MLB roster rules). We'll see what shakes out. All assumptions are off: FZ is still wheelin' and dealin' and I don't expect The Final Twenty-Five to be named until the last possible moment.

Giants face the A's tomorrow at 1:05 in Oakland and follow that with two evening games (6:45 start times) in San Francisco (what are we calling The Park--The Big O? The Orifice?). The real thing starts on Thursday in San Diego. It's the Padres Home Opener!

--M.C.

Who's Running the Show?

I honestly don't know.  We hired a guy, Farhan Zaidi, as President of Baseball Operations.  He was hired because he was an "analytics" guy.  And "analytics" tells us that long-term, expensive contracts are not a very productive way to build a winning ball club.  Because of that, we're not seeing so many of them and players and agents are whining about collusion.  Farhan Zaidi has had a big role in building a winning ball club, with that blue-ish team down in LA.  That team may be nearly unmentionable to Giants fans, but you have to admit, they have done a good job of winning.  Like, in the playoffs each of the past 6 years, in the world series the past 2.  I know, they haven't won it all, but they have been in a position to do so, unlike the Giants lately.

One of the reasons the Giants went out and got a shiny, new President of Baseball Operations, was that our previous GM, Bobby Evans, signed a number of players to long-term contracts that have not been very productive, and have certainly not made the Giants into a winning team.  Mark Melancon is a case in point, having pitched a total of 69 innings in his 2 years of service as a closer for $15.5 million per year.  You are, of course, familiar with others.  Injuries are part of it, perhaps a big part, but the fact is, the Giants have not been a competitive team the past couple of years.

So here we are, and word is that the Giants are offering Bryce Harper, a guy who's stats are the poorest in Oracle nee PhoneCo of any major league stadium, a long-term contract of, maybe, more than 10 years and more than $300 million.  How new is this "new direction"?  How "analytical" is this long-term deal?

This is today's bit from MLBTraderumors.com on the Bryce Harper shitshow.  I don't know what Bob Nightengale knows.  I honestly don't understand what the Giants are doing.  I don't know if Farhan Zaidi is running the team or not.

New Old Faces

The Giants have signed several veteran ballplayers in the last few days to minor-league deals. Those come, it seems, with an invitation to camp and a chance to compete for a roster spot. The latest is Cameron Maybin who has been with several teams but Giants fans probably remember him best in a Padres uniform. He's a former first-round pick (2005, #10) and an established glove-man, primarily as a centerfielder. At 31 he's been in the majors a remarkable 12 seasons, debuting in 2007 as a 20-year old. Also in the mix is Gerardo Parra, at one time a rising star with the Diamondbacks, who plays all three outfield spots, and has spent the last few seasons with the Rockies, thus another familiar fellow. Versatile infielder Yangervis Solarte--who we've also seen with the Padres--is hoping to bounce back after a rough 2017, having been a roughly 6-bWAR player from 2014-2017. Both are also 31. There is nothing to dislike about these signings, they are the perfect players to add depth and to measure the youngsters against. All three are accomplished major-leaguers but don't take up a spot--yet--on the 40-man. I think this is the kind of stuff FZ cut his teeth on with Billy Beane in Oakland.

--M.C.


p.s. I neglected to mention Craig Gentry, a 35-year old outfielder, probably because he's not as familiar as the above group even though he spent two seasons ('14-'15) with the Athletics. He came up with the Rangers in '09 and has also played for the Angels and the Orioles. He is also mostly known as a glove-first type, logging 1972 innings as a centerfielder over his ten seasons.