Giants Suck

There, I said it.  I expect Mark (we're at the end of 6 innings) or Jon to post, but neither hasn't done it yet, so here is a rant.

The Giants have not played .400 baseball in 1 year.  They went into the All Star Break last year with the best record in baseball.  Coming out, they sucked.  Their post ASB record was 30 - 42.  They had a pretty good spring training, going 20 - 16, but then sucked again once the season started, going 34 - 56 up to now.  Today's game was a good example.  The Giants did some good things.  They came back from a 7 - 3 deficit by scoring 2 in the 8th and 2 in the 9th.  But then blew chow in the 11th and lost, just like so many times before. 

This is the same fucking team that compiled the best record in baseball up to 1 year ago.  Here is a list of the guys who have not been a disappointment:

Buster Posey.

That's it. Maybe Blach, only because the expectations were so low.   I don't have a solution.  No one does.  If there was one, it would have been implemented by now.  Maybe it is a little bit of every damn thing every lazy sportswriter has copied from somebody else.   Whatever.  It is clearly not one thing.  So here is a list, in order, of the things that suck from most to somewhat less, in my opinion, without stats to back them up:

1. Relief pitching
2. Batting
3. Starting pitching
4. Fielding

And you know what makes it worse?  Up to a couple days ago, trading Johnny Cueto (and then maybe signing him next year) seemed like a good idea.  Today, what could we get for him?  Who would want him?  Some contending team with a MIDDLE OF THE ROTATION AT BEST pitcher who just got hurt - maybe.  What would we get?  Maybe a prospect.  Johnny might be good next year, but here's the thing.  If he picks it up and pitches great - he opts out.  If he doesn't, he doesn't opt out and the Giants are stuck with his contract.  Great deal, huh?  Trading Nunez?  He's hurt - he's worth nada.

So if management decides to blow this team up, and I mean BLOW THIS TEAM UP, I'm OK with that.   Well, not Buster, that would be baseball suicide.  But ANYONE and EVERYONE ELSE.  I have a totally irrational hope.  Last year, the Giants were winning like crazy up to the ASB.  There was 1 blip, when they dropped 3 of 4 to the A's at the end of June.  This year, they had a blip - it was their 6 game winning streak.  So my irrational hope is that they come out of the break and inexplicably win just like they inexplicably lost for the past year.  Wacky, right?  Totally.  That just shows what kind of voodoo this fucking team has wrought. 

Vlog 21 "All-Meh Game 2016"

NL All-Stars 2 AL All-Stars 4 

A couple Royals wrecked the night for JohnnyC and the American League will have home field advantage.  I hope we find that very irritating later this year.  Otherwise, it wasn't really a fun or memorable game.  Not much to talk about... check out my wild shirt though...

Vlog 21 "All-Meh Game 2016"

All Star

Madison Bumgarner left no doubt.  He will not be pitching in the All Star Game, but he will be there and tonight slammed the door on the first part of the season with a decisive 4 - 0 victory over the snakes.

How decisive, you ask?  A complete game.  14 strikeouts.  1 hit, 1 BB.  He had a perfect game going into the top of the 5th, when Gregor Blanco dropped what would have been a tough catch to put a man on.  He still had a no hitter, though, into the 8th, when Jake Lamb singled.  Lamb was the guy who was on base from the Blanco error.  14 strikeouts ties a career high for Madison.  He looked for awhile like he was to challenge the strikeout record, 11 K's through 5.  No matter, though, it was a thrilling victory to sweep the snakes and send the Giants to the All Star break with the best record in baseball.  Brandon Crawford, the guy who is not going to the All Star game (but should!) is tied for 6th in rbi in the National League.  He had three tonight.  Buster Posey, who is going to the All Star game (and definitely should be there) had three hits.  Maybe he will catch Johnny Cueto as a starter there.  All in all, this was a great game for a Giants fan.  San Diego is probably thinking, "Holy crap, this guy is going to start after the break, too?"

So here is the way I see it.  Remember back when the Giants went to St. Louis at the beginning of June?  They dropped 2 of 3 there.  Then they came home, split 2 games with Boston and turned around and dropped the first game to Kershaw.  So, 4 losses in 6 games.  But they turned around, took the next 2 games from LA, then swept 3 from Milwaukee at home, swept 3 at Tampa Bay, took 3 of 4 at Pittsburgh and, back home, 2 of 3 from Philadelphia.  They stumbled against the A's, losing 3 of 4, before taking 2 of 3 at Arizona, 2 of 3 at home against Colorado and sweeping the snakes in this series.   23 wins in 34 games.  Amidst all the cries of a shoddy bullpen, they have done an awful lot of winning.  When they have stumbled, they have righted themselves in a hurry.  That says to me that they are more likely to make minor moves than major ones.  We have some of our starters coming back soon.

This is Not a Book About Bases on Balls

This is a book by Bruce Bochy, manager of the 2015 National League All Stars.  He likes to take walks, by himself after a tough loss, with his wife in San Francisco and to get to the ball park.  The book describes some of those walks.  Not just here, but in Arizona and Cincinnati and other places.  The book reads like Bruce talking, you can almost hear the southern drawl.  And since there is a couple of days with no real baseball.......

Rookies Take Care of Business

Chris Heston pitched well and Josh Osich came in to get four big outs and the Giants prevailed over the Phillies, 4-1. Andrew Susac's three-run homer was the back-breaking hit--he and Osich were teammates at Oregon State. Veterans Angel Pagan and Buster Posey were the rest of the offense with six hits between them. It was a good day at the yard. I like what I've seen from the flamethrowing southpaw. The 'pen can use a lift from a lefty with Jeremy Affeldt on the DL. The Dodgers got a late homer to fuel a comeback win in Milwaukee and close out the first half 4-1/2 games up on the Giants, that was the only blemish on the day.

Last night I went to a boxing match for the first time in forty years. Locals, all pros, we saw seven fights: two KOs, two TKOs, two unanimous decisions, and one split decision. Something for everyone. It takes some cojones to stand within arm's length of another fellow knowing he is going to hit you and try to put you down with blows. I had to admire their guts. In the end, if the fighters were even, the one with more stamina--more heart--prevailed. I kept thinking about the Giants. Our boys have shown tremendous resilience and determination in their championship campaigns. If they hope to prevail in the second half they will have to play their best ball. They've got 73 games left and the team ahead of them is on a pace for 92 wins. That means the 46-43 Giants will have to play .630, 46-27, to tie. Win as many games in the second half as the first. That's a tall order. Certainly the Dodgers could fade and fall like a glass-jawed amateur, but you can't count on that. No, the Giants will have to get in close and counter-punch. And no, I haven't forgotten how well that second wild-card worked out last season.

Enjoy the All-Star Break, everyone!

--M.C.

Giants Slam Diamondbacks

The World Cup is over and so is all that exhausting running around and that irritating lack of scoring. Right about the time Germany was collecting their one world championship goal Buster Posey was whacking a grand slam and Giants fans were having a much-needed cathartic moment. Madison Bumgarner added his own grand slam an inning later, and the Giants even loaded the bases again (for Joaquin Arias) in the same frame. That was the first battery in major-league history to hit grand slams in the same game. Buster and Madison each have two career slams, both of the Bumbino's coming this season. Buster had an iconic slam in the playoffs against the Reds in 2012 that I imagine none of us will ever forget. In soccer, you score a goal and you win. At least in these big-time matches. It's not so easy for the Giants. You'd think two slams would be enough to send the visitors packing, but they were pesky and chased MadBum with three in the top of the 7th. It took some strong relief to finish the job. The young southpaw's last four starts have not been up to his usual standards, but the team got a win and that's what matters the most. I expect we'll see more ace-like performances from him in the second half.

The Giants go to the All-Star Break with a 52-43 record after 95 games. The 52 wins is tied with Atlanta and St. Louis for third-best in the NL, trailing only Los Angeles and Milwaukee. Detroit, Oakland, and Los Angeles-Anaheim have more wins in the AL. The Giants .547 win percentage is tied with Atlanta for fourth-best in the NL and the eighth-best overall. San Francisco would finish with 89 wins at this pace (37-30). With 67 games remaining they have to play .600 ball the rest of the way (40-27) to get to 92 wins. The Dodgers stand atop the NL West by one game after consecutive 1-0 wins against the Padres. Their 54-43 record and .557 win percentage is the best in the league and only the AL West's A's and Angels are better.

Enjoy the Break, me buckos, relax and save your strength. It will be both tortuous and torturous from this point on.

Giants baseball resumes on Friday at 4:10 Pacific in Miami.

Lest I forget: "Go NL!"

--M.C.


 p.s. Lots of great moments in today's game like Pence's catch, Pence's assist, the pickoff that was almost a double play, etc. Discuss.

p.p.s.  MVP (for the season so far): Hunter Pence. Best pitcher: Madison Bumgarner. Discuss.

p.p.p.s. Under-performer Award: Matt Cain. Hit-like-you-did-today-the-rest-of-the-way Award is a tie: Buster Posey and Pablo Sandoval. Discuss.

Nats walk all over Cain, Giants

Thirteen years ago, Russ Ortiz walked the first three guys he faced. Tonight, a nearly full moon hanging low in the sky, Matt Cain walked the first three guys he faced. Neither game turned out well. The Padres beat the Giants 10-7 that afternoon in 2001, and the Nationals beat the Giants 6-2 this evening for their third win in three chances. The Giants have lost three straight for only the second time this season--they lost three consecutive 2-1 games from April 17th to April 19th, the first to the Dodgers and the next two to the Padres. It wasn't long ago that San Francisco was the hottest club on the planet, winning their last five series and boasting the best record. Washington, though, has served notice with ten wins in their last twelve games including a 17-5 pasting of the home team at AT&T Park. The Nationals seized first place in the NL East with tonight's win, and their +50 run difference is just behind the Giants at +53 (Oakland rules the roost at +130).

Cain did not have the command he showed in his last start--his five walks were just shy of his career high of six. Giving up the home run in the 5th to Jayson Werth after making him look foolish was a particularly cruel blow. It was to be a moral victory of sorts, putting up zeroes after the ugly start to the game, getting a shut down inning after the Giants finally scored, but that's not how it worked out. Matty has yet to find his groove in 2014, and his ten starts are the fewest of the five in the rotation. Here's a guy, you'd think, who has seen it all in his ten years, everything from last place and losing records to World Series rings, All-Star Games, and perfection. Just last year he gave up nine runs in one inning! Before tonight, though, Matt Cain had never walked the first three guys he'd faced in a game. Baseball is funny--if some new horror hasn't happened to you it's only because you haven't played long enough!

There's one more shot at the Nationals tomorrow afternoon with Tim Hudson on the mound.

GO GIANTS!

--M.C.

Break Time

The Padres got their revenge today. It's been a humiliating run for them (2-12 in July,  6-20 since beating the Giants on June 17th, getting no-hit, etc.) and they took it out on Barry Zito and the bullpen. The loss comes immediately after the high point of this low point in the season, something only lifers like us can appreciate. You have to be encouraged by the team taking three of four from San Diego, especially since they won so impressively, flashing all of their considerable tools. And they avoided the basement, at least for the Break, and that has to feel good. But there are things to be discouraged about, most especially the math, which I'll get to in a bit. Tim Lincecum pitched a no-hitter last night, and that was damn exciting. Remind yourself of that when this much-needed hiatus from the games is over. Mostly, this season is about missing Ryan Vogelsong, wondering about Matt Cain, and remaining bewildered about Barry-Z. The Giants come to the ASB 43-51 with 68 games remaining. They need 39 wins to finish with a winning record. To win 90, they have to go 47-21 which is .691 ball. There are only three .600 or better clubs in the majors right now. If the Arizona Diamondbacks play roughly their current .532 ball the rest of the way, they'll finish with 87 wins. That means the Giants will have to go 45-23 (.662) to beat them out. That's taking two of three in every series from this point forward. The team has 21 series left.

It's long odds, to be sure. I'd put down a bet only if you gave me at least 10-1. But I'm not a betting man, I'm only happy when my money rides on sure things. (As if there are any of those.) It is not outside the realm of possibility, though. That's the thing. It could happen. There is a lot of talent in San Francisco. There's grit, moxie, élan, esprit de corps, and VSC aplenty. Not to mention pennant race experience. The NL West is still open despite the Giants being out by seven games, that's something that can be halved on a good weekend. A ten-game win streak, a stretch of 12 wins in 15 or the like, could turn the season around. Such things happen, as we know, quite often in baseball. So, let's relax and enjoy the respite, and if you get the urge post up your notions about the second half. Let's kick 'em around and see what we've got, maybe we'll come up with all the answers.

GO GIANTS!

--M.C.



p.s. Madison Bumgarner and Buster Posey are awesome.

42

A few days ago I was astride a granite boulder that rested in the scree along the edge of a Sierra lake. I was craning my neck to examine a small plant through a hand lens--it was a wild orchid, the tiny white flowers spiraling up a short stem that clung to a crack in the rock. The afternoon sun had crisped my forearms umber, and the wind whipped my hat enough so that I needed my chin strap. Down the mountain was a stream strewn with Tiger Lillies in the shady spots, and I soaked my hot, tired flesh in a surging pool eddying out from a small waterfall. The butterflies abounded along meadow verges, iridescent Melissa Blues and stately Lorquin's Admirals, and warblers chased each other among the lodgepoles. A few days before that I was dumping my companions and the beer cooler from the canoe and into the Russian River with an unfortunate maneuver. Fortunately, all was recovered, the summer levels being quite low, and we wrestled our craft back to action and finished the float. There were Fourth of July fireworks from an Oakland Hills vista, a famous play in a small theater in the big City, a Sonoma wine-tasting excursion, a seafood dinner along the Carquinez Strait, and many wonderful long days and late nights with family and friends. In short, it was a hell of a holiday.

And speaking of hell, how the hell did this happen? This 2013 Giants team? Poor performances, sure. Key injuries, of course. But collapse? This is not one of the scenarios I envisioned. At the very worst, I thought this a .500 club. I did not believe this team was capable of playing this poorly. Every baseball team puts up stretches of .350 ball. Sometimes it even lasts a whole season--just ask the Astros. But this sustained run of bad baseball is a shocker. On May 12th, the Giants had just taken three of four from the Braves and were 23-15, in first place in the West by two games. They've gone 19-35 since, including a stretch where they lost 16 of 19. They are now in fourth place, 6-1/2 back, fighting it out with the Padres for the booby prize.

The 2009 Giants won their 42nd game on July 1st (Game 77). The 2010 Giants won their 42nd game on July 5th (Game 82). The 2011 Giants won their 42nd game on June 24th (Game 76). The 2012 Giants won their 42nd game on June 26th (Game 75). The 2013 Giants piled it on in San Diego last night, finally racking up win 42 on July 12th, their 92nd game. That's the kind of math I don't like. In terms of seasonal innings, Games 73-90 constituted their fifth 18-game cluster, and cluster it was. They went 3-15, an unimaginable stretch of bad luck and worse ball-playing. That's 11-7, 10-8, 8-10, 8-10, and the unfathomable 3-15 for the five innings. On a bright note, two wins in Games 91 and 92 gets the sixth frame started off with a nice 2-0 record. If you break it down by month, April was 15-12, May 14-13, June a swooning 10-17, and July a wretched 3-8. If any team could use an All-Star Break, it's San Francisco.

I'm back home, my friends. I'm plugged in again. I'll admit that I took a vacation from the Giants as well--when I go AWOL I go all the way. I did not know about Homer Bailey beating Tim Lincecum and his mates with a no-hitter. I did not know about Zack Wheeler besting Matt Cain and the boys, Matty throwing his shortest start ever, on the heels of getting clobbered by the Dodgers. What's up with Cain? I'm dumbfounded. We watched Tim be just about the lousiest starter in the NL last year, now we get the pleasure of doing it all over again, this time with no. 18. I swear I have not insulted the gods! In fact, I make my regular offerings, just like always. Perhaps more drastic measures are needed. Thanks for holding down the fort in my absence.

GO GIANTS!

--M.C.

Giants Win Again!

Last time the Giants won, Madison Bumgarner was on the hill.  Also, tonight!  Until yesterday, you might have said that everything about the Giants kind of had a sinking feeling with the exception of Matt Cain or Madison Bumgarner.  After yesterday..........................

Let's be positive.  A home run from Pablo Sandoval.  That was his first since May.  Gregor Blanco had some hits.  And Kensuke Tanaka!  12 hits, 3 for Blanco, 2 for Posey and Tanaka.  Madison gave up 3 hits in the first inning to allow 2 runs, but only 1 more in seven, striking out 6 and walking only 1.  He is going to the All Star game.  I think that the managers are catching on to what should be the obvious strategy - have a bunch of closers on your team.  The pitchers, with the exception of the starter, rarely go more than one inning anyway. 

Well, we could go back to bitching about all the bases-loaded at bats the Giants had that did not score, but let's not put a damper on the evening.  There do seem to be some omens that the Giants might hit at a better clip.  Baseball can turn around quickly, especially when it is hard to fathom reasons.

Recurring Cardinals Nightmare Sinks Cain and Giants

Matt Cain had the freakiest inning of his career at home against the Cardinals in April, and damn close to the same thing happened again today in St. Louis. He cruised through the first six batters, looking sharp and in command, then all of a sudden he was in the stretch and the hailstorm of hits would not stop. Is he mechanically unsound? Mentally unfocused? Tipping his pitches? What the hell is going on? I wish I knew. It was not fun to watch, that much I can say. Maybe the Cards are still pissed about losing the LCS and save their extra-special efforts for the Giants. Then again, they are the best team in baseball right now, and hit the snot out of the ball no matter who they play. The lineup was missing both Angel Pagan and Pablo Sandoval and surrendered feebly to Shelby Miller's fastball, making the first game of the doubleheader a mismatch. They say "hitting is contagious," so perhaps bad starting pitching is as well. The Giants have not been able to keep the quality starts coming, something quite out of character for this club. Cain looked like he'd righted the ship the last two times out, yielding a total of six hits and zero homers and the team won both games. He had four good starts out of five for the month of May, and the team won all five, but flipping the calendar to June released the Hounds of Hell. Cain has now given up 46 runs (7 today, all in the 3rd) in 74-1/3 innings!

After our boy signed his mega-extension, he responded in Year One with a one-hitter in the Home Opener, followed it with The First Perfect Game in Franchise History, then a win in the All-Star Game, and finally a World Series Title. Not bad. Not bad at all. Hell, that's almost worth a hundred mill right there! But Year Two is not going according to plan. Not according to plan at all.

Matty darlin', I could never be angry with ye. Disappointed now and then, for sure. We all have our ups and downs, this I know only too well. Right now, though, I'm feeling something new. I'm shaken. Aye, that's it. Shaken. Like if Caruso hit a sour note, or Picasso's pencil ran off the page. Come back to us, lad, and soon.

--M.C.

The Final Fifty-Four

1st inning: 9-9
2nd inning: 9-9
3rd inning: 12-6
4th inning: 10-8
5th inning: 10-8
6th inning: 9-9

Sunday's win behind Timmy in Colorado finished the first two-thirds of the season (Game 108). It was a bit of a rough patch, that 6th inning, and tonight's affair was the first of the 7th inning and the first of the final third of the season. The Dodgers won't be gentlemen about it, they have no intention of letting the Giants have the last dance to themselves. They are going to have to be called outside for an ass-whuppin' before the good guys get the goods. It's going to require everyone on the team to step up and be studly. With Tim Lincecum emerging and Pablo Sandoval returning one can feel good about the Giants chances.

Then there's Matt Cain. It's no secret he has not been the same guy since El Perfecto. He made a nice splash in the All-Star Game, as did the rest of the orange-and-blackers, but the starts since then have not been up to snuff. To wit:

                                                   
Date    Opp Rslt    IP   H  R ER BB  SO HR HBP  BF GSc
Jun18   LAA W5-3   5.0   6  3  3  4   4  1   1  25  43
Jun24   OAK L2-4   7.0   3  1  1  2   7  0   1  26  72
Jun29   CIN L1-5   6.2  11  5  5  1   7  2   0  32  38
Jul5    WSN L5-6   6.2   6  3  3  1   4  2   0  26  53
Jul15   HOU W3-2   6.1   5  2  1  1   6  0   0  25  62
Jul21   PHI W6-5   8.0   5  5  5  2   4  3   1  30  54
Jul27   LAD L3-5   7.0   9  3  3  0   2  0   0  29  49
Aug1    NYM L1-2   5.0   7  2  2  3   5  1   0  23  47

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/6/2012.

Now that's some pretty good pitching. For most guys, that is. 51-2/3 IP, 52 H, 24 R, 39 SO, 14 BB, and  9 HR over 8 starts will get you a regular gig in the majors (52 average Game Score). But Matt Cain is no longer just another regular. He's earned the right to be paid like an ace and to be treated like an ace and that means he now has to pitch like one. (Matt gave up 9 total home runs 2011, for example.) It's not like any of these starts were Zitovian meltdowns, although last week against the Mets came damn close if not for some lucky breaks and good fielding. Tonight was about as close to a meltdown as Cain gets. All players go through rough patches, and if this is as rough as it gets for Matty I can hardly complain. But stretch drive is here. The pennant race is on. This is when it gets decided. The Giants will have to get Master Cain back out there for the 7th, 8th and 9th innings.

Tonight in St. Louis against an excellent hitting squad our boy could not finish the job. He'd get to two strikes or to two outs (or both) and give it up. They wore him down and chased him in the 6th with a patient, relentless attack. Normally we see Matt hold his own and get those big outs, but this is not the same Cain we watched in the first half of the season. Is he tired? Hurt? Or just on the bottom end of a long slump? We never have the answers to those questions, do we? There's a lot more on big righty's shoulders these days. It used to be nobody noticed, and when they did, they undervalued what they saw. You win a World Series ring, an All-Star Game, and pitch a perfect game, people pay more attention. Teams pay more attention. (Not to mention the gargantuan contract and the scrutiny that comes with that.) The marquee name on the squad has a rough first half, the second name on the list gets bumped up. It's the big leagues, you can fly under the radar for just so long. Looks like everyone has Matty in their sights right now. He's going to have to fine tune that out-making machine real soon, and get back to delivering the kind of starts he's spoiled us with so many times before.

7th inning: 0-1, 17 to play.


--M.C.

Thirteen Ways to Win

I love the number thirteen. I was born on Friday the 13th, fer chrissakes. Trece been berry berry good to me. The Giants got 13 hits and scored 13 runs, and hey, it made me happy. Then they bitched it all up by hitting more and scoring more. Save a few for tomorrow, eh? Mostly I wanted to write about how Ryan Vogelsong is the best pitcher on the San Francisco Giants. Sure, he got slammed for a big four in the 7th, but it's Coors Field. I mean Coors Fucking Field, as in that Goddamned Fucking Coors Field. You give up a four-spot there its like a one-spot everywhere else, right? Vogie loses his quality start streak but keeps his six-inning streak going. What a beast! Matt Cain was clearly the best Giants pitcher up to El Perfecto and the All-Star Game. But he has been off his game of late, and The Voge-ster has been Mr. Consistency. Since April! He's out-Cained Cain. The guy has been absolutely brilliant in 2012, following up his "flukey" 2011. I remember watching him last season and thinking "this guy can really pitch." This from the genius who thought Pete Falcone and Ed Halicki were Cy Young Award material . It's nice to be vindicated, despite the fact that I really don't give a shit. All I care about is WINS in the goddamn win column. Way to go, Giants, way to win!

--M.C.

It's all about the pitching

Baseball-Reference measures pitching using ERA+, which compares the league average ERA to a team or individual ERA. Thus, an ERA+ of 120 roughly means that the league is 20% worse (gives up 20% more earned runs per nine innings) than the pitcher or staff. FanGraphs uses ERA-, which flips the fraction over and compares an individual or team ERA to the league average. Thus, an ERA- of 80 would indicate a pitcher or staff that is 20% better (allows 20% fewer earned runs per nine) than the league. In both cases, a score of 100 would indicate unity, or league average. Both stats claim to have a park factor in the final result that adjusts for, say, playing in Fenway vs. Petco. Both are handy thumbnails for evaluating pitchers and pitching staffs.

I made a graph of the Giants team ERA+ and ERA- for the seasons 2009-2012. I treated the interim numbers for 2012 the same as the full-season numbers, just to get a quick snapshot of how the current guys compare. Madison Bumgarner actually made his debut in 2009, throwing ten innings over four games (one start). Tim Lincecum was the star of that squad, and both Matt Cain and Barry Zito had 33 starts apiece. Brian Wilson, Sergio Romo, Jeremy Affeldt, and Brad Penny were also on that staff. In 2010, The Bumbino had 18 starts and supplanted Barry-Z on the post-season roster. Santiago Casilla, Guillermo Mota, and Javier Lopez joined the fun. Last year Ryan Vogelsong emerged and Jonathan Sanchez pitched his last game as a Giant. Take a look:

As a team, the Giants ERA+ for 2009-20012 goes 120, 117, 110, and 97. That's 1st, 1st, 3rd, and 10th in the NL. Their ERA- goes 86, 85, 86, and 93, good for 2nd, 1st, 2nd, and 5th. I don't know why B-R rates the Giants so poorly compared to FanGraphs, but I suspect it has to do with the mysterious "park factors." Regardless, it is clear the staff is not as elite as it once was. We all know the culprit, of course, but Tim Lincecum gets some help from his bullpen, too. The loss of both Willie and WillyMo certainly hurt. The Giants are blessed with excellent starters and a talented relief corps. But team-wide they are much more prone to giving up runs than in the previous three seasons. Another way to look at this is to just take raw "runs allowed" numbers and compare them to the league average "runs allowed." The RA/lgRA ratio should be 1.00 for a "league average" team, eh?

2009: 611 RA, NL average 727; RA/lgRA 0.84

2010: 583 RA, NL average 705; RA/lgRA 0.83

2011: 578 RA, NL average 673; RA/lgRA 0.86

2012: 346 RA, NL average 368; RA/lgRA 0.94

No surprises, really. We know the staff is giving up more runs this year. The question is, will this trend toward average-ness continue? And will that hurt the team's chances? If the answer to the second question is "yes" (and I think it is) then we have to hope the answer to the first question is "no" (and I think it is). The Giants will find a fresh arm or two for the 'pen, and the laggards and slackers will pick it up. This I believe. Random events (injuries, for example) can derail the best-laid plans, so we'll just ignore them, OK?

The Second Half is upon us! I feared the Baseball Gods would punish Giants fans for stuffing the ASG ballot box, instead they blessed us for it. Let us hope they continue to bless the rest of the season. Perform your ablutions and make your sacrifices, my friends, the dark forces must be propitiated!

GO GIANTS!

--M.C.

The Cain runneth over

That was some serious Cainousness in the All-Star Game. Major Cainosity. Full-on Cainitude. That was as Matt Cain as a Matt Cain game can be. A lucky hit, a pop fly, a deep fly out (that the announcers thought was a homer), and a stirring, swinging whiff of the HR king, a hard-working 23-pitch zero, only to be followed up by a six-pitch mow down of some more big guns for another zero. Does that sound like a Cain game to you? Just beautiful, Matty. Just beautiful. And you have love two hits, a walk, three runs and three RBI for three Giants in the 1st. Like I said, beautiful. Whatever else happens, I don't care. Our boys represented!

--M.C.


UPDATE: Melky Cabrera goes deep! The NL hits for the cycle! Giants 5, AL 0.


UPDATE (8th inning): Clearly it is an "M.C. Squared" night, Matt Cain for the WIN and Melky Cabrera for the MVP. Am I right?


UPDATE (post-game): It's official, Melky is the MVP. So well deserved.

At the Break

In 2009, the Giants were 49-39 (.557) at the All-Star Break, but slumped a bit in the second half (39-35, .527) to finish in 3rd place, seven out, with an 88-74 record (.543). In 2010, they were two games worse at 47-41 (.534), but turned on the jets after that (45-29, .608) on the way to an NL West title (92-70, .568). They went 11-4 (.714) in the post-season to grab the crown. Last year there were 92 games before the Break, and the Giants racked up 52 wins against only 40 losses (.565). Unfortunately they stumbled badly the rest of the way (34-36, .486) and finished in second place, eight games out (86-76, .531). At 46-40 so far this season, they are tied with the Mets and the Cardinals for the sixth-best record in the NL. The Nationals, Pirates, Reds, Braves, and Dodgers are better, and the latter two by a mere half game. In the AL, only the Yankees, Rangers, Angels, and White Sox are playing above the Giants .535 pace. You have to think that a cumulative regular-season record of 312-260 (.545) since that breakout year in 2009 is pretty damn good, and ought to be the envy of many franchises. The club has not had a run like this since those 1997-2004 teams that averaged 92 wins per year and made four playoff appearances and won a pennant. Overall, including a 12-16 post-season record, they played .567 ball, which edges out the current club's .550 overall percentage.

Historical perspective is good in baseball. You have to take the long view in this game, because daily and weekly results can drive you mad. The Giants rode a streak of 36 scoreless innings to the top of the division only to blow it all with a wretched 2-7 stretch immediately after that. A 17-11 June with only 96 runs allowed loses a little luster when the team gives up 48 in the the first week of July. So let's get back to the long view. If they are indeed a .550 team, then we should expect 42 more wins which would only net them 88 overall. It might be enough to win the West, but it is not exactly promising. If they can play .600 ball the rest of the way, that would mean 46 more wins and 92 overall. I like that. 92-70 worked out well for San Francisco in 2010, and it would likely be enough to grab a playoff spot in 2012. Either way it doesn't look like the current .535 is going to cut it. Even if you think the Dodgers are pretenders and the Diamondbacks won't right the ship in time, the Giants will still have to separate themselves from the pack, and the only way to do that is to win lots more games. Ninety wins is usually a good target, that's 44 more, or a .579 pace the rest of the way. There are 17 games left in July, 29 in August, 27 in September, and three in October. Of the remaining 76 games, 39 are at home. The Giants are 26-16 (.619) at AT&T Park and 20-24 (.455) on the road. Those 37 away games loom large, especially since they finish the season with three in San Diego and three in LA. Let's shoot for 20-17 (.541) and 24-15 (.615) at the very least, shall we?

No matter how you slice it, it is going to be a close call, unless of course Tim Lincecum suddenly reverts back to The Franchise and runs out a dozen killer starts. I think he will find himself, but it won't be like flipping a switch. When you are in a deep hole you don't get out in one leap. It takes a lot of scrabbling first. So the rest of the team will have to do as well as they are already doing, and some other guys are going to have to improve. I pick Jeremy Affeldt and Javier Lopez, the highly-paid lefty specialists who are pitching like generic relievers so far. Gregor Blanco and Angel Pagan could stand to get their collective mojo back, and a bench guy like Nate Schierholtz could step it up, too. The Giants are last in the NL in pinch-hits with 15, for example. They need someone who can come in late and contribute with the stick. And the recurring power shortage (51 HR, tied with LA for last in the league, and 215 XBH, next-to-last with LA at 207) needs to be addressed. Perhaps the All-Star third baseman can get his big bat going again. With Freddy Sanchez out for the year, Ryan Theriot becomes hugely important. I really wish Bochy would not bat him second as his .632 OPS will not cut it there. That's too many PAs for a weak bat, I don't care how good he is at the hit-and-run or "moving the runner over" or any other dink-ball bullshit. Melky Cabrera can do everything The Riot can do and do it a hell of a lot better, so I say move M.C. to that spot and everyone else up one more notch. How about Buster Posey or Pablo Sandoval guaranteed an at-bat in the first inning of every game? Doesn't that sound good? Get the best hitters up sooner and more often and the team will score more. But I think that's a vain hope. Ol' Boch does a hell of a job with the pitching staff and with player attitude and morale, the two things a manager has to do properly. We are lucky to have him. But lineup construction is a weak point (how about Brandon Belt, .358 OBP, hitting second?), and even though the improvement may be marginal, this team needs every run they can squeeze out.

The 2012 Giants are in a good spot. They can legitimately call themselves contenders. They've managed to survive a historic collapse by their most valuable player. As long as the starters remain healthy and productive they will stay in the thick of it. Some shoring up of the bullpen may be inevitable, but I think we should be confident that The Brian Trust can find another arm, as that's their forte. A little lineup help would be good, too, but that's tricky. Mostly, they'll have to rely on the guys they have. Perhaps youngsters like The Brandons and Hector Sanchez will chip in a little more down the stretch. Mostly, though, the team needs Timmy. Even with a wide-open division, with no clearly dominant team, the Giants can't afford to throw away starts. The two other teams in the race have been hurt with key injuries (Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Daniel Hudson, Stephen Drew, Joe Saunders) and have some guys under-performing (Justin Upton, James Loney), and that's been a boon to the Giants. We all know how hard it is to win when your guys are on the DL.

Ever since Atlee Hammaker gave up a grand slam to Fred Lynn in the 1983 All-Star Game, I get the heebee-jeebees when a Giants pitcher gets the ball. I shouldn't, I know, but I do. That was another one of those deeply scarring events. I'm obviously happy for Matt Cain, and he is certainly deserving of the starting honor. Not only that, he's NOT Atlee, and will do just fine against the AL. Need proof? Check this out. And there have been successful Giants All-Star pitchers since then (Jason Schmidt and Brian Wilson come to mind, and Timmy survived his start, if I remember). Mets fans have a beef about R.A. Dickey, to be sure, but they owe Tony LaRussa their wrath, not the Giants. I'm convinced he picked Cain because everyone expected him to pick Dickey, and we know how Tony loves to be contrary. Let's hope the NL wins eh?

GO GIANTS!

--M.C.

Nats serve notice

The Washington Nationals torched Madison Bumgarner today, tossing him aside like he was Tim Lincecum, dominating in all facets of the game and pounding the Giants once again. If the Dodgers win tonight they'll be back in first place, just to rub salt in it, which can't be much worse than what we've had to watch so far. I am happy to see Pablo Sandoval put on a show in advance of his All-Star appearance. I don't care who makes the All-Star Team, and the sooner it becomes a truly meaningless exhibition again the happier I will be, but if our guys are there I want them to flash All-Star stuff. Don't you? Plus a hot Panda will really help the Giants score more runs down the stretch. But the problem in D.C. has not been run-scoring. The team has in fact looked thoroughly Giants-y at the plate, and just as thoroughly un-Giants-y with the ball. The Freak and The Bumbino looked like rookies against the Nats, who hit good pitchers' pitches as well as mistakes, and from both sides of the plate and to all parts of the yard. It will be up to Matt Cain tomorrow to cool them off, and that's a tall order. I said before the series it would be a good test for the team--they could bring their "F" up to a "C" with a win.

GO GIANTS!

--M.C.



p.s. Happy Independence Day!

It's on like Donkey Kong

The Giants have played 80 games and find themselves one game up in the NL West with a 45-35 record. Their "Pythagorean" or "expected" W-L record is only 42-38 (317 RS, 301 RA) and I've no doubt we can attribute that to the presence of so many All-Stars. Either that or Bruce Bochy is a genius, pick which one you like. The Reds are the second of three first-place teams the Giants play consecutively. The Washington Nationals are next and they have the best record in the NL. I'm not sure it matters with the Giants, but they do miss Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez, both who have been sensational in 2012. They follow that hot, humid East coast swing with three against the Pittsburgh Pirates, who are in second place in the NL Central with a 42-36 record, a game behind Cincinnati. That's four good teams right before the Break. If you were looking for a yardstick to judge the club, this is as good a stretch as you'll get.

It looked bad on Sunday after another excellent start by Ryan Vogelsong. Somehow Santiago Casilla managed to stop the bleeding in the 9th, and a freaky misplay by Jay Bruce in the bottom of the inning salvaged the win, but it was close. Giants really needed a big hit to pad the lead earlier in the game, but when you are 25th in baseball in SLG that's a reach. It's hard to believe there are teams who are worse, but there are: Tampa Bay, Oakland, the Dodgers, Seattle, and San Diego. I think both Pablo Sandoval and Brandon Belt are going to have to supply some pop in the second half. Otherwise it is pitching, pitching, pitching. The four teams I mentioned in the first paragraph are the four teams ahead of San Francisco in runs allowed: Nationals (268), Pirates (291), Dodgers (294), and Reds (298). None of the five have a particularly potent offense, only the Reds (4.24 rpg) score above the league average (4.20). Stabilize the defense, get Tim Lincecum back, and shore up the 'pen are obvious improvements, and the first two seem to be trending in the right direction. Javier Lopez has not been Mr. Automatic in 2012 (20 hits and 9 walks in 16-1/3 IP), the closer has had a shaky stretch, and some of the names at the bottom end (Shane Loux and George Kontos) are not inspiring. I imagine the Brian Trust will make another move in that department. Oh, and let's get Gregor Blanco going again!

GO GIANTS!

--M.C.

By the numbers

Brian Wilson just blew the save so I'm back at my desk and keyboard. Don't worry--it's only a 'Giants Classic' on Comcast. I was recently asked what I do when there's no baseball on TV and I said "wait for baseball season." It's nice that the crew at Comcast fills in the post-ASB doldrums with some baseball. This re-broadcast is the Home Opener on April 8th. I was lucky enough to be there, in the CF bleachers, section 141. Buster Posey just worked a 9th-inning, two-strike, two-out walk after an Aaron Rowand hit. Oh, I miss that lad. Get well soon, Buster. Pablo Sandoval flashed the new, improved 2011 Panda model with a game-tying hit. We are going to extras, folks. I also was lucky enough to see Matt Cain whiff eleven guys in a complete game win over the Nats. That was June 8th, this time in section 108, some very nice lower deck seats (scored by Zo). Jim Riggleman was still at the helm in D.C. Finally, I got to see Tim Lincecum beat the Mets on July 9th. It wasn't flashy, but it was a win, and that's what counts. The Giants scored all their runs on ground balls that could have been double plays but weren't, baseball prowess worthy of saga and song. This time it was the upper deck, section 310. I got the very cool striped socks--when you see them on me you will want them. Not bad for living 300 miles away, eh? The Giants just turned a hit, a blown DP, an error, an intentional walk, and a booming drive to the wall in left-center (all with two outs) from the aforementioned Rowand to win in the 12th. You knew they would, right? If it had been Cody Ross or Andres Torres (or Rowand) out there, we all would have expected it to be caught. Colby Rasmus just didn't have the magic that day.


52-40 (.565) after 92 games is a 91- or 92-win pace (91.565 to be more precise). Here's an inning-by-inning breakdown:

1st (games  1-18): 10-8

2nd (games 19-36): 10-8

3rd (games 37-54):  9-9

4th (games 55-72): 10-8

5th (games 73-90): 11-7

The team is already up 2-0 in their next set of 18 games. They will finish the 6th inning on Sunday, the 31st of July (game 108) in Cincinnati.


The Giants have played 92 games and have 70 remaining. If they play .500 ball they will finish 87-75, which will likely not be good enough. To get to 90 wins (that's what the 2nd-place Padres finished with in 2010) would require a 38-32 record (.543), and 92 wins (last year's total) would take 40-30 (.571). Last season the Giants played 74 games in the second half and went 45-29 (.608). If the 2011 Giants play .600 ball they'll win 42 games and finish 94-68. I like that. Let's shoot for 42 wins--after all, it's the Answer to Life, the Universe, and Everything.

How about March 0-1, April 13-12, May 16-12, June 17-11, and July 6-4? Slow and steady wins the race.

The Giants have played 48 road games scoring 205 runs and allowing 184. They are 24-24 despite the plus-21 run difference, an average score of 4.27 to 3.83 (so much for my obsession with RS > RA). The Giants have played 44 home games and boast a 28-16 record despite allowing 138 runs and scoring only 127, or a minus-11 run difference. That .636 win percentage comes on the heels of an average score of 2.89 to 3.14, surely a thumb-nosing of the baseball gods, those cruel, cruel creatures. May the magic continue. Dominus vobiscum, et cum spiritu tuo. Om mani padme hum. Hare Rama, Hare Krishna. O, Great Spirit. For those about to rock. Whatever! Keep it going, that's all I ask.

--M.C.

p.s. Oh, and a hearty congrats to Bruce Bochy for guiding the NL squad to victory. And to all the Giants for representin' the orange & black. Way to look like champions!

Comin' home

"Two outta three on the road ain't bad" keeps pecking away at me. I'm annoyed that the team let one slip away that was winnable and showed some rather shoddy play in the getaway game. I am too tired to look up whether or not the Giants stink in getaway games, so someone else do it, please. But I'm sure their record is lousy. I'll bet if I searched my own blog for the term "getaway game" I'll find the answer. It doesn't matter. The Giants won two of three from a good team in their yard. They scored 15 runs in one of the games, the +12 margin entirely responsible for the team's RS to finally be > their RA. But, they should have won. They bunted in the 1st--gave up an out--with Rowand on second. Why? Is the out--in that situation--worth the 90 feet? Man, that's hard to believe. Ol' Boch doesn't like the bunt much, but this team forces him to think like one of those string-pull talking Bobby Valentine dolls that says "he's trying to make something happen" (with actual voice emphasis). I don't know. I'm not bitching at Bochy for the relievers failing to get outs. I thought Vogie would get through seven, but it seemed like he was on the "first baserunner" leash. I would have let him try one more batter. If Jeremy Affeldt gets the out it's moot. The Tigers are a good club, give them credit, they battled back and played a little Giants ball by taking advantage of defensive lapses. I'm telling you, it's bad getaway game mojo.

--M.C.


p.s. Bruce Bochy did the right thing. Tim Lincecum goes to his 4th ASG, Brian Wilson to his 3rd, Matt Cain to his 2nd, and Ryan Vogelsong to his 1st. The Giants win with pitching. The Giants are the World Champs. Four pitchers in orange-and-black seems like an easy call. Madison Bumgarner is pitching just as well as the other three starters. Sergio Romo and Javier Lopez are ASG-worthy. Right on, Boch, enjoy it. And if you win you get home-field for the Series. Just like last time.

p.p.s. A's beat D-backs, Giants stay on top by three games.